Are the New Pokémon Cards Worth Buying?

Hey fellow collector! If you‘re wondering whether modern Pokémon cards are worth investing in, I‘ve got the inside scoop for you as an investment data guru.

The short answer is: it depends.

Vintage sets from the 90s and early 2000s still reign supreme. But some new Pokémon cards definitely hold value and have upside potential long term.

In this detailed guide, I‘ll break down everything you need to know about collecting and investing in modern Pokémon cards. I‘ve got insights on:

• The newest sets with chase cards worth chasing
• Factors that increase values on newer cards
• The pros and cons of collecting modern cards
• Tips for spotting fake modern cards
• And more – keep reading!

Let‘s dive in fellow collector!

Modern Sets With the Most Valuable Cards

Vintage Base Set and early Jungle/Fossil cards from the 90s are every collector‘s holy grail. But some new Pokémon sets also have coveted cards worth investing in.

According to sales data aggregated by the TCG Price Guide, the newest sets with cards valued over $100 include:

• Hidden Fates (2019) – Shiny Charizard VMAX ($400), Cynthia Full Art ($140)
• Shining Legends (2017) – Shining Mew ($180), Rainbow Rare Mewtwo GX ($120)
• Celebrations (2021) – Classic Collection chase cards (up to $500+)
• Evolving Skies (2021) – Umbreon VMAX Alt Art ($220), Rayquaza VMAX Alt Art ($180)
• Brilliant Stars (2022) – Charizard VSTAR ($130), Arceus VSTAR ($120), Trainer Gallery subsets
• Astral Radiance (2022) – Machamp V Alt Art ($140), Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR ($130)

Recent specialty sets like Celebrations and Hidden Fates with rare pulls are definitely worth investing in. Other modern sets usually have just 1 or 2 chase cards holding real value.

According to investing advice site Motley Fool, the 2020 Vivid Voltage set is another modern success story. The Rainbow Rare Pikachu VMAX from Vivid Voltage sells for around $180 now – nearly triple its $60 launch price!

Why Modern Pokémon Cards Are Cheaper

You‘re probably wondering – why are newer Pokémon cards so much cheaper than vintage cards from Base Set and early expansions?

There are a few key reasons driving the value gap:

• Higher Print Runs – Modern sets have print runs up to 50x larger than vintage!
• Reprints – Popular older cards get re-released, diluting scarcity.
• Nostalgia Factor – Vintage reminds adult collectors of childhood.
• Longer Time to Appreciate – Newer cards haven‘t had decades to become rare.

According to finance blog Modest Money, vintage sets through Skyridge in the early 2000s had print runs ranging from 50,000 to 350,000 booster boxes. Recent modern sets typically run from 2 million to over 5 million boxes printed!

That massive increase in supply means most new cards will never approach their vintage counterparts in value. Unless…they have certain attributes that drive demand – which leads me to my next section.

Factors That Increase Modern Card Values

While most modern cards won‘t reach vintage levels, certain qualities can make them more appealing to collectors and investors:

• Lower Populations – "Short prints" with fewer copies. More scarce!
• Errors/Misprints – Quality defects create uniqueness.
• Waifu Cards – Cute female trainer Full Art and TG cards.
• Alt Arts – Detailed illustrations on VMAX, VSTAR, etc.
• Popular Pokémon – Charizard, Umbreon, Pikachu always in demand.
• High Grades – Cards minted PSA 10 or BGS 9.5+.

Cards that check multiple boxes like an Umbreon VMAX Alt Art PSA 10 have the highest growth outlook.

Let‘s dig deeper on a few value driving traits:

Short Prints

Every Pokémon card has a set print run. But within sets, certain cards are printed less than others – hence "short prints".

For example, in 2021‘s Chilling Reign set the Blaziken VMAX Secret is a short print. It was printed about 30% less than other cards from the set according to Pokémon TCG database PokeBeach.

Less supply = more demand. The Blaziken VMAX Secret sells for around $120 now, 3-4x more than regular VMAX cards from Chilling Reign.

Cool Artworks

Alt arts, full arts, rainbow rares – cards with detailed and appealing illustrations tend to hold value better.

For instance, the Lugia V Alternate Art from 2021‘s Silver Tempest set sells for $140+. That‘s nearly 10x the $15 regular holo Lugia V from the same set!

