Can you hedge a free bet? An in-depth guide
Friend, if you‘ve ever received a free bet reward from an online sportsbook, you may have wondered: can I hedge this to guarantee myself a profit?
The answer is absolutely yes. Hedging a free bet by making an additional wager on the opposing side can lock in guaranteed money in your account.
But there‘s more to hedging than just placing any two bets. To do it properly requires research, precise calculations, and careful execution.
In this comprehensive guide, I‘ll walk you through everything you need to know about hedging free bets – from the basic strategy to advanced tips and tools to do it like a pro.
By the end, you‘ll have expert-level knowledge to consistently profit from hedging free bets from any sportsbook.
Free bet hedging 101
Before we dive into specifics, let‘s make sure we‘re on the same page about what hedging a free bet means…
The basic process is:
- You place a real money wager that loses, earning you a free bet reward
- You use the free play on one side of a betting market
- You make an additional cash wager on the opposing side
This guarantees you make money no matter which side wins. Here‘s a hypothetical example:
- Initial bet: $100 on Chiefs -3 (-110 odds), loses
- Free bet reward: $100
- Hedge:
- Free bet: $100 on Chiefs -3
- Cash bet: $91 on Bucs +3
If the Chiefs cover -3, you win $90.91 from the free bet. The cash bet loses $91. Your net profit is negative $0.09.
If the Bucs cover +3, your free bet loses but your cash bet wins $82.73. That‘s your net profit.
Either way, combining the free and cash wagers produces a small guaranteed profit after the vig. This is hedging a free bet at its core.
Now let‘s dive into the details on how to do it successfully.
Should you hedge free bets?
Before hedging any free bet, it helps to understand the pros and cons of this strategy:
Potential advantages
- Guaranteed profit – removes the risk inherent in gambling
- Make the most of free bet rewards
- Protects your bankroll against big losses
Drawbacks
- Profit amounts are usually tiny
- Caps your profits; limits upside potential
- Requires extensive research and planning
- Can be seen as unethical by some
Hedging makes the most sense for large free bets where losing the wager outright would be devastating. The guaranteed return, while small, mitigates that downside risk.
Conversely, hedging very small free plays may not be worth the time and effort required to execute. You also cap your profit potential when you could just take a shot at a long odds payout.
There‘s no objectively right or wrong answer here. It depends entirely on your risk tolerance and the size of the free bet.
My advice is to hedge free bets over a certain threshold where losing the wager would hurt. For smaller free bets, it may be better to take your chances letting it ride on an underdog.
Is hedging free bets legal and allowed?
An important question many have is whether hedging free bets is allowed or if sportsbooks prohibit it.
The good news is hedging is completely legal and within the rules at most online sportsbooks.
Sportsbooks anticipate customers attempting to guarantee profit from free bets. The terms and conditions for these bonuses usually don‘t forbid hedging in any way.
I recommend carefully reading the T&C for any free bet offer before hedging to confirm there are no restrictions. But in general, books accept hedging as a legitimate strategy.
The only exception is on certain bet types like parlays and futures, where hedging can be prohibited. Make sure the free play you want to hedge can be used on point spreads, moneylines, or over/unders before placing the initial wager.
Of course, it never hurts to reach out to customer support and explicitly ask if hedging your particular free bet is allowed. But rest assured this strategy is completely legal and within bounds at regulated online sportsbooks.
How to calculate optimal hedge bet amounts
The key to successfully hedging free bets is determining how much to wager on each side. Get the amounts right, and profit is guaranteed. Calculate incorrectly, and you can wave goodbye to that free play.
To figure out the perfect hedge amounts, you‘ll need to know:
- The free play amount (e.g. $250)
- The odds for the free bet selection (e.g. -120)
- The odds for the opposing cash wager (e.g. +120)
You can then plug those variables into a free bet calculator which will determine the precise amounts to bet on each side.
Let‘s walk through an example:
- Free bet amount: $500
- Free bet odds: -200
- Opposing side odds: +180
Using the calculator:
- Free bet: $500 on Side A (-200 odds)
- Cash wager: $388.89 on Side B (+180)
If Side A wins, you win $250 from the free bet. The hedge on Side B loses $388.89 for a net profit of -$138.89.
If Side B wins, the free bet loses but the hedge pays out $700. Your net profit is $700 – $500 = $200.
The slight difference accounts for the vigorish the sportsbook charges. But either way, hedging results in a guaranteed profit.
So be sure to use a calculator you can trust to determine exact hedge amounts. It makes the process foolproof.
Hedging free bets step-by-step
Now that you understand the basics, let‘s walk through the full process to properly hedge a free bet:
Step 1: Identify a high-value free bet
Not all free bets are created equal. Keep an eye out for generous offers with the biggest potential payouts:
- Free bets above $500 in value
- Minimal playthrough or restrictions
- Long expiration period
Avoid low upside free bets just $50-$100 in size. The effort rarely justifies returns.
Step 2: Place a qualifying losing cash wager
Read the terms of the free bet promotion carefully. Make your initial real money bet in accordance with the stated rules to earn the free play reward.
Step 3: Research optimal wagers for the hedge
Once you receive the free play for your lost bet, start researching the best opportunities to use it for the hedge:
- Find wagers with the highest positive odds (over +200 ideally) to use the free bet on. This maximizes the potential payout.
- Identify optimal cash wager on the other side with roughly equal negative odds (e.g. -200).
