Pokemon Cards Are Here to Stay – Ignore the Rumors of Their Demise!

With the shutdown of Pokemon TCG Online announced, some have wondered if this signals trouble for the future of Pokemon cards overall. Rest assured the Pokemon card game is alive and well! New generations will keep coming, vintage cards are soaring in value, and the collecting craze shows no signs of fading. Read on for the real deal on the state of Pokemon cards in 2022 and beyond!

The Pokemon TCG Online is Ending – But the Wider Card Game Will Live On!

In September 2022, The Pokemon Company made the shocking decision to close down the Pokemon TCG Online game on March 1, 2023. This free, digital way to play the Pokemon Trading Card Game had allowed fans to duel online with virtual card decks since 2011. Its demise after over a decade is the end of an era.

However, this does not spell doom for physical Pokemon cards themselves. The Pokemon Company was quick to confirm that ending this one online game does not impact real-world Pokemon card production. New card sets and in-person competitive play will continue as normal.

Why would Pokemon discard a popular online title but maintain the physical card game? Industry analysts believe the company has bigger plans in the works for a more immersive online experience. The Pokemon TCG Online will likely be replaced down the track by an upgraded video game bringing the card battle experience into the digital age.

So while it‘s sad to say goodbye to this particular online game, the Pokemon TCG itself is alive and kicking. For those who enjoy the hobby of collecting rare cards or competing in live tournaments, nothing will change. Production of new sets and cards continues at pace to keep up with demand.

Each New Pokemon Generation Guarantees New TCG Sets

Perhaps the demise of the Pokemon TCG Online game left some wondering – will they just stop making Pokemon cards altogether? Well, unless the entire Pokemon franchise shuts down, this will not be happening!

The Pokemon Trading Card Game is intrinsically tied to the overarching Pokemon brand including games, movies and toys. For as long as new mainline video games continue telling stories based in each new region and releasing 100+ new pokemon each generation, the TCG sets will keep coming every year too.

Pokemon videogame and TCG set releases by generation. Source: Bulbapedia

So far we are up to Generation 8 in terms of main games and cards. Pokemon Scarlet and Violet will kickstart Generation 9 later this year. The Japanese Pokemon Company has confirmed they already have plans mapped out for Generation 10 and beyond.

Unless the entire Pokemon franchise ends, the Pokemon Trading Card Game will keep being supplemented with new sets. As of 2022, the TCG is still going strong after 25+ years. With releases already scheduled numerous years into the future, and millions of loyal fans/customers worldwide, the cards won‘t be going anywhere!

What Factors Determine the Value of Pokemon Cards?

With Pokemon cards ranging from worthless bulk all the way into 6 or 7 figure price tags, what determines the valuation of a card? Let‘s look at the key factors:

Rarity

Rarity is the most basic factor. If a card had fewer print runs because it was a limited edition, or promo etc, then supply is lower while demand from collectors remains high. This imbalance leads to sky-high prices for the rarest cards. The most valuable Pikachu Illustrator is worth millions simply because only 39 exist.

Condition

For vintage cards, their condition greatly affects prices. A Charizard in flawless PSA 10 Gem Mint condition could sell for $300,000. But that same card with some scuff marks or wear may only fetch $50,000. Condition matters, so preserving cards in sleeves and cases pays off long-term.

First Edition Status

Whether a card is from the earliest print runs is also key. A 1999 First Edition Charizard sells for exponentially more than an unlimited print Base Set Charizard. Even though it‘s the same artwork, being first edition makes it far more sought-after by collectors.

Appealing Artwork

Iconic monster choices and artwork styles can make certain cards more desirable. A cute, brightly colored Pikachu card tends to be worth more than a Grimer! Holo and full art designs are also viewed as higher quality than plain illustrations.

Utility for Gameplay

Some promotional or tournament reward cards have abilities that make them legal for use in competitive play. Their utility in battles gives them a bump in price compared to cards only good for collecting.

Cultural Relevance

Iconic pokemon that resonate through nostalgia like Charizard and Mewtwo command higher prices than random less memorable monsters. Demand is amplified for key characters central to childhood memories.

Speculation

Hype and speculation around things like NFTs, collectibles, and alternative assets can cause pricing bubbles. But eventually the hype dies down causing spikes for ‘trendy‘ cards to drop off or crash in many cases. Stick to cards with tangible utility and history.

