Does Microsoft buying Activision mean the end of Call of Duty on PlayStation?

Hey friend! As you may have heard, Microsoft rocked the gaming world when it announced plans to acquire Activision Blizzard for a massive $68.7 billion. This has big implications across the industry, but one of the biggest questions is what happens to Activision‘s Call of Duty franchise – specifically whether the popular first-person shooter series will remain available on PlayStation systems after the deal closes.

As a long-time gamer and industry analyst, I‘ve been following this saga closely. While nothing is certain yet, I wanted to share my insights on the deal and what it could mean for the future of Call of Duty on PlayStation.

A Quick Look at Call of Duty‘s Market Position

Just how important is Call of Duty? Take a look at some key stats:

• Over 400 million Call of Duty games sold life-to-date worldwide
• Top 3 best-selling console franchise annually since 2007
• Estimated 70+ million global monthly active users currently
• Generated over $3 billion in net bookings in 2020 alone

PlayStation in particular has enjoyed strong ties with Call of Duty:

• Roughly 30% of Modern Warfare 2019 sales were on PS4
• PlayStation has typically secured 1-year exclusive early access for new CoD content
• PS4 has had between 25-30% of total CoD player base in recent years

It‘s no exaggeration to say Call of Duty is one of the most influential console franchises ever created. Losing exclusivity would be a huge blow, especially for PlayStation which has relied on it to drive engagement.

What Exactly Has Microsoft Said?

Since announcing the deal, Xbox head Phil Spencer has stated publicly that Call of Duty will continue to be available on PlayStation as long as PlayStation exists.

Specifically, he said "it’s not our intent to pull communities away from [PlayStation] and we remain committed to that."

This echoes similar sentiments from Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who highlighted that the company wants to bring Activision Blizzard‘s games to more people on more platforms.

Based on these comments, it sounds like Microsoft does not plan to make the Call of Duty series exclusive to Xbox and PC only. But is their word enough?

How Past Acquisitions Have Played Out

Looking back on other major gaming acquisitions provides useful context:

• Mojang (Minecraft): Remained multiplatform after 2014 purchase by Microsoft
• Zenimax/Bethesda: Studios like Doom now Xbox/PC exclusive after 2020 purchase
• Bungie: Split from Microsoft in 2007 and retained Destiny IP rights

There are arguments on both sides here – Microsoft has left some franchises multiplatform, while taking others exclusive. A lot depends on what makes the most strategic sense.

And when considering strategy, Xbox boss Phil Spencer has hinted that taking Call of Duty away from PlayStation could actually hurt Microsoft‘s gaming revenues overall – at least in the short term.

What a CoD Exclusive Could Mean for PlayStation

Sony has held a commanding lead over Xbox this console generation, with more than twice as many PS5s sold to date as Series X/S.

But without access to one of gaming‘s premier online shooter franchises, it could be advantage Xbox moving forward:

• Loss of recurring revenue: PlayStation currently gets a portion of in-game purchases and DLC packs sold through CoD titles. This recurring spending could shift entirely to Xbox ecosystem.

• Less reason to choose PlayStation: For online multiplayer gamers, playing CoD is a primary reason to be on PlayStation. Take that away, and Xbox becomes more attractive.

• Subscribers flock to Game Pass: Making CoD exclusive to Xbox and Game Pass membership would drive more subscriptions from PlayStation owners.

Based on these impacts, losing Call of Duty could be devastating for maintaining PlayStation‘s market leadership next console generation.

What Could Happen to CoD on Nintendo Platforms?

While the focus has been on PlayStation, Call of Duty also has a presence on Nintendo Switch via legacy titles.

Microsoft has said they plan to keep the franchise on Switch for 10 years should the Activision Blizzard deal close.

Bringing full new CoD releases to Switch could be challenging due to hardware constraints, but I‘d expect to see Microsoft leverage the IP more on Nintendo platforms regardless, especially with cloud streaming technology improving.

Potential Ripple Effects for the Industry

Stepping back, this deal is about much more than just Call of Duty. We could see major ripple effects across gaming:

• If CoD goes Xbox/PC exclusive despite assurances, it could damage industry trust in Microsoft
• Sony could feel compelled to acquire and lock down its own major third party franchises in response
• Other publishers and developers may see retained independence as better for flexibility and profit
• Valve‘s Steam platform could make deeper pushes for exclusive PC content
• The focus on subscriptions over storefront purchases could accelerate

Ultimately, moves that reduce consumer access to beloved franchises could backfire by fueling competition and mistrust.

Will Call of Duty Fans tolerat the loss on PlayStation?

Considering Call of Duty rose to power as PlayStation‘s marquee online FPS, many in the community feel it belongs on Sony‘s systems:

• Backlash likely: Given the large PlayStation player base, frustration and boycott risks could be severe if support ends. Activision Blizzard will need to tread carefully.

• Multiplatform > Exclusive: Many fans strongly prefer playing Call of Duty without platform-exclusive barriers – fragmentation could fuel resentment.

• Mobile becomes more important: iOS and Android may become CoD‘s true cross-platform home in a fragmented console world.

Losing access to communities they‘ve been part of for over a decade will undoubtedly leave many players feeling spurned. Publishers ignore that at their peril.

Key Factors that Will Influence Exclusivity

Looking ahead, here are some of the key factors that I think will determine whether Call of Duty remains cross-platform or goes exclusive:

• Terms of existing Sony contracts: Activision reportedly has multiyear PS5/PS4 commitments still pending. These will need to be honored before any change.

• Game Pass subscriber growth: If Microsoft needs exclusives to keep Game Pass growing, CoD could go exclusive when Sony deals expire.

• PlayStation‘s response: If Sony invests heavily in new exclusives of its own, Microsoft may double down on exclusivity too.

• Regulatory conditions: Governments could block the deal or impose requirements around keeping CoD multiplatform.

• Fan sentiment: Backlash risks might compel Microsoft to keep Call of Duty accessible across competing platforms.

Weighing all of these key factors will take time – until then, the future remains uncertain.

The Crucial Next Few Years

While short term access to Call of Duty on PlayStation seems secure based on existing deals, the next few years will determine what comes after.

Microsoft could make Call of Duty exclusive to Xbox platforms once those Sony deals expire to better compete against PlayStation‘s fantastic exclusives portfolio.

But doing so risks alienating the massive Call of Duty player base built over the last 15+ years of PlayStation domination. Especially with Sony poised to invest heavily in new PlayStation exclusive content and IP, the scales could tip either way.

Ultimately, whatever decision is made will have ripple effects across console, PC, and mobile gaming going forward. Stay tuned, my friend – this saga is just getting started!

Let me know if you have any other thoughts or questions on this epic deal. I‘m happy to chat more!