Can you bet on all outcomes of a game? An in-depth look

Hey there! As a tech geek and data analyst with a passion for sports betting, I wanted to provide you with an in-depth look at arbitrage betting and whether it‘s possible to guarantee profit by betting on all outcomes of a game. There‘s a lot of interesting math and statistics behind arbitrage, so strap in as I break it all down for you.

What is arbitrage betting?

Arbitrage betting involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event in order to lock in a profit. It aims to exploit different odds at multiple sportsbooks to guarantee a positive return regardless of the outcome.

For example, let‘s say the Patriots are playing the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Sportsbook A has the Patriots as -150 favorites, while Sportsbook B has the Eagles as +130 underdogs.

I could bet $150 on the Patriots at Sportsbook A, and $100 on the Eagles at Sportsbook B. Here are the possible outcomes:

• Patriots win: I lose my $100 bet at Sportsbook B but win $100 from my $150 bet at Sportsbook A for a $0 net profit.

• Eagles win: I lose my $150 bet at Sportsbook A but win $130 from my $100 bet at Sportsbook B for a $30 net profit.

Regardless of who wins, I lock in a guaranteed profit by arbitraging the odds difference between the two sportsbooks. This is the essence of arbitrage betting.

How big can profits get with arbitrage bets?

The profits from arbitrage betting are generally quite small, often only a few percentage points.

Let‘s look at another example:

• Sportsbook A: Team A +120 underdog

• Sportsbook B: Team B -130 favorite

For this scenario, I could bet $120 on Team A at Sportsbook A and $130 on Team B at Sportsbook B.

If Team A wins, I lose my $130 bet but win $120 x 1.2 = $144 from my bet on them, for a $14 profit.

If Team B wins, I lose my $120 bet but win $130 x 0.77 = $100.10 from my bet on them, for a $10.10 profit.

So in both outcomes I lock in a guaranteed profit between $10-$15. While it adds up over time, a ~10% return on investment is modest compared to the effort and risk involved.

According to data from Pinnacle Sports, one of the largest sportsbooks, the average arbitrage profit is just 3.5%. For a $100 bet, that‘s only $3.50 in profit. The yields are generally small.

Why can‘t I make huge guaranteed profits from arbitrage betting?

There are a few key challenges that prevent scalable arbitrage betting:

Bet size limits – Books restrict the max bet size to prevent arbitrage. At Pinnacle, limits can be as low as $50 for certain sports. Large bets needed to guarantee big profits will exceed limits.

Fast-moving lines – The betting lines change rapidly in response to betting activity. Arbing opportunities only exist for short windows before books adjust their odds. Any delay in placing bets will erase the edge.

Detecting arbitragers – Books use software to identify arbitrage bettors and limit or close their accounts. You can‘t fly under the radar for long.

The reality is it‘s extremely difficult to execute perfect arbitrage at scale to produce large guaranteed profits. The odds differentials are small and fleeting, and books don‘t tolerate arbers siphoning off money.

Okay, what about betting on ALL outcomes instead of arbitrage?

This is really tough to pull off. Let‘s look at a real example:

Say the Chiefs are playing the 49ers. A typical NFL game has a few broad potential outcomes:

• Chiefs win by 7+ points
• Chiefs win by less than 7
• 49ers win outright

To bet on all outcomes, you‘d have to place wagers on the Chiefs on the spread, Chiefs on the moneyline, and 49ers on the moneyline.

The problem is properly balancing the bet sizes. Bet too much on the Chiefs spread and you limit your profits if they win close or lose. But if you don‘t bet enough, you limit profits if they win big.

The narrow betting lines make it extremely difficult to find the right combination of bets to produce a solid guaranteed return. Any lopsided outcome will produce a loss. You have to nail the spreads and odds perfectly.

Evaluating other "bet on all outcomes" strategies

Let‘s evaluate other common strategies that involve betting on multiple outcomes:

Parlays – While parlays pay out big for multiple successful bets, one losing leg kills the whole parlay. You aren‘t guaranteed profit.

Teasers – Moving spreads in your favor increases the chance of winning each leg, but the payouts are lowered to compensate. Still no guarantee.

Round robins – Creative parlay combinations increase chances of winning part of the wager, but unlikely to produce foolproof returns.

Same game parlays – Fun for combining bets on one game, but each leg must hit to cash out. High risk of busting.

Ultimately, all of these "bet on all outcomes" strategies come with inherent risks and variability. While you increase your chances of winning part of the wager, guaranteed profits are virtually impossible to achieve in sports betting.

The verdict: stick to spotting advantageously mispriced bets

Here‘s my take as an experienced sports betting analyst:

Attempting to bet on all outcomes of a game, whether through arbitrage or creative parlay strategies, is generally not worthwhile. The profits tend to be quite small and elusive.

Rather than chasing guaranteed wins, your time is better spent identifying and selectively betting strong value opportunities. This involves:

• Having an analytical edge by creating accurate predictive models

• Understanding when the betting lines misprice teams

• Betting solid value opportunities and embracing the long run variance

Through research, data modeling and disciplined decision making, profits can be achieved without chasing arbitrage gimmicks.

Let me know if you have any other sports betting questions! I‘m always happy to dig into the data and share my insights. Wishing you good luck with your wagers.