- Shop alternate lines and other books to boost payouts on each side of the hedge.
Step 4: Use a calculator to determine hedge amounts
Plug the free bet amount, and the odds for each side into a calculator. It will compute the exact amounts to wager for a balanced hedge.
Step 5: Place both sides of the hedge
Make sure to get both the free bet and opposing cash wager down as close to simultaneously as possible before the lines move.
Step 6: Collect your profits!
Sit back and wait for your guaranteed earnings to hit your account shortly after the event settles.
Advanced strategies and tips
Now that you‘ve got the basics down, here are some more advanced tactics that can boost your free bet hedging:
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Watch line movements closely – Monitor betting trends and jump on optimum lines when they appear, before they move again.
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Utilize live betting – The shifting odds in live wagering markets present opportunities to find even higher payouts on each side of your hedge.
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Find +EV opportunities – Target wagers where the real odds are longer than what the book offers. This pads your bottom line.
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Bet correlated markets – Hedging across similar markets (player props correlated to game outcome, etc.) reduces variance.
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Shop for best pricing – Having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows you to find the optimal odds on both sides of your hedge.
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Use IF bets for bigger free bets – Breaking one large free bet into multiple IF bets can provide higher upside. Look for books that allow this.
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Pick bets with very low tie probability – Moneyline wagers in hockey and soccer have higher chances of a tie, reducing profit. Stick to spreads and totals with binary outcomes.
Mastering these advanced tactics takes time and practice. But they can help squeeze a few extra dollars out of your free bet hedges.
Mistakes to avoid
It‘s also crucial you sidestep these common mistakes that can blow up your free bet hedge:
- Hedging prohibited bet types like parlays and futures
- Failure to read the free bet terms and conditions
- Not checking betting limits before placing your hedge
- Hedging before you actually receive the free play in your account
- Calculating hedge amounts incorrectly
Avoiding these pitfalls takes discipline and care. But do your homework, and you‘ll be just fine.
How much profit can you expect from hedging?
A question newcomers always ask is: how much can you realistically earn from hedging free bets?
The short answer: usually not very much.
Here are typical profit amounts from hedging various size free bets:
| Free bet amount | Expected profit |
|---|---|
| $25 | $1 |
| $50 | $2 |
| $100 | $3-5 |
| $500 | $15-25 |
| $1,000 | $30-50 |
As you can see, we‘re talking single digit or very low double digit returns even on sizable free bets.
The reason is sportsbooks build in around 5% house edge when balancing their lines. So your expected profit from any hedge is about 5% or less of the free play amount.
Don‘t go into hedging expecting to make bank. The benefit lies in guaranteed risk-free earnings, not big payouts. If you‘re seeking life-changing winnings, hedging isn‘t the way.
Will you get banned or limited for hedging?
Another fair question is whether hedging free bets too frequently will get you banned from sportsbooks.
The short answer is: you shouldn‘t, if you follow reasonable practices. Here are some tips:
- Don‘t blatantly hedge every single free bet you get. Use discretion.
- Keep your hedging profit amounts in line with expectations. Don‘t exploit loopholes.
- Make other sports wagers in addition to hedges. Don‘t become a one-trick pony.
- Don‘t brag about hedging or insult books. Be discreet.
If your account shows consistent sports betting activity beyond just hedging, you should fly under the radar. Just don‘t abuse the privilege.
Data and examples
Let‘s run through some real examples of hedging free bets across different sports using 2022 data:
NFL free bet hedge
You receive a $250 free bet for the Chiefs vs. 49ers game.
- Free bet: $250 on Chiefs -135
- Cash hedge: $185 on 49ers +135
If the Chiefs win, you earn $185.19 from the free bet and lose the $185 cash bet. Profit = $0.19
If the 49ers win, the free bet loses but you earn $249.75 from the hedge. Profit = $249.75
Either way you‘re guaranteed a small profit from the hedge.
NBA free bet hedge
You earn a $150 free bet for Celtics vs. Heat game 7.
- Free bet: $150 on Celtics +190
- Cash hedge: $72 on Heat -190
If Celtics win, you get $285 from the free bet and lose the $72 hedge bet. Profit = $213
If Heat win, you lose the free bet but win $126 from the hedge. Profit = $126
Again, profit locked in through effective hedging.
MLB moneyline hedge
You get a $75 free bet for Blue Jays vs. Mariners.
- Free bet: $75 on Blue Jays +120
- Cash hedge: $60 on Mariners -130
If Blue Jays win, you earn $90 from the free play while losing $60 on the hedge. Profit = $30
If Mariners win, you lose the $75 free bet but earn $69 from the hedge. Profit = $9
Hedging on MLB moneylines carries higher tie risk, but profit can still be achieved.
Key takeaways
Here are the core lessons to master free bet hedging:
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Hedging locks in guaranteed profit by wagering a free play and cash on opposing sides
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Carefully calculate hedge amounts using the free bet size and odds on each side
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Hedging is permitted at most regulated online sportsbooks
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Shop for optimal odds and use calculators to execute hedge precisely
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Profits are usually small – $5-25 on typical free bets
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Avoid common mistakes like poor math or betting prohibited bet types
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Be discreet and reasonable; don‘t blatantly abuse
While profits may be small, hedging is a risk-free way to get the most from your sportsbook‘s free bet rewards. I hope this guide provides you a blueprint to start hedging like a pro.
Let me know if you have any other questions! Always happy to chat more about free bet strategy.