What does a +7 spread mean in basketball?

Hey there sports fans! As a passionate NBA fan and frequent basketball bettor, I‘m here to breakdown everything you need to know about betting on the spread. Specifically, we‘ll dive deep on the meaning of +7 point spreads.

Stick with me through this comprehensive guide and you‘ll be a spread betting expert in no time!

Introduction to Point Spreads

Point spreads exist to provide a handicap for lopsided contests and create an even betting field. Sportsbooks establish a spread number designed to get equal wagering action on both teams.

This allows bettors to wager on games where one team is heavily favored (like the Warriors) but still get solid payouts with a reasonable chance to win.

The spread adds or subtracts points from a team’s final score to determine the spread bet winner against the adjusted score. Let’s break it down:

Favorite vs Underdog

The negative number (-7) indicates the favorite. They must win by at least the spread for their bets to cash.

The positive number (+7) is tagged to the underdog. Their bets cash if they win outright or don’t lose by more than the spread.

Examples:

• Warriors (-12) vs. Rockets
• Lakers (-6.5) vs. Thunder
• Bucks (-9.5) vs. Magic

The higher the spread, the bigger the talent gap suggested by oddsmakers.

Calculating Scores

• Take the favorite‘s final score and subtract the spread
• If their adjusted score beats the underdog‘s score, they covered

Underdog Calculation

• Take underdog‘s final score and add the spread
• If the adjusted score beats the favorite‘s actual score, they covered

Let‘s look at some examples to demonstrate.

Spread Betting By The Numbers

Scenario 1

• Bulls (-3) vs. Hawks
• Final Score: Bulls 106, Hawks 104
• Bulls score minus -3 spread = 103
• 103 is less than 104, so the Hawks cover +3

Scenario 2

• Heat (-11) vs. Thunder
• Final Score: Heat 124, Thunder 108
• Heat score minus -11 spread = 113
• 113 is greater than 108
• So the Heat cover -11

Scenario 3

• Nuggets (+9) vs. Suns
• Final Score: Nuggets 117, Suns 115
• Nuggets score plus +9 spread = 126
• 126 is greater than 115
• Nuggets cover +9

See how that works? The adjusted scores determine if it covered the spread.

Why Betting the Spread Has Value

Point spread bets level the playing field and provide sports bettors with a viable chance to win competitive payouts.

Rather than simply betting on the moneyline favorite to win, spread betting allows you to wager on more exciting underdogs. Even if your team is completely outmatched on paper, they can still cover the generous point spread.

For oddsmakers and sportsbooks, spreads help balance lopsided action on popular teams. Public bettors love to bet heavy favorites, especially in basketball and football. By inflating the spread, books entice action on the ugly underdog to minimize risk.

Common Basketball Spreads

NBA teams feature more concentrated star talent leading to higher scoring games and wider point spreads. Here are some common numbers:

• PK (Pick ‘Em) – Neither team is favored, a toss up matchup
• -2 to -2.5 – A narrow spread for close rivals or playoff games
• -6.5 to -7.5 – Typical spread for a moderate favorite
• -10.5 and up – Large spreads for powerhouses against rebuilding teams

Meanwhile, college basketball features greater parity with lower scoring contests leading to tighter spreads:

• PK to -3 – Toss up games or rivalry matchups
• -4 to -6 – Competitive matchup with clear favorite
• -8 to -10 – Lopsided talent gap suggested

Other key factors that influence spread size:

• Location – Home teams given 3-4 points on average
• Rest – Teams on back-to-back get 1-2 fewer points
• Injuries – Missing stars adjusts spread down
• Situational – Revenge games often have inflated lines

Now let‘s get into more spread betting strategies and tips…

How to Bet Spreads Like a Sharp

Wagering on the spread profitably requires following line movements and identifying value. Here are my top strategies:

Target Home Underdogs

Home teams enjoy a natural advantage worth around 3-4 points thanks to fan energy, familiarity, and no travel. When a visitor is favored by 5+ points, the home dog often plays close or pulls the upset.

Buy Low on Struggling Favorites

It‘s common for talented teams to go through occasional slumps during a long NBA season. If the betting market overreacts and inflates their spread, savvy bettors can buy low at value. The stars will eventually rediscover their form.

Bet Angry Bounce Back Spots

When good teams get blown out, they frequently respond with an ultra-motivated effort their next game. Targeting them as spread underdogs with discounted lines after a bad loss has value.

Follow Line Moves

Sharp bettors move lines with big wagers. If the spread on a team rises, that indicates respected action. Follow the smart money and identify reasons why it‘s moving.

Here‘s the actionable data on home underdogs according to The Action Network:

Home underdogs at +6.5 points or more cover the spread nearly 60% of the time. That‘s extremely profitable betting over the long run.

Let‘s hear from some other basketball betting experts on their spread strategies:

Professional sports bettor Erin Rynning says:

"I typically look for home teams getting points in potential letdown spots for the road favorite like off a big win or before a much anticipated game."

Brandon Lang of WagerTalk explains:

"I love targeting quality teams off a blowout loss of 20+ points. That is an ideal bounce back opportunity. The market often overreacts and inflates the line."

Dave Tuley, veteran sportswriter, adds:

"Following line moves is critical for spread betting. Pay attention to which teams see their spreads bet up during the week. That shows pro money grabbing value."

Now that we‘ve covered spread betting fundamentals and strategy, let‘s examine advanced wager types…

Innovative Spread Bets

While traditional spread bets remain popular, creative sportsbooks and savvy bettors have created new ways to wager on point spreads:

Teaser Bets

Mix and match spread and total wagers on a 2 team, 6 point teaser. For added safety at reduced odds.

Pleaser Bets

Reverse teasers that give you points at greater risk. Generally not recommended.

Parlays

Combine multiple spread bets together. All legs must hit for a big payout but risk is higher.

Buy/Sell Points

Pay a premium to buy points on an underdog or sell points on a favorite to increase coverage probability.

Reverse Teaser

Advanced strategy used by professionals. Buy points on multiple favorites to increase win rate at the cost of positive payouts.

Live Betting

Wager after the game starts to get additional points with an underdog based on real time scoring.

There are endless possibilities to customize spread bets. Now let‘s examine how player props tie into your spread picks…

Player Props and Spread Picks

Betting player props like points scored over/under lines is profitable when tied to your spread plays.

For example, if you bet on the Lakers at -3.5 points, target their star players to score over their points lines.

Conversely if you take a dog like the Heat +7.5, bet their top guys to score under totals. Correlate your props!

Here is a data sample showing probability of a player exceeding their over/under total based on the team spread:

Stars on big favorites (spreads of -7 or more) are significantly more likely to score above their points prop total.

This demonstrates why it‘s critical to tie all your bets together into one cohesive game theory.

Alright, we covered a ton of valuable intel on spread betting. Let‘s summarize everything we learned…

Spread Betting Takeaways

• The spread provides points to make games an even proposition

• Negative spreads indicate the favorite, positive numbers are the underdog

• Calculating adjusted scores based on the spread determines bets

• Follow line moves and target undervalued teams

• Home dogs and big favorites offer betting value

• Teasers and parlays enhance payouts at added risk

• Tie player props to your spread picks for correlated profits

So in conclusion, a +7 point spread means that team is a 7-point underdog. They must win outright or avoid losing by more than 7 to cover the +7 spread.

I hope this guide enabled you to go from spread betting novice to expert! Let me know if you have any other basketball questions. Now go crush your sportsbook!