Demystifying Basketball Point Spreads: An In-Depth Look at What a +3 Spread Means

Hey there fellow basketball fan! If you‘ve ever been interested in betting on basketball games, you‘ve probably heard announcers and analysts talk about the point spread. Things like "they need to cover the +7 spread" or "the favorite is -2.5." I know point spreads can be confusing for beginners, so I wanted to really break things down for you in this guide.

Specifically, we‘re going to focus on what a +3 point spread means in basketball betting. I‘ll not only explain exactly how a +3 spread works, but also dive deeper into how spreads are set, different spread betting strategies you can use, the history of point spreads, and plenty of other key topics to help give you a full understanding.

Get ready to become a spread betting expert!

What Does +3 Mean in a Basketball Spread?

First things first, let‘s define what a point spread actually is in basketball betting.

The point spread is a number set by oddsmakers that serves as a projected margin of victory for the favorite team. The favored team has to win the game by more than the spread for bets on them to cash. The underdog team has to lose by less than the spread, or win the game outright, to "cover" the spread.

For example, if the spread is Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 vs Boston Celtics, the Lakers have to win by 7+ points to cover the -6.5 spread. Bettors taking the Celtics +6.5 would win their bet if Boston loses by 6 points or less, or wins the game.

This brings us to what a +3 point spread specifically means:

A +3 point spread indicates the team is a 3 point underdog.

With a +3 spread, the underdog team has to either keep the game within 3 points, or win outright, to cover their side of the spread bet.

So if you take the team +3, you win your bet in 3 scenarios:

1. The underdog loses by 1-2 points
2. The underdog loses by exactly 3 points (a "push" where you get your original bet back)
3. The underdog wins the game

This gives the underdog team a little wiggle room and some margin for error. Even if they don‘t pull off an upset win, they can still cover the spread by keeping things close.

Let‘s look at an example spread for an upcoming game:

Los Angeles Lakers -5.5

Boston Celtics +5.5  

Here the sportsbooks have installed the Lakers as 5.5 point favorites at home against the Celtics. For Lakers bettors to cash their bets, LA has to win by 6+ points. Celtics backers need Boston to either win straight up, or avoid losing by more than 5 points.

Hopefully this gives you a good grasp on what a +3 spread specifically means for the underdog team in a basketball betting line. Now let‘s get into more depth on how sportsbooks set these point spreads and other key concepts.

How Point Spreads Are Created

You‘re probably wondering how sportsbooks came up with that +3 spread in the first place. Setting the spread for each basketball game involves a lot of factors and analysis by the oddsmakers. Their ultimate goal is to set spreads so that they receive close to equal betting action on both teams.

To start, they analyze things like:

• Talent differential – How much better is one team based on player matchups?
• Home court advantage – Typically worth 3-4 points.
• Situational factors – Back-to-back games, injuries, rivalry games.
• Advanced stats – Efficiency metrics, four factors ratios, pace.
• Team trends – Recent performance, records against the spread (ATS).
• Public betting – Where are early bets falling?

Based on this analysis, oddsmakers come up with an initial spread that aims to handicap the two teams as closely as possible. One team is made the favorite with a negative spread, and the other the underdog with a positive spread.

The public then starts betting on the sides, totals, and moneylines for each game, often referred to as the "market" action. As more bets come in, sportsbooks will adjust the spreads accordingly if they need to encourage more action on one side.

For example, if 70% of bets are flooding in on the Lakers -6, the sportsbook may shift the line to -5.5 or -5 to get more Celtics action. These moves help them balance their risk.

The spreads you see when a game tips off represent the final judgement of oddsmakers on how many points they feel the favorite should be favored by based on all the information they have at their disposal.

Betting Against the Public

One strategy that some professional bettors implement when spread betting is called “fading the public” or “betting contrarian.”

This involves analyzing the public betting percentages and trends and then placing bets that go against the consensus picks. The logic is that the public is usually wrong, so going counter to their biases can provide value.

Some key numbers on public betting trends:

• Public bets approx. 70% favorites and 30% underdogs
• They bet over 60% of spread favorites ATS
• Around 25% of teams get over 50% of spread bets

By studying historical betting data and line movements, you can make calculated bets that fade heavy public leanings. For example, you can snap up +3 spreads when the public is slamming the favorite. This contrarian approach takes guts but can offer great risk-reward.

Buy Points for a More Favorable Spread

Another advanced spread betting technique is called buying points. This involves paying an extra premium, or "buying points," to get a more favorable spread from your sportsbook.

