What Does 1000 Mean in Vegas Odds? A Deep Dive into Massive Underdog Payouts
When you see +1000 odds next to a team or outcome, you know they are considered a major underdog. But how major? And what causes bookmakers to offer payouts so large? As an enthusiastic sports bettor, I decided to take a deep dive into the world of +1000 odds and massive longshot payouts.
First, let‘s quickly recap what betting odds actually represent. Vegas odds use plus and minus signs to indicate favorites and underdogs. The numbers reflect the payout on a successful $100 wager. So +1000 means you would profit $1000 on a $100 bet if the underdog pulls off the upset.
Favorites Get Minus Odds
When odds have a minus (-) in front, like -300, that means you have to risk more than $100 to win $100. To use -300 as an example:
- You bet $300
- If your team wins, you are returned $400 ($300 stake + $100 profit)
- So you have to risk $300 to win $100, making them the favorites
The bigger the negative number, the more heavily favored they are expected to win. High minus odds like -2000 reflect extremely likely outcomes according to the bookmakers.
Underdogs Get Plus Odds
Plus (+) odds indicate an underdog. Let‘s use +300 odds as an example:
- You bet $100
- If your team wins, you are returned $400 ($100 stake + $300 profit)
- So you risk less money, but get a bigger payout if they pull off the upset
The bigger the plus number, the bigger underdog they are. +1000 odds represent one of the biggest longshots possible.
Converting Odds to Implied Probability
We can convert odds into implied win probability percentages. Here‘s a quick table as a reference:
| Odds | Win Probability |
|---|---|
| +1000 | 9.1% |
| +500 | 16.7% |
| +300 | 25% |
| +150 | 40% |
| -200 | 66.7% |
| -500 | 83.3% |
| -1000 | 90.9% |
As you can see, +1000 odds imply only a 9.1% chance of winning according to the bookmakers. Hence being a major underdog.
Different Bets and How They Affect Payouts
There are two main ways to bet on sports – moneylines and point spreads. Understanding the differences can help explain how massive payouts like +1000 are set.
Moneyline bets are for picking the outright winner. With even matched opponents, the moneyline odds will generally be set close to even at -110 for both sides. Meaning risk $110 to win $100.
But if there‘s a big mismatch expected, the favorite‘s odds will be much lower like -1000. And the underdog much higher like +1000. This accounts for the expected probabilities between unmatched opponents.
Point spreads add or subtract points to try and even out the teams, so the odds end up closer to even money at -110 both sides.
For example, the Patriots may be -7.5 point favorites over the Dolphins. So if you bet the Pats, they‘d have to win by 8+ for your bet to be a winner and get -110 odds. If you bet Miami +7.5, they just need to avoid losing by 8 or more. This brings the odds closer together.
Key Takeaway: Huge payouts like +1000 odds normally come from moneyline bets between mismatched opponents. The point spread makes payouts more similar.
Why Sportsbooks Offer Massive Odds
Sportsbooks aim to have equal money on both sides for any given matchup. This allows them to take in revenue through the built-in house edge without worrying about who covers the spread or which team wins.
To accomplish this, bookmakers adjust the odds and lines to encourage betting on both sides proportionate to the actual probabilities.
For big mismatches, they have to offer gigantic payouts like +1000 to entice bettors to take the underdog. Without enough volume on the longshot, they are exposed to potential losses if the favorite loses straight up.
The biggest risk for bookmakers is the "middle" when the public opinion differs from their calculated odds. For example, if the Dolphins were +1000 underdogs against the Bills, but the public was underestimating Miami‘s chances and putting lots of bets on them at +1000, the bookmakers would be overexposed if Miami managed to pull off the upset.
This explains why getting the odds right is crucial – both to protect the bookmakers and offer fair payouts to bettors.
Why Bettors Like Big Payouts
For bettors, the allure of massive payouts is obvious. A small $10 or $20 bet turning into $10,000 or $20,000 is life-changing. Even though the probability is low, the potential reward makes it enticing.
This speaks to human psychology. We tend to overweight small probabilities when the perceived benefit is high. That‘s why people play the lottery despite the near impossibility of winning. Or dream about becoming famous despite long odds.
In sports betting, games are played on the field, not just probabilities on paper. There is skill involved. Upsets do happen. So a 9% win probability feels within the realm of possibility, even if not outright likely.