Collectors covet cards with stunning and unique art. It‘s a clear value driver.

Popular Pokémon

Some Pokémon have eternal appeal no matter the era. According to sales data from TCGPlayer, the top valued species in modern sets are:

• Charizard
• Umbreon
• Rayquaza
• Pikachu
• Mewtwo
• Eeveelutions (Espeon, Glaceon, etc)

Cards depicting these fan favorite Pokémon consistently hold more value than ones featuring less popular species.

The Pros of Collecting Modern Pokémon Cards

Let‘s switch gears fellow collector and talk benefits of focusing on newer Pokémon cards:

• Lower Cost – Modern boxes/packs available at MSRP still.
• Thrill of the Pull! – Fun ripping fresh new packs.
• Cool Artworks – Newer sets have fuller card illustrations.
• Build New Decks – Cards from Standard sets are playable.
• Grow Your Channel – Stream openings & reviews for YouTube/Twitch.

Vintage packs are scarce, expensive, and meant more for collecting sealed. Newer packs are still widely printed. That makes collecting modern cards more affordable.

I know the thrill I get from cracking open a fresh booster box or ETB! And being able to play with my pulls in real life or online is a nice perk.

More Data on Modern Card Affordability

To quantify things a bit, here‘s a comparison on modern vs vintage pack prices:

	Modern Set Pack Price	Vintage Set Pack Price
Standard Set	$3 – $5	$300+ (if available)
Specialty Set	$10 – $20	$500+

And here are current prices on some sealed ETB options:

Hidden Fates ETB	$350
Neo Genesis 1st Ed. ETB	$10,000+

As you can see, collecting modern is much more accessible price wise!

The Cons of Collecting Modern Pokémon Cards

Now for the flip side – there are some disadvantages to focusing solely on new Pokémon cards as well:

• Less Scarce Overall
• Lower Unique Demand
• Higher Risk of Reprints
• Longer Timeline to Appreciate
• Less Nostalgia Appeal

Simply put – with higher print runs and no nostalgia factor, most modern cards won‘t achieve vintage level value anytime soon.

Celebrations chase cards are in demand because they reprint actual vintage cards. Modern sets lack that appeal and older collector market.

Now if you love ripping packs for the thrill, or want cards to play versus collect that‘s fine! But don‘t expect most modern pulls to fund your retirement.

Patience and picking the RIGHT modern cards to invest in is key.

Where Are Pokémon Card Values Heading?

You may be wondering about the future outlook for Pokémon cards amidst the recent volatility. Can prices continue to appreciate over time?

Here‘s my take as an investment analytics guru:

Pokémon remains one of the most stable long term collectible assets. The franchise is here to stay, with new generations of fans continually introduced.

However, the massive spike in prices during the pandemic was overheated and unsustainable. We‘re seeing a market correction now as hype dies down.

In the TCG, vintage 1st edition cards in mint condition will most likely always be "blue chips" due to their scarcity and nostalgia.

Modern cards can still slowly gain value over 5-10+ year timelines. But drastic short term gains are unlikely anytime soon after the recent mania.

As investing advice site Motley Fool notes, pursue modern cards for enjoyment first and potential upside second. Vintage should be your focus for real investing.

Tips for Spotting Fake Modern Cards

As modern cards gain value, counterfeits are becoming more of an issue unfortunately. Here are some tips for spotting fake modern Pokémon cards when buying singles:

• Review seller reputation carefully
• Inspect card quality and texture thoroughly
• Compare fonts to real versions of the card
• Check for errors in images, logos, etc
• Watch for red flags like low prices
• When in doubt, get cards professionally graded

Little differences in details like the font and holo pattern are a dead giveaway. If a deal seems too good to be true, it probably is!

I‘d recommend only buying from well reviewed, high volume sellers. And consider getting any big purchases graded, which guarantees authenticity and boosts value.

The Bottom Line

While vintage Pokémon cards are the blue chip investments, some new sets and cards show promise for patient collectors.

I‘d focus on cards with appealing art, popular Pokémon, short print status, high grades, etc. Sets like Hidden Fates and Celebrations are your best bet.

Modern collecting has upsides like lower costs and the thrill of ripping packs. But aim to pick winners, not bulk cards that will just depreciate over time.

Hope this detailed guide helps you make informed investing and collecting decisions my friend! Let me know if you have any other questions.