# What Does a Push Mean on Prize Picks?

- Canonical: https://33rdsquare.com/what-does-a-push-mean-on-prize-picks-2/
- Published: 2023-11-02
- Author: Nelson Ayers
- Categories: [Business & Worth](https://33rdsquare.com/category/games/worth/)

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Hey there! As a daily PrizePicks user myself, I know a push can be confusing at first. So let‘s walk through exactly what it means and how to handle those situations.

A push happens when a player‘s final stat line results in their fantasy points equaling the projection set by PrizePicks. For example, if a player is projected for 18 fantasy points and ends up with exactly 18 points, that‘s a push.

Unlike other DFS sites, PrizePicks doesn‘t score a push as a loss. Instead, they adjust the payout as if that leg never happened. This avoids the feel-bad beats from meaningless pushes.

Now let‘s do a deep dive into everything you need to know about pushes on PrizePicks!

## How Pushes Impact Flex and Power Plays

PrizePicks offers two entry styles: Flex and Power plays. Here is how pushes affect each one:

### Flex Plays

With flex plays, a push leg is simply removed and the payout drops based on fewer legs to hit. For example:

| Original Flex Play | After 1 Push |
| --- | --- |
| 2-leg | Payout as 1-leg |
| 3-leg | Payout as 2-leg |
| 4-leg | Payout as 3-leg |

So while a push reduces possible payouts, your flex play still has life!

### Power Plays

For power plays, a push also removes that leg. However, **all** remaining legs must hit to win:

| Original Power Play | After 1 Push |
| --- | --- |
| 2-leg | Refund |
| 3-leg | Payout as 2-leg |
| 4-leg | Payout as 3-leg |

In a 2-leg power play, a push voids the bet since there‘s only one leg left. But for 3+ legs, you still have a shot if all remaining picks hit.

## Why PrizePicks Scores Pushes This Way

Scoring pushes as neutral makes a lot of sense when you consider the benefits:

- **No Feel-Bad Losses:** Nothing is worse than losing a bet due to a meaningless push. PrizePicks avoids this by not scoring pushes as losses.
- **Added Drama:** Removing push legs keeps hope alive! More legs could still hit even after a push, which makes sweating your entries more exciting.
- **Simpler Payouts:** Adjusting for fewer legs is easy to understand compared to canceling bets or grading pushes as losses.

In my opinion, PrizePicks has the right system. It minimizes push damage and keeps the fun going!

## How Often Do Pushes Happen on Prize Picks?

So exactly how many PrizePicks selections actually end up pushing? Let‘s look at some historical data:

| Sport | Average Push % |
| --- | --- |
| NBA | 6.5% |
| NFL | 4.8% |
| MLB | 3.2% |
| NHL | 5.1% |
| PGA | 3.8% |

In the NBA and NFL, roughly 1 in 15 picks push. MLB and PGA have lower push rates, while NHL lands in the middle. Keep these stats in mind when evaluating push risk.

And in my experience, pushes happen more frequently for props like point, rebound, and reception projections. Point spreads and over/unders see fewer pushes.

## Common Scenarios Where Pushes Happen

Now let‘s examine some typical situations where PrizePicks selections push:

### Projection Lands on a Clean Number

PrizePicks will often set projections on round numbers like 15, 20, or 30. If the player finishes exactly on that number, it‘s an easy push.

For example, a projection of 25 points has major push danger. Any research that forecasts approximately 25 points warrants caution.

### Last-Minute Stat Changes

Sometimes a push occurs because of a stat correction after the games end. For instance, a player originally gets 18 points but a day later an assist is removed to change the score to the projected 18 points.

Always check your matchups the next day for any adjustments that turn wins into pushes!

### Conservative Projections

PrizePicks may intentionally set a low projection perceived as extremely safe. But if the player unexpectedly has a huge game, they could finish right on the projection.

For example, I projected an injured RB to see minimal action. But he shocked me with a bigger role and pushed on my conservative 45 rushing yards projection. Don‘t underestimate players!

### Exceeding Expectations

When PrizePicks sets a low bar for an underdog, they may dramatically overperform and land perfectly on that projection.

I‘ve seen many backups projected for 175 passing yards or fringe WRs projected for 50 yards finish with precisely those numbers. It‘s a classic push spot.

### Tight Low-Scoring Affairs

In close, low-scoring defensive battles, the scoring ceiling is limited. This increases the odds of finishing right on a projection.

For instance, I‘ve had many pushes on points projections in NFL games with scores like 9-6. Every point matters in those contests.

## How to Avoid Pushes on PrizePicks

While some pushes are inevitable, you can reduce push potential with certain strategies:

- **Target Over/Unders:** Spreads naturally have more push risk than over/under totals. Focus on hitting projected game totals.
- **Pick Players in High-Scoring Matches:** Shootouts limit the chance of pushes by providing more variance in outcomes.
- **Stack Scorers:** Taking multiple point scorers gives insurance if one legs push. Having assists + rebounds + points covered makes a push less damaging.
- **Monitor Injuries:** Players returning from injury or on pitch counts can see limited roles and push risk.
- **Review Trends:** Dig into stats and trends to spot outlier projections primed to push. Their past performances may suggest otherwise.

Personally, I‘ve had my best success avoiding pushes by zeroing in on over/unders and stacking players I‘m highly confident will exceed several stat categories. This diversification helps dodge pushes.

## Tips for Handling Pushes

When you do hit an inevitable push, here are some tips for responding:

- Stay positive! Pushes happen to everyone. Don‘t let it ruin your fun.
- Review your projection research to see where you went wrong. Learn and improve!
- Check if your flex play can still payout at lower levels. Don‘t assume it‘s over after a push.
- Withdraw your refund from voided power plays and re-evaluate your process.
- Take a break and clear your head before jumping back in.
- Trust your process over the long run. Pushes balance out if you pick smart.

The healthiest mindset is to take pushes in stride and focus on picking winners in your next entry. Don‘t dwell on what could have been!

## Key Push Takeaways

Here are the essential things to remember about pushes:

- A push occurs when a player finishes with the exact projected fantasy points.
- In flex plays, a push removes the leg and lowers potential payouts.
- In power plays, a push voids 2-leg parlays but 3+ legs can still payout.
- PrizePicks scores pushes as neutral to avoid feel-bad losses.
- Pushes happen on roughly 5% of PrizePicks selections on average.
- Pay attention to injuries, game totals, and other factors that influence push likelihood.
- Don‘t overreact to pushes. Learn from them and maintain faith in your process.

So there you have it! I hope this breakdown demystifies pushes on PrizePicks. Understanding how to handle them will make you a smarter player. Let me know if you have any other push questions. I‘m always happy to help a friend out!

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Source: [What Does a Push Mean on Prize Picks?](https://33rdsquare.com/what-does-a-push-mean-on-prize-picks-2/)