# What Does \+1\.5 Mean in Football Betting? A Beginner‘s Guide to Betting On This Tricky Spread - Canonical: https://33rdsquare.com/what-does-1-5-mean-in-football-betting-a-beginners-guide-to-betting-on-this-tricky-spread/ - Published: 2023-11-04 - Author: Nelson Ayers - Categories: [Basic knowledge & Meaning](https://33rdsquare.com/category/games/meaning/) --- If you‘re new to betting football against the spread, you‘ve probably come across point spreads like +1.5 and wondered – what does the +1.5 actually mean? And how does it impact your chances of winning compared to other common spreads? I‘m going to walk you through everything you need to know about this unique spread. I‘ll explain why +1.5 spreads exist, when they offer value, and strategies to approach these tricky lines. By the end, you‘ll feel like a pro wagering on tight NFL matchups featuring the intriguing +1.5 spread. Let‘s get started! ## Point Spreads 101 – How They Work and Why They Exist Before digging into the +1.5 spread specifically, it‘s helpful to understand point spreads broadly. A point spread is the projected margin of victory set by oddsmakers for a football or basketball game. The favorite has to win by more than the spread. The underdog can lose by less than the spread or win outright. For example: - Patriots -7 - Jets +7 If you bet the Pats -7, they‘d need to win by 8+ points to cover. If you bet the Jets +7, you win if they lose by 6 or fewer points or win the game outright. ### Why point spreads exist Point spreads are designed to make both teams equally appealing bets from a gambling perspective. They even out lopsided matchups between heavy favorites and big underdogs. Without a spread, everyone would simply bet on the perceived better team which has a higher probability of winning. By handicapping superior teams and giving points to inferior teams, spreads aim to attract equal money on both sides. Sportsbooks want to take in roughly the same amount of bets on each team. This way, they maximize profits by earning the built-in house edge on every bet. ### How oddsmakers set point spreads Oddsmakers at sportsbooks analyze many factors to set competitive point spreads: - Team strengths – offense, defense, special teams - Key player matchups – star RBs, pass rushers, CBs - Injuries and roster changes - Team and player trends - Public perception and betting splits - Weather and home field advantage They want to handicap superior teams just enough to entice gamblers to take the perceived weaker team. As betting action comes in, they‘ll adjust spreads to try keeping things balanced. ## Spotlight on the Mysterious +1.5 Spread Now that you understand why spreads exist, let‘s focus on the meaning and implications of the +1.5 spread specifically. ### What does +1.5 mean? When you see a +1.5 point spread, it means: - The team with +1.5 is the underdog - They are getting 1.5 points added to their final score - They can lose by 1 point or win the game outright and still cover the spread Essentially, they have more leeway to not win the game but still cover the +1.5 spread. ### Scenarios with a +1.5 spread Here are some scenarios with how a +1.5 spread would work: - Raiders +1.5 vs Chiefs - Raiders lose 23-21 ✅ Raiders bettors win - Raiders lose 24-21 ❌ Raiders bettors lose - Raiders win 28-27 ✅ Raiders bettors win A +1.5 underdog can lose by exactly 1 point and still cover. But if they lose by 2+, they do not cover. Of course if the dog pulls the outright upset, that‘s also a win for +1.5 bettors. ### Why +1.5 spreads exist You‘re probably wondering – why do oddsmakers go with +1.5 specifically versus whole numbers like +2 or +3? There are two common situations where you‘ll see a +1.5 spread: **1. When teams are closely matched** Oddsmakers use +1.5 when they view two teams as nearly even in ability and expect a tight game. Adding 1.5 points evens out the action while acknowledging one team is still perceived as better, even if just slightly. **2. To avoid influential key numbers** Numbers like 3, 7, and 10 are considered key numbers in football betting. Oddsmakers sometimes use surrounding numbers like +1.5 and +2.5 to set lines off the key numbers. This can sway bettors‘ perceptions if they place significance on the key numbers. Ok, now that you know _why_ we have +1.5 spreads, let‘s look at how to actually bet on them profitably. ## How Often Favorites and Underdogs Cover +1.5 Spreads To bet +1.5 effectively, it‘s useful to know how often favorites and underdogs cover different spreads historically. **According to sports betting data, here are the cover rates for NFL favorites and underdogs by spread:** ![Point Spread Cover Rates](https://i.imgur.com/pngKg0Z.png) As you can see, +1.5 dogs cover over 47% of the time. Much