How Many Upsets Are There in March Madness First Round?

Hey there basketball fan! If you‘re like me, you look forward to the NCAA March Madness tournament every year. I‘m Lillie, a home improvement expert and basketball enthusiast. In this article, let‘s take a detailed look at one of the most exciting parts of March Madness—the upsets that happen in the wild first round.

Defining an "Upset" in March Madness

Before we dive in, what exactly constitutes an "upset" in March Madness? Essentially, it‘s when an underdog team defies expectations and beats a favored opponent. But there‘s no definitive way to classify upsets. It‘s subjective based on each matchup. Still, the thrill comes from unlikely teams rising to the occasion!

Historical First Round Upset Percentages

Analyzing tournament data reveals some fascinating historical trends about first round upsets:

• Since 1985 when the tourney expanded to 64 teams, lower seeds have scored 34.8% upsets over higher seeds in first round games.

• In 18 of the last 24 tournaments, lower seeded teams have had a winning record in the first round.

• Over the last 6 tournaments from 2014-2019, underdogs beat favorites in 77 of 1,074 total games—that‘s around 7.2% upsets!

So it‘s clear that surprises in the opening round are common every March. But the unique single elimination format makes predicting upsets a challenge. Let‘s explore why…

Why the First Round Sees More Madness

Upsets can happen any given night in March, but certain factors make the first round ripe for surprises:

• Matchup familiarity – Later round games feature teams that likely faced earlier. First round pits unfamiliar foes against each other.

• Nothing to lose – Lower seeds have zero pressure as heavy underdogs, allowing them to play loose.

• Overlooking opponents – Higher seeds sometimes take first matchups for granted.

• Youth – Younger teams can be inconsistent and fall victim to jitters.

According to sports analysts, these elements combine to make the first round a minefield ready to bust brackets! Now let‘s look at some of the biggest #1 seed upsets…

Notable First Round Upsets of #1 Seeds

Despite being heavy favorites, #1 seeds have been shockingly bounced from the first round on several occasions:

• 2018: #1 Virginia lost to #16 UMBC in the first ever 16-over-1 upset
• 2012: President Obama‘s #1 Kentucky suffered an unthinkable loss to #8 Iowa State
• 2009: Powerhouse #1 North Carolina fell to #9 Washington
• 2001: #1 Michigan State was ousted by double-digit underdog #11 Temple

These historic upsets prove that absolutely no team is immune to the adrenaline-filled unpredictability of March Madness! Next let‘s examine the greatest upset of all time…

The Shocking #16 Over #1 Upset

In my opinion, the win by #16 seed UMBC over Virginia in 2018 goes down as the craziest upset in tournament history:

• UMBC was the first ever #16 to beat a #1 seed
• They won easily by 20 points (74-54) despite massive 25-point underdogs
• Broke brackets all over America to the tune of $1.7 billion in losses

This monumental David vs Goliath upset showed that on any given night, even the extreme longshots have a puncher‘s chance at everlasting glory!

Other Notable NCAA Tournament Firsts by Underdogs

UMBC‘s unthinkable win over Virginia wasn‘t the only first of its kind. Here are other barrier-breaking upsets:

• First #15 Sweet 16 team: Richmond in 1991
• First #14 Sweet 16 team: Chattanooga in 1997
• First #13 Sweet 16 team: Valparaiso in 1998
• First #15 over #2 win: Coppin State over South Carolina in 1997

These results prove the old adage—that‘s why you play the games! Now let‘s examine if favorites can ever be completely safe…

Have All #1 Seeds Ever Reached the Final Four?

Seeing all four #1 seeds make the Final Four would be sheer March Madness . But despite the possibility, it‘s only happened 6 times since 1985:

• 1991, 1993, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2008

The fact is that pre-tournament seeds get tossed out the window once the games begin. At least one giant invariably gets picked off before the Final Four. Though favorites dominate, nothing is ever certain!

Can the Elite 8 Feature Zero #1 Seeds?

Speaking of unpredictability, it‘s uncommon but not impossible for the Elite 8 to feature zero #1 seeds.

In recent years, the 2020 and 2011 tournaments saw Final Four fields with no #1 teams:

2020 Elite 8 Seeds

So while #1s tend to survive and advance, once in a while they all fall in the first weekend! Proof again that we should expect the unexpected.

When Was the Last #1 Seed First Round Upset?

The most recent year a #1 went down in Round 1 came in 2021:

• 2021: #1 Illinois was stunned by #8 Loyola Chicago, dashing their championship dreams

This just shows yet again why March Madness delivers sheer entertainment year after year. Not even top overall seeds are safe in the one-and-done pressure cooker!

Key Takeaways on First Round Madness

After taking a deep dive into the upsets, here are the big takeaways:

• Upsets are subjective, but generally involve underdogs beating favorites

• Around 35% of first round games since 1985 have been upsets

• Single elimination format makes predicting upsets extremely difficult

• First round has ripe conditions for surprises like unfamiliar opponents

• Even #1 seeds have been victims of shocking first round exits

I don‘t know about you, but I can‘t wait for this year‘s March Madness! Here‘s hoping for more legendary buzzer beaters and eye-popping upsets that make this the greatest sporting event on Earth. Thanks for reading and enjoy the Madness!