Demystifying Double Chance and Both Teams to Score
Hey there fellow sports betting enthusiast!
As a long-time soccer fanatic and number cruncher, I want to share my insider knowledge to help you master two of the most intriguing markets – double chance and both teams to score.
Whether you‘re a stats nerd like me or just a casual punter, understanding these bets can really give you an edge. Let‘s dive into the key details so you can start winning more!
Double Trouble – What is Double Chance Betting?
I‘m sure you already know that most soccer match bets are based on the standard 1X2 market – home win, draw, away win.
Double chance betting flips this concept on its head by allowing you to cover TWO of those three outcomes in one bet.
How does it work exactly? Well, a double chance bet simply combines any two of the possible 1X2 results:
- Home OR Draw
- Home OR Away
- Draw OR Away
So for example, instead of just betting on Man United to beat Brighton, you could bet on Man United to win OR draw. This gives you two chances to win your bet!
It‘s a really clever way to increase your chances and reduce risk. But don‘t worry, the bookies aren‘t just handing out free money here. The trade-off is that double chance bets have lower odds to reflect the extra coverage.
Let‘s look at an example so you can see how it works in practice:
The upcoming Liverpool vs Everton derby has the following odds:
- Liverpool to win – 1.65
- Draw – 3.80
- Everton to win – 5.50
- Liverpool to win OR draw – 1.18
Here you can see that the odds for Liverpool to win OR draw are much lower than just betting on Liverpool to win outright. This shows the effect of covering two outcomes.
But say you bet $100 on Liverpool to win OR draw at 1.18. Here‘s how the different results play out:
- Liverpool win: You win $118
- Draw: You win $118
- Everton win: You lose $100
So with the double chance bet, the only losing outcome is an Everton win. By covering the draw as well, you give yourself an extra chance to win.
Make sense? Let‘s move on to see how BTTS works!
BTTS Bets – What Does Both Teams to Score Mean?
Along with double chance, Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is another hugely popular soccer betting market.
In fact, over half of all matches across major European leagues see BTTS land:
| League | % of matches with BTTS |
|---|---|
| English Premier League | 53% |
| Spanish La Liga | 55% |
| German Bundesliga | 51% |
| Italian Serie A | 51% |
With BTTS bets, you are predicting whether or not both teams will get on the scoresheet in a match. There are only two possible outcomes:
- Yes – Both teams score
- No – One or both teams don‘t score
That‘s it! No need to pick a winner or guess the correct score. As long as both teams score a goal, your bet wins.
Let‘s look at an example:
The upcoming Champions League clash between PSG and Bayern Munich has the following odds:
- BTTS Yes – 1.95
- BTTS No – 1.80
If you bet $100 on Yes at 1.95, here‘s what happens:
- PSG 2 – 1 Bayern: You win $195
- PSG 1 – 0 Bayern: You lose $100
- PSG 0 – 0 Bayern: You lose $100
As you can see, all that matters is that both teams score. The final result is irrelevant to your BTTS bet.
This simplicity is why BTTS is such a popular choice for recreational bettors and pros alike. When utilized properly, it can be a real value goldmine!
Now let‘s get into some betting strategies…
7 Proven Tips for Betting Double Chance & BTTS
Through my own experience plus hours of number crunching, I‘ve identified several key factors that will help you successfully predict double chance and BTTS outcomes:
1. Recent Form & Meetings
Quite obvious but can‘t be overstated – a team‘s recent results and head-to-head record are the most predictive indicators.
Some key questions to ask:
- Have they been scoring and conceding regularly in recent games?
- How have their recent meetings gone? High or low scoring?
- Are they in good form or suffering a slump?
Crunching the stats for form and previous meetings will give you a solid baseline when forecasting double chance and BTTS bets.
2. Home and Away attacking strength
A team‘s home and away scoring record figures highly in predicting upcoming BTTS potential.
Certain sides have extremely potent home attacks but struggle to score away from home. Others are prolific on the road but draw a blank on home soil.
Make sure to study the home and away splits – don‘t just look at overall seasonal data.
3. To BTTS or not to BTTS?
When deciding which matches offer the highest BTTS potential, I pay close attention to these key metrics:
- Goals scored per game – The higher the better
- Shots on target – More shots = more goals
- Failed to score % – Low is good
- Goals conceded per game – High is good!
