Demystifying Outright Betting: A Beginner‘s Guide
Hey friend! Have you heard about outright betting before? If not, you‘re in for a treat!
As a long-time betting aficionado, outright wagers are one of my specialties. I love the challenge of forecasting the big picture rather than just a single game. The patience required, the art of finding value, and the thrill of cashing a long-term prediction make outright betting so rewarding.
In this guide, I‘ll walk you through everything you need to know to get started and hopefully land some outright winner picks of your own!
What Are Outright Bets Exactly?
An outright bet, also known as a future or ante-post bet, is a wager placed on the overall winner of a tournament, league, or other sporting event. Rather than betting on the outcome of a single game, you‘re predicting the eventual champion of the entire competition.
Outright betting has been around for over a century, first becoming popular in horse racing during the late 1800s. As more organized sports leagues emerged, bookmakers soon allowed bettors to wager on overall league winners as well.
The origins of modern tournament outright betting can be traced back to events like the FA Cup in soccer. With the rise of major competitions like Wimbledon and the Masters in tennis and golf, outright betting continued gaining prominence.
Now every major league, tournament, and championship offers a variety of outright winner markets. The future bets allow fans to put their prognostication skills to the test!
How Do Outright Betting Odds Work?
The odds in an outright betting market will usually be much longer than a single game line, since correctly predicting an overall winner involves more difficulty.
Let‘s look at an example:
The Lakers may be a -200 favorite over the Celtics in an upcoming NBA regular season game. For that one matchup, the oddsmakers expect LA to win.
However, the Lakers‘ odds to win the overall NBA Championship might be +400, while the Celtics are +1000 longshots. So even though LA is favored head-to-head, their championship odds are longer since more variables are at play over a full season.
This means outright betting offers you a chance at much higher payouts compared to match betting! Picking an underdog to win it all can result in a big windfall if you get it right.
Now let‘s see how this works with calculating potential payouts:
- Bet $100 on the Lakers at +400 odds to win the NBA title
- The Lakers win the championship
- You win $400 on your $100 bet, for a total payout of $500
Compare that to the single game moneyline odds:
- Bet $100 on the Lakers at -200 odds to beat the Celtics
- The Lakers win
- You win $50 on your $100 bet, for a total payout of $150
As you can see, the championship outright bet paid over 3X more on the same $100 wager!
Popular Outright Betting Markets
While any major event with an overall winner offers outright betting, some of the most popular include:
Tournament Winners
- Tennis – Wimbledon, Australian Open, French Open, US Open
- Golf – The Masters, PGA Championship, Open Championship
- Soccer – World Cup, Champions League, Europa League
- Basketball – NCAA March Madness, NBA Finals
- Baseball – World Series
- Motorsports – Formula 1 Championship, NASCAR Cup Series
League Winners
- English Premier League
- NFL Super Bowl
- NBA Championship
- NHL Stanley Cup
Horse Racing Events
- Kentucky Derby
- Melbourne Cup
- Epsom Derby
- Breeder‘s Cup Classic
Other Markets
- Entertainment – Grammys, Oscars, Eurovision
- Politics – US Presidential Election
- Competitive Eating Contests!
Now that you know the major outright betting events, let‘s get into some winning strategies…
5 Pro Betting Tips for Outright Wagers
Succeeding with outright bets requires patience, research, and calculated risks. Here are my top 5 tips:
1. Bet Early
Placing bets far in advance of finals gives you an edge. Odds are longer before competitions begin, allowing you to get better value. A 200/1 longshot could be 10/1 near finals!
2. Identify Value
Don‘t just back favorites. Search for underdogs and dark horses with a legitimate shot whose odds are higher than their chances to win.
3. Bet Without
You can find better odds by betting on a tournament "without" a leading favorite. Removes a top contender from the odds equation.
4. Know the Factors
Study team form, injury news, past results, coaching changes, and other details before betting.
5. Take Calculated Risks
Have the courage to bet on unlikely but possible winners. Just don‘t go overboard on any one team.
Now for the fun part – analyzing data to discover betting value!
