Is Shiny Smeargle Rare? Yes, It‘s One of the Rarest Shinies in Pokémon GO
Shiny Smeargle is considered very rare and valuable among Pokémon GO trainers. With estimated wild shiny odds of 1 in 500, and only 1 chance per day to encounter it, Shiny Smeargle is definitely one of the rarest shinies currently available in the game.
Just How Rare is Shiny Smeargle?
Let‘s look at some key statistics on Shiny Smeargle‘s rarity:
- Base Shiny Rate: Approximately 1 in 500
- Daily Encounter Limit: 1 (sometimes increased during events)
- Estimated Shiny Rate: 1 in 500 chance per daily encounter
- Encounter Chances During Events: Up to 5 per day
- Shiny Availability: Only during certain events
Considering these factors, scoring a shiny Smeargle is incredibly difficult:
Outside of special events, you only get one chance per day at roughly 1 in 500 odds. That means checking daily since Smeargle‘s release only gives you a 0.2% chance of finding one by now.
During boosted events, the odds improve to around 1 in 100 per day, if you maximize your 5 allotted encounters. But these events are time-limited, usually lasting 1-2 weeks at most.
All told, Shiny Smeargle has been available for a very limited time since its debut in 2019. And when available, the odds are stacked heavily against you.
No wonder tournament players offered up to 5 shiny legendaries for one on trading forums!
Estimated Shiny Smeargle Rarity Compared to Other Pokémon GO Shinies
To further demonstrate Shiny Smeargle‘s rarity, let‘s compare it to some other top shiny Pokémon in GO:
| Pokémon | Base Shiny Rate | Encounter Frequency | Estimated Rarity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smeargle | 1 in 500 | 1 per day | Extremely Rare |
| Legendary Raid Bosses | 1 in 20 | Frequent raids | Moderate |
| Wild Spawns | 1 in 500 | Unlimited | Common |
| Shadow Pokémon | 1 in 64 | Frequent grunts | Uncommon |
| Egg Hatches | 1 in 50 | Limited hatches | Uncommon |
As you can see, virtually every other shiny in the game has much better odds and encounter rates than Smeargle.
No matter how you cut it, Shiny Smeargle is far rarer than just about any other Pokémon GO shiny.
The only possible contender would be shiny Mythical Pokémon like Mew or Celebi, which are exclusive to paid events. But they at least have boosted shiny rates during those events.
What Factors Make Shiny Smeargle So Rare?
Now that we‘ve established Shiny Smeargle‘s extreme rarity, let‘s examine why it‘s so hard to get:
- Strict Encounter Limit: Can only photobomb once per day, no exceptions.
- Full Odds Shiny Rate: Estimated 1 in 500 is standard non-boosted shiny rate.
- Timed Availability: Only obtainable during certain limited-time events.
- Cumulative Luck Needed: You must get lucky enough for the photobomb and for it to be shiny.
- No Way to Influence Spawns: Smeargle appears randomly, unable to be forced.
- Single Interaction per Encounter: If you miss it, tough luck!
No other Pokémon in the game has quite so many factors limiting your access to it and reducing your shiny odds.
These barriers are what make Shiny Smeargle a true trophy shiny for hardcore collectors.
Estimating the True Rarity of Shiny Smeargle
Based on the known encounter rates and shiny odds, we can estimate the actual rarity of catching a Shiny Smeargle for the average player:
- Daily outside of events: 1 in 500
- During 2-week event: Up to 1 in 100
- Across 4 year availability: Less than 1 in 300
- For rural players: As low as 1 in 1000
- For hardcore players: Potentially 1 in 150
Obviously, these numbers involve lots of variables and luck. But it gives a sense of just how elusive that coveted green paint-splosion Smeargle truly is!
The hardcore data science-minded may disagree with these estimates slightly. But the conclusions are clear – Shiny Smeargle is certainly among the top 5 rarest shinies presently in Pokémon GO.
Final Analysis – Why Go For Shiny Smeargle?
After breaking down the sheer rarity of this Pokémon, you may ask – is Shiny Smeargle worth the effort for collectors?
In my opinion, the answer is absolutely yes! Beyond the rarity itself, here are some reasons why:
- Exclusive Bragging Rights: Very few players have one even now.
- Unique Model: Smeargle‘s shiny form is completely distinct.
- Trade Value: Easily worth multiple shiny legendaries for rarity.
- One-of-a-Kind: Unlikely we‘ll see boosted odds ever.
- Photobomb Nostalgia: Smeargle is iconic and beloved.
For diehard shiny hunters, no risk is too great for that sweet dopamine rush of seeing a 1 in 500 shiny.
But even for casual players, the chance of adding this exclusive shiny to your collection makes it worth striving for against the odds.
If you manage to snap a shiny photobomb, cherish that special green painter! Just be ready for everyone‘s envy at your Pokémon GO trophy.