Is DeVante Parker a WR1 in Fantasy Football? A Comprehensive 2020 Analysis

If you‘re looking for a safe, high-floor WR2 target in your 2020 fantasy football drafts, DeVante Parker is your guy. The 6‘3" Miami Dolphins wide receiver finally enjoyed a breakout year in 2019, posting career-highs across the board. As Miami‘s undisputed top receiving option heading into 2020, Parker has a good chance to repeat his WR1-level production.

In this comprehensive guide, we‘ll analyze Parker‘s background, past production, and 2020 outlook to determine if he can maintain WR1 value. You‘ll find detailed statistics, expert projections, and matchup analysis to help optimize your fantasy draft strategy when targeting Parker.

Background on DeVante Parker‘s NFL Career

First, let‘s look at Parker‘s background and journey to fantasy relevance. The Dolphins drafted the athletic receiver 14th overall back in 2015 after he wowed at the Combine with a blistering 4.45 40-yard dash. He always flashed high upside, but injuries and shaky quarterback play limited Parker over his first four seasons.

Prior to last year, Parker had never reached 750 receiving yards or 5 touchdowns in a season. But in 2019, the stars aligned for a true breakout campaign.

DeVante Parker: Career Stats & Rankings

As you can see above, Parker saw career highs across the board in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns last season. He finished as the WR11 in standard formats after never finishing better than WR73 in his first four years.

So what changed in 2019? Let‘s take a closer look at the factors behind Parker‘s massive leap in production:

• Improved QB play: Ryan Fitzpatrick consistently looked Parker‘s way downfield, helping him set career bests in air yards (1,173) and yards per reception (16.7).

• Role expansion: Parker saw his snap share jump to 89% and his targets rise to a 24% share of Miami‘s passing game.

• Better health: He played 15 games for just the second time in his career. Previously, nagging injuries like hamstring strains had hindered Parker.

• Opportunity: Miami traded away Parker‘s biggest target competition in Jarvis Landry prior to 2018.

• Development: Parker improved his route running and contested catch ability, becoming one of the best 50-50 ball winners.

Everything finally clicked for the talented 6-year veteran in 2019. Parker showcased the abilities that made him a first round pick while benefitting from a larger role. He dominated opposing defenses on contested downfield catches.

Parker in 2019: Contested Catch Dominance

• Led NFL WRs in contested catches (31)
• Caught 61.7% of contested targets (NFL average 31.6%)
• Generated a 151.6 passer rating on contested throws

Thanks to Parker‘s breakout year, Miami rewarded their new WR1 with a four-year, $40 million dollar contract extension in December 2019. Clearly, the Dolphins are committed to featuring Parker heavily in their offense going forward. This bodes very well for his 2020 fantasy outlook.

DeVante Parker‘s Fantasy Football Outlook for 2020

Heading into 2020, Parker stands out as one of the safest WR2 options in fantasy drafts. He broke out in a major way last season and will remain locked in as Miami‘s primary pass catcher this year.

While the Dolphins did add some receiver depth by drafting Lynn Bowden Jr., none of the additions figure to significantly eat into Parker‘s target share. He saw an impressive 24% target share in 2019, ranking 13th among qualified WRs.

2020 Projections for DeVante Parker:

• PFF: 152 targets, 76 receptions, 1,081 yards, 7 TDs
• FantasyPros ECR: WR18
• Fantasy Football Calculator ADP: 60th overall, WR22

The projections paint Parker as a solid WR2, bordering on fringe WR1 territory in PPR formats. The experts at PFF forecast Parker to come close to matching his 2019 production, projecting over 150 targets again this season.

Parker‘s red zone upside and TD potential does take a minor hit with new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey preferring to spread the ball around close to the end zone. But Parker remains the favorite target on passing downs and downfield shots.

Let‘s take a look at how Parker stacks up to some other WRs in terms of projected 2020 production and ADP:

2020 Projected Production – WR Comps

As you can see, Parker‘s projected volume and production is on par with highly drafted fantasy WRs like Metcalf and Lockett. He offers similar upside and a much safer floor at a cheaper price.

Now let‘s take a look at Parker‘s 2020 strength of schedule and key matchups to determine any boom or bust weeks:

DeVante Parker 2020 Matchup Analysis

Parker benefits from facing many porous secondaries in 2020. His most favorable matchups come against the Jaguars, Jets and Raiders, who all ranked bottom-five in fantasy points allowed to WRs last season. Even tough matchups like the Chiefs and Rams are exploitable for Parker given his high target volume.

The only major concern around Parker heading into 2020 is the possibility of lingering injuries slowing him down. He does have a lengthy injury history, especially with hamstring strains. The shortened offseason and training camp could amplify that risk.

DeVante Parker Injury History

• Missed 7 games in 2017 with an ankle injury
• Limited to 11 games in 2018 due to a shoulder issue
• Suffered 3 hamstring strains between 2016 and 2018
• Underwent back surgery in 2019 but returned healthy

If Parker suffers another major injury, it would open the door for young receivers like Preston Williams or an expanded role for Mike Gesicki. Durability is likely Parker‘s biggest risk, but when healthy he‘s locked in as a high-volume WR2.

When to Draft DeVante Parker in 2020 Fantasy Football

Based on expert consensus ADP and rankings, DeVante Parker is commonly being drafted in the 5th-7th rounds as a WR2. His ADP stands at 60th overall and WR22 off the board.

In PPR formats, Parker becomes even more valuable thanks to his high target volume. Don‘t hesitate to grab him in the 4th or 5th round in PPR leagues.

If you favor a ‘Zero RB‘ approach, Parker makes for an ideal WR2 in rounds 4-6 who can anchor your starting lineup. Draft him over riskier options like Hollywood Brown, AJ Green or rookie receivers.

Here is a quick cheat sheet for when to draft Parker depending on league format and your draft strategy:

When to Draft DeVante Parker in 2020

Parker is unlikely to replicate his WR1 overall finish from last season. But a high-end WR2 outcome is well within range given his volume and talent. Don‘t let him fall past the 7th round in your drafts.

The Bottom Line on Parker‘s Fantasy Outlook

DeVante Parker finished 2019 as the overall WR11 after finally delivering on his exciting potential. He broke out in his fifth NFL season and now profiles as one of the safest WR2 options in fantasy football for 2020.

Here are the key takeaways on Parker‘s WR1 upside:

• Locked in as Miami‘s undisputed lead receiver after a breakout 2019 season
• High target floor and volume upside as Dolphin‘s top passing game weapon
• Has an elite contested catch and 50/50 ball skill set
• Favorable strength of schedule and exploitable individual matchups
• Extra value in full PPR formats due to high reception totals
• Durability and injuries are the biggest risk factors

Parker is arguably the safest WR2 bet in fantasy drafts this year. He will likely post a stat line somewhere around 75-90 receptions, 1,100-1,300 yards and 7-9 TDs.

While he may lack the blow-up potential of some riskier receivers, Parker provides a reliable weekly floor thanks to his high target volume in Miami. He‘s a rock-solid WR2 that smart fantasy owners should feel good about drafting in the 5th-7th rounds.