As we analyze the record-breaking sales, the most valuable cards tend to tick multiple boxes like being vintage, 1st edition, holo Charizards in perfect condition. But even recent cards can gain value if they have a compelling design or nostalgic character that captures public imagination.

Record-Shattering Pokemon Card Auction Sales

Let‘s look at some recent examples of Pokemon cards that have sold for mind-boggling amounts at auction:

Card Name/Description	Sale Price
Pikachu Illustrator Promo – 1 of 39 in existence	$900,000
Charizard 1999 1st Edition Holo – PSA 10 Gem Mint	$600,000
Blastoise 1998 Pre-Production Prototype	$360,000
Charizard – Shadowless 1st Edition Holo PSA 9 Mint	$350,000
Shiny Rayquaza Gold Star Promo – PSA 10	$325,000
Complete Pikachu Promo & Giveaway Set – 198 cards	$315,000
Venusaur – 1999 1st Edition Holo – BGS 8.5	$325,000
Charizard – Base Unlimited – PSA 10	$300,000

Data sourced from CBC, Dicebreaker

The above sales indicate a few common threads between the ultra-rare cards commanding 7-figure price tags – old, mint condition, holo, iconic pokemon. But it‘s not just the rare cards reaching astronomical levels. Even more ordinary Base Set holos are routinely selling for $1,000+ compared to a few dollars back in the late 90s!

How Many People Collect Pokemon Cards in 2022?

To understand where the Pokemon TCG market is heading, we need to look at the numbers around the size of the player base, collector market, and overall growth:

Metric	Statistic	Year
Global Print Run	>10 billion	Total cards to date
Competitive Players	1.38 million	2019 tournaments
Card Sales Revenue	$1.38 billion	2021 new cards
cards/accessories sold	6.6 billion	2021 units
eBay Pokemon Sales	574% increase	2021 vs 2020
Google Searches	Upward trend	2004-2022
TCG Market Size	$18.6 billion	2021 total
TCG Market Growth	1140% increase	2009 ($1.5bn) to 2021

Data sources: Statista, eBay, Google Trends, Pokemon.com

The standout statistics signalling strength are the huge upward spike in interest during 2021 across web searches, auction sales, and revenue. This indicates Pokemon is making a major commercial comeback. Even though some of that activity is speculative hype, the sheer size of the player base and young demographic bodes well for stability rather than just being a fading fad.

Industry experts like PWCC‘s Jesse Craig are even more optimistic:

"2021 was record setting for the hobby across the board. Trading cards are now firmly placed in the minds of the mainstream as alternative investments."

PWCC expects 2022 to eclipse 2021 with a larger active collector base thanks to media exposure and continued generational shift of millennials reliving childhood nostalgia.

Why Pokemon Card Values Should Keep Increasing Long-Term

There‘s understandable skepticism whenever an asset spikes wildly in value – is this just a speculative bubble? But several signs point to Pokemon maintaining stability and appreciating over a 5-10 year horizon:

• TCG revenue has nearly doubled each of the past 3 years; the market is far from saturation.
• The 25th anniversary in 2021 revitalized interest in Pokemon, sparking a new wave of millennial nostalgia.
• Cards remain culturally relevant as Pokemon still trends on social media via memes and influencers.
• Vintage sealed products are scarce – it‘s impossible for graded 1st Edition Booster Box supply to increase.
• Each year thousands of cards are lost, thrown away or damaged, increasing scarcity.
• As generations age, childhood nostalgia becomes extra sentimental and valuable.
• Major auction houses recognizing trading cards adds legitimacy as an asset class.

There are macroeconomic risks like recessions impacting discretionary spending. But the trends of the last 3 years signal there is still substantial headroom for the TCG to run. As Millennials age into higher income brackets, their appetite for chasing nostalgia will only grow.

Plus vintage Pokemon cards are now attaining a similar status as old school baseball cards – a legitimate collectible asset. Even if newer cards dip in value, the fixed supply quality chase cards will likely hold or increase value given historical demand and trends.

Identifying Potential Gem Cards in Your Collection

If you happen to have a stash of old Pokemon cards stored away somewhere, here are tips on spotting cards to get graded that may reap major rewards:

• Look for the original Wizards of the Coast logo from 1999-2003 sets – These are the vintage years when sets had smaller print runs.

• See if there is a "Edition 1" symbol – This first edition marker means the card is from the very initial batch made.

• Check the image has no shadow border – The shadowless cards are also more desirable.

• Feel for the texture of holofoil cards – Non-holo cards seldom have real value.