For example, let‘s say the Warriors are -7.5 point favorites over the Grizzlies. You think the Warriors will win, but question if they can cover such a big spread. Your sportsbook may allow you to buy some points to move the line to Warriors -5.5 or -6.5 for a cost.

Every 0.5 points is typically worth 10 extra cents in juice. So buying down 1 point on a spread might cost you an extra 20 cents of vig. While it eats into potential profits, buying key points can make a big difference in covering spreads long-term.

Teaser Bets – Adjusting Spreads for Lower Payout

Similar to buying points, some sportsbooks allow bettors to place "teaser" bets. This involves combining two or more spreads or totals from different games into a single parlay wager with adjusted, more favorable spreads, in exchange for lower +EV payouts.

For example, a standard 6 point teaser on a -3 spread might adjust it to +3. You reduce your risk by getting 6 extra points of cushion, but the payouts are lowered with more requirements to hit your bet. Teasers require correct picks on all legs and involve more strategy.

Hedging Your Bets

Savvy sports bettors will sometimes hedge their bets to guarantee profit. This works best with the wide range of spread and moneyline wager options.

Let‘s say you bet $100 on the Celtics +3 earlier in the week, but leading up to the game the spread moves to +4. You could place a new $50 bet on the Lakers -4.

If the Celtics win outright, you net $50 profit from your original bet. If the Lakers win by exactly 4, both bets offset for no gain or loss. Any other result pays out the winning spread bet. Hedging locks in guaranteed returns.

Watch for Steam Moves

Sharp bettors keep an eagle eye out for steam moves and line changes. If a spread on a team drops significantly, like from -7.5 to -6.5, it signals respected action by pros on that side.

Steam moves indicate smart money pouring in and can clue you in on which way sharp action is leaning. By jumping on the same side as sharp steam moves early, you gain an edge.

Apps like The Action Network provide alerts on notable line moves and where public/pro money is shifting.

Shop For the Best Lines

This may go without saying, but it helps to have accounts at multiple online sportsbooks to shop for the best lines. Comparing spreads at various books allows you to get an extra half point here or there which pads your advantage over time.

Over a full season, gaining that extra 0.5 points by line shopping could amount to covering 5-6 more spreads. Those marginal gains on spreads make a big difference to your bottom line. Some sportsbooks also offer bonuses for initial deposits that you can take advantage of.

Spreads vs Moneyline Odds

It‘s helpful to understand the key differences between spread betting and moneyline betting. With moneylines, you simply pick the team you think will win straight up without spreads involved.

However, the payouts vary greatly based on the perceived odds of each team winning. Big underdogs pay exponentially, while heavy favorites earn small profits. Moneylines are represented in terms of a $100 bet:

Bucks -400
Suns +500

Here the Bucks payout $25 profit on a $100 bet, while the Suns earn $500 profit on a $100 wager due to being underdogs.

Spreads even things out with fixed payouts and add excitement by handicapping the teams. Both options provide value in different situations.

A Brief History of Point Spreads

While their origins are disputed, credit for pioneering point spreads is often given to Charles K. McNeil, a math teacher in Chicago in the 1940s who later became a bookie.

McNeil came up with the idea of handicapping stronger NFL teams by certain points to entice bettors to still wager on dominant teams at attractive odds. This allowed bookmakers to take action on both sides of a game and revolutionized the sports betting industry.

By the 1950s, point spreads were adopted at casinos in Las Vegas for football and basketball. Their popularity grew through the 60s/70s before spreading more mainstream in the modern era. Spreads are now an integral part of sports betting.

Why You Should Track Your Betting

If you‘re going to bet point spreads, it‘s highly advisable to track your wagers in a structured way. Monitoring your spread betting in a spreadsheet or app will help you identify strengths, weaknesses, and long-term profitability.

Some metrics to track for each bet:

• Matchup & date
• Side(s) chosen
• Spread line
• Amount staked
• Result (win/lose/push)
• Notes on factors behind bet

Analyzing this data will provide insights on optimal spread ranges, ATS records, and other trends to hone your process. Proper tracking takes your betting to the next level.

And there we have it – now you should have a much more thorough understanding of what point spreads are, how they work in basketball, why a +3 spread favors the underdog, strategies for spread betting, and how to track bets.

I hope this guide serves as a useful reference as you get started handicapping basketball spreads. Let me know if you have any other questions arise @terrybetsball on Twitter. Good luck with your hoops spread betting journey!