Demystifying Moneyline Odds: A Bettor‘s Guide to +115 and More

Hey friend, are you confused by moneyline odds like +115 when you‘re trying to bet on your favorite sports? As a seasoned sports bettor and data analyst, let me walk you through exactly how moneylines work, what the numbers mean, and how to use them to start winning more bets.

Stick with me, and you‘ll be reading moneylines like a sharp in no time!

What Does +115 Mean on a Moneyline?

Let‘s start with a common example:

Team A +115

Team B -130

These are moneyline odds for an upcoming game between Team A and Team B. The plus sign (+) identifies Team A as the underdog, while the minus sign (-) marks Team B as the favorite.

The numbers indicate the potential payout on a $100 bet.

For Team A at +115 odds:

• A $100 bet would return $215 total ($115 profit + $100 original wager)
• A $50 bet would return $107.50 total ($57.50 + $50)

So the +115 means you profit $115 for every $100 you risk on the underdog.

Now let‘s decode Team B‘s moneyline odds of -130:

• A $130 bet is needed to profit $100
• A $100 wager would return $230 total ($130 risked + $100 profit)

The -130 indicates the favorite and shows how much you need to bet to win $100.

Make sense so far? Let‘s dive deeper into moneylines.

How Moneyline Odds Are Calculated

Sportsbooks determine moneyline odds based on the expected probability of each team winning. This is often quantified in terms of an implied probability percentage.

For example, odds of +300 translate to an implied win probability of 25% (calculated by 100/300 = 0.25). Odds of -200 give an implied probability of 67% (100/200 = 0.67).

To calculate the payouts on varying moneyline odds:

Favorites: Take the risk amount divided by the moneyline odds, then multiply by 100.

Risk Amount / Odds x 100 = Potential Profit

Underdogs: Take the moneyline odds divided by 100, then multiply by the bet amount.

Odds / 100 x Bet Amount = Potential Profit

Let‘s see some examples:

-150 favorite: $150 risked returns $100 profit
+210 underdog: $100 bet returns $210 profit

-125 favorite: $125 risked returns $100 profit
+275 underdog: $100 bet returns $275 profit

As you can see, the higher the odds, the greater the potential payout. This compensates for the lower perceived chance of an underdog winning outright.

Digging Into the Math Behind Moneyline Odds

Sportsbooks use advanced quantitative modeling to project game outcomes and set accurate odds. But at the core, the math behind moneylines is based on simple probabilities.

The fair odds for any moneyline wager should be proportional to the implied win probabilities.

For example, let‘s say Team A has a 60% chance to beat Team B, which has a 40% shot. The fair odds would be:

Team A: 100 / 60 = -167
Team B: 100 / 40 = +250

Now let‘s say Team C is a heavy 80% favorite over Team D at 20%:

Team C: 100 / 80 = -125
Team D: 100 / 20 = +500

As you can see, the higher the probability, the lower the moneyline odds on the favorite. And the lower the probability for the underdog, the higher their plus-money payouts.

This relationship ensures the sportsbook has a built-in mathematical edge on both sides of a wager.

Why Betting Underdogs Offers More Value

Seasoned sports bettors know that betting underdogs, especially in spreads, is the most profitable betting approach long-term. The same principle applies to moneylines.

Let‘s look at some real odds to demonstrate:

Denver Broncos +340
Kansas City Chiefs -450

To have a break-even wager with a 10% vig, the Chiefs would need to actually have an 82% win probability to justify -450 odds. Does that sound right for an NFL matchup? Probably not.

By contrast, the +340 odds on Denver equate to an implied 23% win probability. That‘s likely much closer to their true chances, making them a good value bet.

In general, the larger the favorite, the greater the discrepancy between the posted odds and realistic win probability. More value lies with the underdogs.

My Favorite Moneyline Betting Strategy

So what‘s the best approach for betting moneylines to maximize profits? I recommend targeting moderate underdogs in close matchups.

For example, in a game between two solid but evenly matched teams, you may see odds like:

Team A -120
Team B +110

In cases like this, I‘ll bet the +110 underdog all day long. The difference between -120 and +110 odds is insignificant compared to the actual chances either team wins.

The payout for +110 is nearly even money, but this wager carries less risk than betting a similarly priced -110 favorite.

Over a season, consistently grabbing plus-money payouts on pick‘em type matchups leads to a positive bottom line. You don‘t need to hit a huge number of underdogs to make it profitable.

Shop for the Best Odds & Lines

One final tip—always compare odds across multiple sportsbooks! Each book is balancing their own exposure, so moneylines and payouts can vary.

For one game I saw:

Sportsbook 1:
Team A +105
Team B -125

Sportsbook 2:
Team A +115
Team B -135

For the same $100 bet on Team A, Sportsbook 1 pays $205 total while Sportsbook 2 returns $215–a big difference!

Never place a moneyline bet before shopping around first. Over a season, grabbing an extra 5-10 cents on each game adds up.

OK my friend, now you‘ve got all the tools to crush moneyline wagers like a pro! Let me know if you have any other sports betting questions. I‘m always happy to help educate fellow bettors.

Now go grab that plus money!