• Inspect the edges, corners, and surface for any flaws – Condition is everything, only grade flawless, mint examples.

• Target rare gold star cards and ex series e-reader holos – These variants are in demand.

• Prioritize iconic pokemon like Charizard, Pikachu, Blastoise rather than random Mons.

• Double sleeve and encapsulate graded cards – Protect that perfect condition and grade!

While no-one realistically expects to uncover a million dollar card in their closet, with some luck you may have some holos or promos worth a few hundred or few thousand dollars by today‘s market values. But act quickly if you do find potential gems – this boom isn‘t going to last forever!

Grading Companies are Profiting From the Boom

A side effect of more collectors hoping to have their old cards valued is huge demand for professional grading services. Let‘s take a look at some stats for PSA and CGC:

Company	Card Grades	Growth	Average Value	Wait Times
PSA	9.5 million	65% YoY	$736	12 months
CGC	4 million	233% YoY	$179	6-8 months

Data sourced from PSA, CGC, PWCC Q3 2021

The number of cards being sent in for grading is exploding in line with the wider Pokemon card boom. But this is causing massive delays of up to 1 year before graded cards are returned, due to the backlog. Grading companies are racing to expand capacity to meet demand.

The high average value of PSA-graded cards shows collectors are willing to wait and pay premiums for legitimized grades to maximize resale prices. Expect these delays to persist through 2022 until supply/demand rebalances.

Pokemon NFTs Attempt to Tap Into the Hype

Aside from physical cards booming, there has been growth in NFT digital collectibles looking to capitalize on the Pokemon trend. Projects like Pok???mon Digital Art Collection sell packs of digital Pokemon artwork and 3D figurines.

Given the brand power, these unlicensed projects are proving popular. More officially, The Pokemon Company itself is planning NFT releases, harnessing blockchain technology into their intellectual property.

But severe risks of scams, speculation, and sustainability issues plague NFTs as a whole. As Bill Chang, VP at PWCC stated:

"NFTs will need to transition long-term to more sustainable energy sources for longevity. NFTs as a technology and blockchain have potential, but are still not understood by the average consumer. Adoption will take time."

For most fans, physical Pokemon cards tap into tangible nostalgia more effectively than digital art NFTs. And real cards have actual scarcity compared to endlessly duplicated jpgs. But the NFT hype does indicate the branding power of Pokemon cannot be ignored.

Pokemon Card Investing – High Risks but Potential for Huge Rewards

Can Pokemon cards be a bona fide investment opportunity, or merely an entertaining hobby? The upside is huge – a rare Pikachu Illustrator purchased for a few thousand in 1998 could now fetch nearly $1million. Even regular 1st Edition Charizards have averaged 50-100X price gains long-term.

But there are several risks for investors hoping to buy cards and flip them down the track:

• Grading – Getting reputable grades to maximize value is crucial but expensive and time consuming.

• Storage/Preservation – Keeping cards in flawless condition over decades is essential but challenging.

• Timing the market – Prices can fluctuate wildly based on hype cycles and you want to sell when demand peaks.

• Authenticity – Spotting reprints and counterfeits becomes harder with vintage cards.

For most, a diversified portfolio of stocks/bonds/property makes more sense than Pokemon cards from a pure investment viewpoint. But for patient collectors playing the long game on the right high end cards, the profits can be extraordinary. Just be wary of scammers, do your due diligence, and never speculate more than you can afford to lose!

The Bottom Line – Pokemon Cards Are More Popular Than Ever!

While online forums will always have trolls gleefully posting "Pokemon cards are dying!" for attention, all observable data and trends point to the exact opposite being true.

Metrics around sales, revenue, player bases, website traffic, auction prices all continue notching up record highs. Vintage cards especially are attaining cult status as nostalgic collectible assets. There is no evidence whatsoever the Pokemon TCG as a whole is slowing down.

Yes, the ending of Pokemon TCG Online is the closing of a chapter. But the core card game itself continues going from strength to strength. As Millennials age into their prime spending years, their desire for nostalgia will not fade. An entire generation grew up catching em‘ all – and now they have the means to chase those memories.

Different individual cards will rise and fall in desirability over time. But the fixed supply of vintage chase cards ensures they will remain blue chip collectibles into the distant future.

For both players and investors, the real message is clear: the Pokemon TCG is here to stay! Forget the hype bubbles, ignore the trolls, and keep on collecting those cards. Gotta Catch ‘Em All!