Is draw no bet the same as money line? A data analyst‘s guide

Hey there fellow tech and data geeks! Terry Williams here, back again to dive into another intriguing sports betting market. Today I want to provide a comprehensive breakdown on draw no bet betting, how it differs from the standard moneyline, and when to leverage it for value.

I know examining derivative betting markets like draw no bet versus the tried and true moneyline bet can be confusing. My goal is to give you an expansive look at draw no bet through data, analysis, examples and insights so you grasp precisely how it works and when it‘s advantageous.

Grab your calculator and let‘s get to it!

What is a draw no bet?

A draw no bet bet, sometimes shortened to DNB, occurs when the draw outcome is removed from a traditional 3-way moneyline soccer bet.

With a typical moneyline soccer bet, you can wager on Team A, Team B or the Draw. Draw no bet eliminates the draw, leaving just Team A or Team B as options.

If the match ends up drawn, your stake is given back to you rather than losing the bet. Think of it as a push or no action.

Here‘s a quick example to illustrate:

• Arsenal vs Chelsea
• Draw no bet odds:
  • Arsenal – +120
  • Chelsea – -140
• You bet $100 on Arsenal draw no bet
• If Arsenal wins, you profit $120 from your $100 bet
• If Chelsea wins, you lose your $100
• If it‘s a draw, your $100 is returned

See how the draw possibility is taken out? You can‘t bet on the draw, but you get your money back if it happens.

So what exactly is a moneyline bet then?

A moneyline bet is the most common form of sports betting where you simply pick outright winner of a game or match, without the use of a point spread.

You‘ll often see moneyline bets in lower scoring contests like:

• Soccer
• Baseball
• Hockey
• MMA

The moneyline odds are based on each team‘s probability to win. Whoever is deemed more likely to win will have negative odds, like -200. The underdog receives positive odds, like +180.

Here‘s an example moneyline:

• New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
• Moneyline odds:
  • Patriots – -150
  • Draw – +260
  • Bills – +130
• Bet $150 on the Patriots. If they win, you profit $100.
• If it‘s a draw, you profit $260 from a $100 bet.
• Bet $100 on the Bills. If they win, you profit $130.

With a moneyline, you can bet on the draw for a nice payout if it lands. Draw no bet removes this option.

Why would bookmakers offer draw no bet?

There are a few reasons sportsbooks provide draw no bet betting lines. The primary one is soccer/football matches end in a draw quite often!

Just look at these draw percentages from Europe‘s biggest leagues last season:

League	% Draws Per Season
English Premier League	26%
Spanish La Liga	29%
German Bundesliga	27%
Italian Serie A	30%

With draw rates typically around 25-30%, sportsbooks are exposed on moneyline bets when draws occur, especially on odds-on favorites. Draw no bet reduces their risk.

Draw no bet also lets bettors wager on teams without the draw danger. Betting draws directly doesn‘t offer great odds unless you parlay them.

Overall it‘s a mutually beneficial derivative market for books and bettors in sports where draws are common.

How do draw no bet and moneyline odds differ?

The main difference you‘ll notice is draw no bet provides shorter odds on both teams than the moneyline prices.

For favorites, draw no bet odds will be shorter than the moneyline, but longer than if you bet them to win-only.

For underdogs, draw no bet odds will be longer than the moneyline, but shorter than their win only price.

Let‘s look at an example Premier League match:

• Liverpool vs West Ham
• Moneyline odds:
  • Liverpool – -400
  • Draw – +500
  • West Ham – +900
• Draw no bet odds:
  • Liverpool – -275
  • West Ham – +600

Liverpool goes from -400 to -275 when the draw is removed. West Ham goes from +900 to +600 with no draw option.

The draw no bet simply compresses both sides closer to even money. Books reduce their risk while also giving you shorter odds in return.

How does this affect betting strategy and value spots?

When assessing the value differences between moneyline and draw no bet odds, here are some general guidelines to follow:

• On heavy favorites, always take the moneyline over draw no bet. The compression is too great.

• On close underdogs, draw no bet often provides value over the moneyline if you expect them to come close.

• Target draw no bet lines closer to even money for the best value. Avoid odds worse than -200.

• In low total matchups between poor attacking teams, draw no bet on the underdog offers an edge.

• Live betting draw no bet on trailing teams down just a goal or two can provide longer odds than pre-match.

The reduced risk on favorites and higher payouts on underdogs will vary the value on draw no bet depending on the specific match. Assess the moneyline prices versus draw no bet to spot discrepancies.

Advantages of draw no bet betting

Now that we‘ve covered exactly what draw no bet betting entails and how the odds work, let‘s examine some of the advantages it offers over standard moneyline betting:

• Hedge against draws – With draws occurring frequently across soccer leagues, draw no bet provides insurance against wasted draws.

• Longer underdog odds – Removing the draw compresses favorites‘ odds more than underdogs typically, leading to higher payouts.

• Lower risk on favorites – You must lay less to win the same amount on favorites with draw no bet compared to moneyline odds.

• Opportunity for arbitrage – In rare cases, draw no bet odds may deviate far enough from the moneyline to provide arbitrage.

• Live betting value – Draw no bet lines can offer value on trailing teams if the game is tight and draw looms.

Drawbacks and cons of draw no bet

Of course, draw no bet betting isn‘t without its downfalls. Here are a few of the drawbacks to consider:

• Lower odds on favorites – Big favorites see their odds become much shorter with the draw removed, lowering potential payouts.

• Can‘t bet the draw specifically – You lose the option to directly wager on a draw outcome occuring.

• Less profit if picking correct score – Choosing the correct score draws will earn less than moneyline draw bets.

• Fewer cash out opportunities – Cash out profits disappear on draws versus winning draw moneyline bets.

• Arbitrage harder to find – Books are careful to avoid pricing errors since draw no bet is a derivative market.

Comparing draw no bet to other soccer betting markets

Draw no bet, as we‘ve discussed, removes the draw from the 3-way moneyline. Let‘s quickly compare it to some other common derivative soccer betting markets:

• Double Chance – Gives two of three outcomes in one bet, like Team A or Draw. Draw no bet is exact outcome.
• Draws No Lay – Lose draw bets only if match ends 0-0. Draw no bet refunds all draws.
• Handicaps – Spread is added to adjust odds closer to even. Draw no bet just removes draw.
• Correct Score – Choosing exact score gives highest payout. Draw no bet simplifies to win only.

Each market accomplishes a similar goal of tweaking moneyline odds. Draw no bet specifically targets soccer‘s high draw rate compared to these other options.

Final thoughts and winning strategies

Alright fellow data heads, let‘s wrap this up with some final tips for betting draw no bet effectively:

• Look for odds discrepancies between the moneyline and draw no bet prices for value.

• Target tight contests between closely matched sides where a draw is likely.

• Betting underdogs draw no bet offers better value than taking them on the moneyline.

• Only bet big favorites draw no bet if you expect them to win handily, not a close game.

• In-game live betting on draw no bet provides value on teams down a goal but playing well and pushing.

• For parlays and accumulators, sometimes replacing moneylines with draw no bets boosts odds.

I hope this deep dive into draw no bet betting provides a helpful guide for our tech savvy data-loving audience! Please let me know if you have any other derivative betting markets you want me to break down in the future.

Now get out there and use this knowledge to make informed draw no bet wagers! We‘ve got the analytical edge so let‘s cash some tickets!