higher than spreads over +3. This illustrates why getting +1.5 is valuable compared to larger underdog spreads. The cover margin is wider. Now let‘s look at how to capitalize on tight +1.5 spreads. ## 5 Betting Strategies for Wagering +1.5 Spreads Putting this cover rate data into practice, here are 5 proven betting strategies I recommend when wagering on NFL games with a +1.5 spread: ### 1. Bet home underdogs ATS Home dogs only getting +1.5 are undervalued. They cover over 50% of the time in this spot. The home crowd and familiar surroundings help dogs keep games tight as single digit dogs. For example, if you see: - Chiefs -1.5 - Broncos +1.5 Jump on the home dog Broncos +1.5. ### 2. Target divisional underdogs Divisional foes are extremely familiar with each other. They know tendancies and match up better than non-conference foes. These inherent advantages lead to closer games between rivals. So target dogs you know well when catching +1.5. Using the same matchup: - Chiefs -1.5 - _Broncos +1.5_ The divisional history favors taking the short dog Broncos. ### 3. Buy low on struggling favorites The betting public tends to overreact and drive lines up too high on public teams with recent struggles. Buying low by grabbing inflated +1.5 dogs has proven profitable. For example, back in 2019: - The Eagles started 1-2 straight up and against the spread. - They closed as +3 home dogs to the Packers in Week 4. - 76% of bets came in on the Packers -3, driving the line up from its opener. - The Eagles ended up dominating 34-27 and covered the inflated spread. When lines feel inflated by overreactions, bite on the dog. ### 4. Review historical ATS records Dig into teams‘ cover rates over recent seasons to spot smart +1.5 bets. Good examples heading into 2022: - **Patriots:** 6-1 ATS as dogs since 2020 - **49ers:** 2-9 ATS as home favorites since 2021 Leverage these cover trends by taking dogs like the Pats and fading unreliable faves like the Niners when they land as -1.5 chalk. ### 5. Monitor line movements Pay attention to which way the smart money is betting. Sharp bettors often grab +1.5 dogs early, driving lines down from say -3 to -1.5. Jump on dogs seeing this steam. By tracking line movements, you can follow the smart money. ## Weighing Pros and Cons of +1.5 Spreads Before pulling the trigger on a +1.5 spread, weigh the key pros and cons: **Pros of taking +1.5 dogs:** - Wider cover margin than bigger spreads - Indicates sportsbooks see nearly even matchup - Chance to fade inflated public favorite - Opportunity to buy low on home dogs **Cons of taking +1.5 dogs:** - Lower payouts than bigger underdogs - Key numbers like +3 avoided - Public tends to favor chalk - Still have to win or lose by exactly 1 point As with any wager, consider the big picture with matchups, injuries, betting splits, and team trends. But these pros and cons are helpful factors in your +1.5 decision-making process. ## Comparing +1.5 Spreads to Other Bet Types How do +1.5 spreads compare to other popular football bet types in terms of profit potential? Let‘s break it down: **+1.5 Spreads vs Moneylines** Typical moneyline odds in a pickem spread game: - Favorite: -115 - Underdog: -105 To compare profitability, we‘ll bet $100 on each at -110 typical spread odds: - +1.5 Spread: $90.91 profit on $100 bet - Moneyline: $87 profit on $100 bet Slight edge to the spread. But moneyline offers chance at bigger return if dog wins outright. **+1.5 Spreads vs Totals** An over/under around 40 points in the NFL averages a -110 payout on both sides. - +1.5 Spread: $90.91 profit on $100 bet - Total Over/Under: $90.91 profit on $100 bet Totals offer uniqueness from sides but +1.5 spreads have proven just as profitable historically in NFL. ## Final Thoughts on Football‘s Trickiest Spread That covers everything you need to know to become a smart +1.5 spread bettor! To recap the key points: **Top 5 Takeaways on Betting +1.5 Spreads** 1. It offers underdogs a wider cover margin than bigger spreads. 2. Home dogs and divisional dogs hold added value catching +1.5. 3. Monitor line movements to follow smart money grabbing dogs. 4. Dig into team trends and stats to spot mismatches. 5. Weigh pros and cons and line value before placing +1.5 wagers. While the narrow 1 point cover cushion presents a challenge, +1.5 underdogs offer strong upset potential in the right spots. Hopefully this guide gave you a better sense of how to make profitable bets against football‘s trickiest spread. Best of luck hitting on those tight +1.5 margins! --- Source: [What Does \+1\.5 Mean in Football Betting? A Beginner‘s Guide to Betting On This Tricky Spread](https://33rdsquare.com/what-does-1-5-mean-in-football-betting-a-beginners-guide-to-betting-on-this-tricky-spread/)