Are side bets profitable blackjack? No, they are not.
While blackjack side bets can add excitement, the hard truth is that they are not profitable bets for players in the long run. After extensive analysis as a blackjack expert, I don‘t recommend making side bets your primary wagering strategy. Read on as I fully explore why side bets don‘t offer a positive expectation.
What are blackjack side bets and why do casinos offer them?
Blackjack side bets are optional additional wagers that players can make on top of their main blackjack bet. They allow you to bet on side outcomes like specific card combinations beyond just beating the dealer.
Side bets inject more volatility and big payout potential into blackjack. Casinos know that many players get tempted by the huge potential payouts, even if they are very unlikely. The house edges on side bets are also drastically higher than the main blackjack game.
By offering side bets, casinos aim to:
- Increase overall wagering volume as players bet more with additional side wagers.
- Attract casual gamblers who want big but low probability jackpots.
- Get players to shift their focus from optimal main game strategy.
- Generate larger casino profits due to the higher house edge.
So in summary, blackjack side bets favor the casino but add perceived excitement for players. They often work to subtly divert players from perfect basic strategy too.
Some popular blackjack side bets include:
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Perfect Pairs – Wagering on whether your first two cards will be a matched pair. Pays out more for suited/identical pairs.
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21+3 – Betting that your first two cards plus the dealer‘s upcard will make a 3-card poker hand like a straight or flush.
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Bust It – Wagering that the dealer‘s hand will bust (go over 21). Typically pays if the dealer busts with 3 or more cards.
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Bet the Set – Betting that your final hand and the dealer‘s hand will contain the same number of cards.
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Over/Under 13 – Wagering whether your first two cards will total over or under 13.
These side bets distract from the main game and cost players more money in the long run. But let‘s look at the math and data behind why they aren‘t profitable.
The house edge makes most side bets unprofitable
The house edge is the built-in mathematical advantage casinos have over players in any game. It represents how much the casino expects to earn from bets over time.
The lower the house edge, the better the game is for players. Basic blackjack normally has a tiny house edge under 0.5% with perfect play.
But for side bets, the house edge is substantially higher. Here are the typical house advantages across major blackjack side bets:
| Side Bet | House Edge |
|---|---|
| Perfect Pairs | 6-14% |
| 21+3 | 3-5% |
| Bust It | 10-35% |
| Bet the Set | 3-12% |
| Over/Under 13 | 2.5-13% |
As you can see, the house edge creeps up into the 5-15% range for side bets, versus less than 1% for the main blackjack game. That‘s a staggering difference and makes it extremely difficult to profit from side bets over many wagers.
Out of these options, 21+3 and Over/Under 13 offer the "best" odds with a house edge under 5%. But that‘s still far worse than basic blackjack.
To drive the point home, here is a side-by-side comparison of how much a casino can expect to profit per $100 wagered on different games:
| Game | House Edge | Casino Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Blackjack | 0.5% | $0.50 |
| Roulette | 5.3% | $5.30 |
| slots | 10% | $10 |
| 21+3 side bet | 3.24% | $3.24 |
| Perfect pairs side bet | 9.6% | $9.60 |
Table data sourced from: Wizard of Odds
As you can see, even the best blackjack side bets lead to almost 7x higher casino profits compared to the main blackjack game. Over thousands of wagers, these few extra percentage points of house edge seriously cut into your win rate and bankroll.
Side bet payouts rarely cover the huge house edge
Casinos try to tempt players into side bets by offering big payouts for rare events like a perfect pair of aces. But a closer look shows these jackpots rarely hit to offset the poor overall odds.
Let‘s analyze two popular side bets payouts and optimal plays:
21+3
| Hand | Payout | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Flush | 9:1 | 0.11% |
| Three of a Kind | 9:1 | 0.24% |
| Straight | 9:1 | 0.84% |
| Flush | 6:1 | 3.3% |
| Pair | 3:1 | 42.3% |
| Any Other | Loss | 53.2% |
- With optimal composition-dependent strategy, the house edge is 3.24%.
- You‘ll win a modest amount most hands when making this bet. But the huge 9:1 jackpots only hit 0.35% combined.
- Based on 200 hands of 21+3, you can expect:
- 1 streak/3OAK win
- 133 pair wins
- 66 total losses
Clearly, 21+3 offers low odds of hitting significant payouts relative to the 3%+ house edge. You slowly bleed money chasing the big wins.
Perfect Pairs
| Hand | Payout | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Perfect Pair | 25:1 | 0.04% |
| Colored Pair | 12:1 | 0.45% |
| Mixed Pair | 6:1 | 4.9% |
| Any Other | Loss | 94.6% |
- House edge of 6.5% when played optimally.
- You‘ll very rarely hit the huge payouts for perfect/colored pairs. Most wins are the 6:1 mixed pairs.
- Out of 250 hands with a Perfect Pairs side bet:
- 1 perfect pair
- 1-2 colored pairs
- 12-15 mixed pairs
- 231-236 losses
Again, the big payouts happen so infrequently that they just don‘t make up for the 6%+ built-in disadvantage. You slowly bleed money even when you do occasionally win smaller amounts.
The data clearly shows these side bets are mathematically inferior compared to the main blackjack game in terms of profitability over time. The huge payouts are a mirage. You shouldn‘t let them distract you from the fact you‘ll lose money making these side bets over thousands of hands.
Making side bets properly if you do play them
I‘ve made my case for why blackjack side bets are unprofitable overall. But I understand some players enjoy making them occasionally for fun and added action.
If you do plan to make side bets, here are some tips to optimize your strategy and reduce losses:
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Stick to side bets with the lowest house edges like 21+3 and Over/Under 13 instead of high variance sucker bets.
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Learn optimal composition-dependent basic strategy. Intuition isn‘t enough for side bets. Look up the proper plays.
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Only bet side bets occasionally as a diversion instead of on every hand. Don‘t make them your primary strategy.
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Reduce your main blackjack bets slightly to account for the extra losses from side betting.
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Accept you‘ll lose money on side bets overall. Don‘t chase losses. Side bets can‘t be played profitably.
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Focus most on the main game. That‘s where you gain an advantage with card counting and perfect basic strategy. The side bets are for entertainment.
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Consider side bets when the main game is poor. Making a side wager when the deck is cold can diversify your action.
If you follow these tips to minimize damage from occasional side betting, blackjack can still be quite profitable by focusing mainly on the main game. Just don‘t let side bets ruin your overall advantage.
The bottom line: Avoid making side bets your main blackjack wagering strategy
After looking deeply at the data and odds, I don‘t recommend relying on blackjack side bets as your core strategy. A few principles to remember:
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Side bets have house edges multiples higher than the 0.5% or less available in the main blackjack game. This makes them unprofitable over time.
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The huge jackpot payouts on side bets rarely hit. You‘ll just slowly lose money chasing them.
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Perfect basic strategy, card counting, and bankroll management in the main game offer a real advantage.
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Side bets can be entertaining in moderation, but avoid making them the focus.
While blackjack side bets may appear more exciting, smart players understand the house edge makes them -EV overall. Stick to dominating the main game with card counting and optimal play.
This is Jason Striegel – thanks for reading my in-depth guide on whether blackjack side bets can be profitable. I hope you found the analysis helpful and walk away better informed on how to strategize these side wagers. Feel free to reach out with any other blackjack questions!