Statistics Show Longshots Can Offer Value
Let‘s examine recent outright betting results to identify trends and potential opportunities:
NHL Stanley Cup Winners Past 10 Seasons
| Season | Winning Team | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Colorado Avalanche | +900 |
| 2020-21 | Tampa Bay Lightning | +650 |
| 2019-20 | Tampa Bay Lightning | +1600 |
| 2018-19 | St. Louis Blues | +2500 |
| 2017-18 | Washington Capitals | +1400 |
| 2016-17 | Pittsburgh Penguins | +900 |
| 2015-16 | Pittsburgh Penguins | +900 |
| 2014-15 | Chicago Blackhawks | +1000 |
| 2013-14 | Los Angeles Kings | +1600 |
| 2012-13 | Chicago Blackhawks | +800 |
The average preseason odds of the past 10 Stanley Cup winners is +1120. This shows that identifying longshots with odds exceeding 1000/1 can offer tremendous value. Recent winners like St. Louis at +2500 and Tampa Bay at +1600 were teams to target at big prices.
Let‘s look at another market…
English Premier League Winners Past 10 Seasons
| Season | Winning Team | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Manchester City | -275 |
| 2020-21 | Manchester City | -110 |
| 2019-20 | Liverpool | +175 |
| 2018-19 | Manchester City | -250 |
| 2017-18 | Manchester City | +333 |
| 2016-17 | Chelsea | +2500 |
| 2015-16 | Leicester City | +15000 |
| 2014-15 | Chelsea | +600 |
| 2013-14 | Manchester City | +700 |
| 2012-13 | Manchester United | -110 |
Here the average preseason odds are +2687 – boosted by Leicester City‘s incredible +15000 championship. This shows outright betting value also exists even in leagues with favorites like Man City and Man United.
So in your Premier League betting, taking some longshot teams at 1000/1 or better odds gives you a chance at an enormously profitable payout.
Hope this gives you an idea of using statistics to gain an edge! Now let‘s hear from a fellow expert bettor on his outright strategy…
Veteran Betting Expert Lenny Rovelli Shares His Secrets
I had the chance to chat with my buddy Lenny Rovelli, a sports betting pro with 30+ years of experience. When it comes to outright wagers, Lenny has proven himself an undisputed champ.
Check out Lenny‘s best outright betting tips:
"To profit long-term, remain patient and only bet outright markets you have an edge in. Don‘t fall for favorites with poor value odds. Most bettors make that mistake. Wait for opportunities on underdogs where the odds are inflated well beyond their actual chances."
"Outright betting rewards research and emotional discipline. Study team trends but don‘t overreact to results from only the last few games. Take a big picture view of a team‘s form, ability, and motivation."
"While it can be fun to bet novelty outright markets like competitive eating or political elections, stick to sports you know well. Avoid outright bets that are pure gambles rather than based on skill and knowledge."
Thanks for the wisdom Lenny! His advice has served me very well over the years.
Now let‘s dive into the mental side of outright betting…
Psychology and Emotions Matter Too!
Casual bettors often struggle with outright wagers because of the patience and discipline required. When you bet on championships or season-long results, there will be ups and downs. Your selection might have a blazing start then hit a cold streak.
The key is avoiding the urge to react emotionally and make foolish bets after a loss or two. Stick to the long-term rationale behind your original bet.
Outrights also take discipline to avoid "cashing out" too early when your team goes up big. Some of my biggest mistakes have come from bailing on winning futures bets, just to watch my original prediction still hit.
So don‘t obsess over every little change in odds or rankings. Take a rational big picture view on your outright picks.
Final Thoughts
Thanks for letting me share my almost ridiculous outright betting obsession! I hope this intro guide provides a great starting point for researching these exciting markets.
Outright wagers bring such a thrill over long periods of time. The challenge of forecasting a whole tournament or season, the value of big underdogs, and the satisfaction of ultimately being proven right.
Just remember patience, discipline, and calculated betting are key. Don‘t chase favorites or bet emotionally. Stick to the plan and let the results come over the full competition.
Want to chat more aboutstrategies? Just let me know! I could talk all day about betting futures.
Good luck and enjoy those big payouts when you nail an outright winner!