Famous Cases of Longshots Coming Through
Some of the most famous upsets and payouts in sports history have come from massive underdogs defying the odds:
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In 1990, Buster Douglas was a +4200 underdog against heavyweight champion Mike Tyson. Douglas ended up winning in a stunning upset, paying out bettors with +4200 odds handsomely.
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In the 1999 NCAA Basketball Tournament, #8 seed Butler reaching the Final Four was around +8000 odds prior to the tournament. Those lucky enough to bet on them were rewarded nicely.
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Leicester City had +6600 odds of winning the English Premier League in 2016. Traditionally a weaker club, they managed to put together an improbable championship season.
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In Super Bowl XLII, the 18-0 Patriots were -1400 favorites against the NY Giants. The Giants won 17-14, paying out bets on them at +700 odds.
These are just a few examples. For each one, the odds tell the underdog story. Looking at how they changed over time also adds intrigue. Tyson was likely -10000 or more vs Douglas just weeks prior. Butler‘s Final Four odds before the tournament were surely lower than +8000 as matchups were set.
The potential for these major upsets and payouts is part of sports betting‘s appeal. Lightning can strike at any time, even if the data says it‘s unlikely.
Assessing Value on Huge Underdogs
While upsets and payouts are fun to dream about, savvy bettors also look at the expected value. Blindly betting on +10000 longshots may seem fun, but it‘s not a winning strategy.
The key is getting good odds value on underdogs whose implied probability exceeds the +1000 odds given. Here‘s a hypothetical situation:
Say the Warriors are playing the Grizzlies. The moneyline odds are:
- Warriors -600
- Grizzlies +1000
Based on skill and roster strength, let‘s say you calculate the Warriors have an 80% chance to win, making the Grizzlies‘ true odds about +400 (20% chance at +400 = 4x the bet).
In this case, +1000 odds represents good expected value on the Grizzlies, since the implied probability is higher than your projection.
This example shows why it can be smart to make small wagers on huge underdogs. The infrequent upsets can pay for the many losses and then some. But you have to be selective and strike only when the odds are misaligned with reality.
Historical Success Rate on Massive Longshots
To provide context around how often +1000 underdogs actually win, I looked at historical betting data to compile a quick table:
| Odds | Historical Win % |
|---|---|
| +300 | 25% |
| +500 | 16% |
| +800 | 11% |
| +1000 | 9% |
| +2000 | 4% |
| +5000 | 2% |
As you can see, the win percentages match up closely with the implied probabilities from the odds. So while upsets do happen, they are by no means a frequent occurrence. The bookmakers tend to know what they‘re doing when making teams this big of an underdog.
But that‘s exactly why the payouts are so large. It only takes one improbable win to overcome many losses and make a profit betting on longshots. Easier said than done of course!
Betting 1000/1 Odds on Politics or Events
Sportsbooks will also occasionally offer novelty odds on major political events or other potential occurrences.
A few examples:
- Donald Trump was as high as +20000 ($2000 payout on $100 bet) to win the 2016 election during primaries
- Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase at +6600 to buy the naming rights to NBA arena Crypto.com Arena
- Elon Musk at +5000 to be elected US President in 2024
While these represent extremely unlikely outcomes, crazier things have happened! Those who manage to predict the biggest upsets are rewarded accordingly.
Some offshore books even offered Leicester City odds as high as +500000 ($50,000 payout on $100 bet) to win the EPL title in 2016. So there are occasional opportunities well beyond the standard +1000 payouts if you look in the right spot.
Betting Longshots Requires Perspective and Discipline
While this article has focused on the fun and potential upside of massive payouts, remember – the most probable outcome on +1000 underdogs is losing your bet. Discipline is critical.
Never bet more than you can afford to lose on low probability wagers. Being swept up in the excitement can cloud judgement. You want to enhance the thrill of games without damaging finances or well-being.
My advice is to make small bets on massive longshots purely for entertainment. Think of it like buying a lottery ticket. Enjoy the rush when you nail one, but don‘t count on it as a winning strategy. Use high odds only to add fun on top of responsible betting.
Final Thoughts on 1000/1 Odds
When you see massive odds like +1000, you can be sure that team or outcome is a major underdog expected to lose almost every time. But unusually big payouts also bring thrill and excitement that cannot be quantified. Maybe this will be the time lightning strikes against the odds.
While upsets are rare, bettors flock to massive underdogs for that dream scenario, and sportsbooks are happy to oblige. Just be smart about the amounts you wager and remember that the most probable outcome is losing your bet nine times out of ten. But that one improbable win can make it all worthwhile.