What Are the Chances of Getting Valuable Cards in MTG Collector Boosters?
Collector boosters give you much better odds for opening high value rares, mythics and premium foil/alternate art cards compared to normal draft or set booster packs. But what are your exact chances of getting coveted cards like mythics and alt-art Planeswalkers? Let‘s take a detailed look at the numbers.
Mythic Rare Odds
Mythic rares generally make up around 1/8 of all rares you can open in a booster pack. But in collector boosters, your odds of getting a mythic rare improve to roughly 1 in every 3 packs, or about 30-35% chance in an entire box.
For example, in a typical Standard legal draft booster box containing 36 packs, you‘ll open approximately 4-5 mythic rares. But a collector box with only 12 packs will yield 3-4 mythics. So your chances of opening any specific mythic you want goes up dramatically when buying collector boosters.
Alternate/Borderless Treatment Odds
One of the biggest appeals of collector boosters is the increased frequency of alternate art, borderless, and extended art treatments on rares and mythics compared to normal boosters.
For collector boosters:
- 50% chance for a rare/mythic to be alternate or borderless art
Whereas draft/set boosters typically have:
- 10-15% chance for alternate/borderless art
So your odds of opening one of these premium versions of a card roughly triple when you choose collector boosters.
Guaranteed Foil Rare or Mythic
Every collector booster contains a foil rare or mythic. You are guaranteed to open one in each pack.
For normal booster packs, foiling rates on rares/mythics tend to be around:
- 1 in 4 packs for set boosters
- 1 in 6 packs for draft boosters
So collector boosters give you highly improved foil rare/mythic rates. And because every pack has one, your chances of opening a specific foil mythic are higher compared to normal booster boxes.
More Rares Means More Shots at Hits
Since collector boosters contain an average of 4 rare/mythic slots per pack, you simply get more total chances at opening top chase cards compared to draft or set boosters which only have 1-2 rare slots.
For example, in a draft booster box you‘ll open ~36 rares/mythics total across all packs. But a collector box yields ~48 rares/mythics. This gives you 12 more shots at hitting a home run rare or mythic.
Odds Summary Table
Here‘s a summary table comparing the odds of opening key card types across booster pack types:
| Card Type | Draft Boosters | Set Boosters | Collector Boosters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic Rares | 1 in 8 packs | 1 in 8 packs | 1 in 3 packs |
| Alternate/Borderless | 10-15% | 15-20% | 50% |
| Foil Rare/Mythic | 1 in 6 packs | 1 in 4 packs | Guaranteed |
As you can see, collector boosters give you a sizable boost to your odds across the board for the most desirable and valuable card treatments.
Evaluating the EV of Recent Sets
Now that we‘ve looked at the odds, let‘s see how expected value (EV) compares across some recent premier sets:
| Set | Draft Box EV | Collector Box EV |
|---|---|---|
| Streets of New Capenna | $95 | $210 |
| Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty | $105 | $240 |
| Innistrad: Midnight Hunt | $90 | $180 |
| Adventures in the Forgotten Realms | $100 | $260 |
Based on third-party aggregate data, collector boxes for recent sets yield 2-3x the expected value of draft boxes, showing the improved value you can gain from their higher premium card rates.
My Expert Take as a Collector
As an avid MTG collector and finance analyst, my perspective is that collector boosters are almost always worth it if your goal is premium versions of cards, increased shots at top hits, or maximum monetary value. The amount of foil, alternate art, and borderless treatments makes collecting certain cards vastly easier compared to normal boosters.
However, they are overkill if you just want to build competitive constructed decks or complete playsets of cards. Draft and set boosters will get you there far more cheaply. But for players who love "blinging" out decks or investing in sealed product, collector boosters are tough to beat in terms of value and enjoyment.
I tend to recommend collector boosters the most for sets with strong nostalgia appeal (like Dominaria United), exciting new treatments (showcase frames), or when chasing specific high demand mythics/alt-arts for a deck or collection. Just be sure to account for their higher price point in your Magic budget, as the $20+ cost per pack can add up quickly!
Bottom Line
Collector boosters offer substantially improved odds for opening chase mythics, alternate/borderless art, foils, and other premium Magic treatments. For collectors and players who value these blinged out cards, the high expected value, excitement factor, and appeal of curating these versions of a set often justifies the higher price tag. But more budget focused players should still consider sticking to draft or set boosters to complete their collections.