Here‘s a snapshot of the EPL teams with the best BTTS stats:
| Team | Goals Scored | Shots on Target | Failed to Score % | Goals Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 2.5 | 5.8 | 15% | 1 |
| Man City | 2.5 | 5.3 | 15% | 1 |
| Chelsea | 1.9 | 4.6 | 25% | 1.1 |
| Tottenham | 2 | 4.2 | 20% | 1.3 |
| Arsenal | 1.8 | 4.4 | 25% | 1.2 |
Based on these numbers, matches involving Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea and Tottenham have the highest likelihood of producing BTTS results.
4. Who Wants It More?
Motivation is huge in soccer. Relegated or complacent teams often switch off, while title chasers keep fighting till the final whistle.
Before betting on BTTS, check if both teams have something to play for. Relegation battlers and title contenders are often super motivated and give maximum effort.
Teams on the beach mentally are best avoided for BTTS bets.
5. Shut That Backdoor!
For BTTS bets, goals conceded metrics are just as important as scoring stats.
Leaky defenses allow more goals, so matches with poor defensive teams should be targeted. I specifically look for:
- High goals conceded per game
- Low clean sheet %
Here are the EPL‘s worst defenses to target for BTTS bets:
| Team | Goals Conceded | Clean Sheets |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.8 | 15% |
| Norwich | 2 | 15% |
| Southampton | 1.7 | 20% |
| Everton | 1.7 | 25% |
Betting on these porous backlines to concede goals is a recipe for success. Hold that backdoor open please!
6. Shop Around for Value
This may go without saying, but it‘s critical to compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to find the best value prices.
BTTS and double chance odds can vary significantly between books. I target odds of:
- 1.60 or higher for BTTS
- 1.30 or higher for double chance
Anything below those thresholds doesn‘t offer enough potential reward to justify the risk. Don‘t be afraid to wait for lines to move in your favor either!
7. Combine Strategically
Including double chance and BTTS bets as part of accumulators and round robins with other markets (spreads, totals, props) is an excellent way to increase odds.
Just a couple of pieces of advice here:
- Don‘t overload accumulators with too many legs
- Try to add safer double chance or BTTS selections to balance risk
If utilized properly, these bets can be the icing on the cake of a well constructed parlay.
So there you have it – my top 7 tactics for taming these tricky markets and landing more winning bets!
Now let‘s tackle some common questions…
FAQs – Your Double Chance & BTTS Questions Answered!
I get a lot of repeat questions about double chance and BTTS betting. Here are the ones I‘m asked most frequently, with my expert answers:
Q: Is there a way to forecast BTTS more accurately than just guessing?
A: Rather than guessing, utilize stats like shots on target, goals per game, and defensive metrics. Trends over a reasonable sample (8-10 games) are most predictive. This allows you to make informed, data-based decisions.
Q: Which soccer leagues see the most BTTS goals?
A: The English Premier League, Bundesliga, and MLS are goldmines for BTTS betting. Over 50% of matches in those competitions produce both teams scoring. On the flip side, Italian Serie A and La Liga tend to be more defensive oriented.
Q: What causes BTTS odds to fluctuate?
A: Injuries to key attackers or defenders can cause BTTS odds to shift. Schedule congestion that leads to squad rotation also impacts scoring potential. Betting trends and money flows will lead to line moves too.
Q: Should I avoid adding too many double chance bets to an accumulator?
A: Absolutely. Double chance bets seem "safer" but too many together will still kill your odds. I don‘t recommend more than 2 in any single accumulator. They are best used sparingly.
Q: Which competitions offer the most double chance value?
A: The English Championship, League One and League Two are great for double chance betting. The league table positions change rapidly week to week, leading to odds that don‘t reflect realities on the pitch.
Let‘s Bring Home The Win!
Thanks for taking the time to read my complete breakdown of double chance and BTTS betting. I hope you now have the confidence and knowledge to crush the bookies with these intriguing markets.
If you have any other soccer betting questions, feel free to hit me up. I‘m always happy to help out a fellow footy fan.
But for now, let‘s go make some cash! I predict plenty of goals and winning bets in our future. Cheers!
