Demystifying Parlays and Round Robins: The Ultimate Bettor‘s Guide

Hey friend! Parlays and round robins are two of the most popular – yet often misunderstood – sports bets out there. I want to lift the veil on these bet types to help you wager on them profitably.

As a data analyst and betting expert, I‘ll walk you through everything you need to know about parlays and round robins in this comprehensive guide. Buckle up, because we‘re going deep on strategy, math, history, and plenty of sports nerdery. Let‘s dive in!

Parlays 101

Simply put, a parlay combines multiple bets into one "package" where all wagers must win for the parlay to cash.

You could bet on the moneyline for a 3-game parlay:

• Chiefs to beat the Chargers
• Eagles to beat the Cowboys
• Bills to beat the Patriots

To collect that parlay, you‘d need KC, Philly, and Buffalo all to win outright. Going 2-1 or 1-2 results in a losing parlay ticket.

This is different than individual single bets where each wager stands alone. With parlays, one loss kills the WHOLE bet.

But here‘s the hook – linking these singles together into a parlay juices up the potential payout.

Using moneyline odds, let‘s look at hypothetical payouts on these three games:

• Chiefs (-200) $100 bet pays $150
• Eagles (-150) $100 bet pays $167
• Bills (-120) $100 bet pays $183

Bet $100 on each, you‘d earn $500 in profits if they all hit.

Parlay them together, that $100 might pay $800, $900, even over $1000 depending on the odds!

That‘s because the payouts compound and multiply together. We‘ll dig into the math shortly.

While harder to hit, the lure of parlay jackpots keeps recreational bettors coming back. Who doesn‘t love the idea of turning a small stake into a small fortune?

But you must be judicious with parlays as the combined risk also climbs. Sportsbooks LOVE parlays because most lose. We‘ll cover strategies to beat the odds shortly.

First, let‘s explore…

How Round Robin Bets Work

Round robins provide a creative twist on traditional parlays. The goal is improving your chances to win something while still chasing a nice payout.

Rather than one big parlay, a round robin automatically generates ALL possible smaller parlays from your list of picks.

For example, select a 3-team round robin on:

• Dallas Cowboys
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Buffalo Bills

You‘ll now have 3 separate 2-team parlays:

• Cowboys + Chiefs
• Cowboys + Bills
• Chiefs + Bills

Go 2-1 or better and one of your mini-parlays hits!

This gives you more margin for error compared to a standard 3-team parlay needing perfection.

As you add more picks, the number of parlays increases exponentially.

A 4-team round robin yields 6 parlays covering every 2-team and 3-team combo:

• Team A + Team B
• Team A + Team C
• Team A + Team D
• Team B + Team C
• Team B + Team D
• Team C + Team D

Now you have 6 shots at a smaller parlay hitting. The tradeoff is the payouts are smaller than on one huge parlay wager.

Let‘s compare pros and cons…

Round Robin vs Regular Parlay

Round Robin Pros

• Mitigates risk – Don‘t need to go perfect
• Wins partial payouts with 2+ hits
• Parlay jackpots still in play
• Provides built-in hedge

Regular Parlay Pros

• Bigger payout ceiling if you nail every leg
• Straightforward betting slip
• Lottery ticket appeal
• Maximum risk, maximum reward

Round robins provide a bit of risk management. But if you‘re feeling lucky, take a shot at hitting the full parlay!

Either method can be profitable with the proper approach. Now let‘s explore the many ways to parlay.

Different Types of Parlay Bets

While we‘ve discussed moneyline bets, you can combine ANY bet type into a parlay:

Moneyline Parlays

The most straightforward, picking winners without the point spread.

Spread Parlays

Point spread bets requiring teams to cover margins.

Totals Parlays

Combine multiple over/under bets on points scored.

Prop Parlays

Player props like passing yards, rushing TDs, etc.

Teaser Parlays

Adjust spreads for lower odds but better margin for error.

Same Game Parlays

Multiple bets all on the same game. Fun for Monday Night Football!

Mixed Parlays

Combine spread, moneyline, totals, props into one parlay.

Get creative mixing and matching your favorite bet types into parlays. Spreads and totals provide built-in cushion while moneylines remove the points. Props ties wagers together across games. Teasers reduce risk on the spread.

Same game parlays up the entertainment on a big matchup you‘re watching. With so many options, there‘s untapped potential in unique parlay creation!

Now for the tips and tricks to help your parlays cash more often…

7 Parlay Betting Strategy Tips

Crafting winning parlays is an art and science. Here are my top strategic tips:

1. Keep Parlays Short

Resist those 10+ team "lotto tickets." The odds get astronomical. Even hitting 8 out of 10 results in a loss. Stick to parlays between 2 to 4 legs max. This hits the sweet spot of still paying nicely while remaining realistic.

2. Focus on Favorites

Underdogs jack up the risk. Keeping all favorites or very short underdogs in your parlays improves the probability across every leg. I target favorites up to about -200 odds or less for each leg.

3. Find Key Numbers on Spreads

In football and basketball, the spreads at 3 and 7 points gain significance. Many games land right on those marks. If taking spreads, look for those key numbers.

4. Bet Selectively

Don‘t force parlays on every single game. Be selective and patient for spots where you have a strong bet you love on every leg. Quality over quantity pays off in the long run.

5. Correlate Your Bets

Tie wagers together that have related outcomes. Same game parlays combine bets on the same matchup. Player prop correlations target one player. This builds in natural hedges between your legs.

6. Use Teaser Parlays

Teasers let you buy points on the spread to gain a cushion of error by moving key numbers like 3, 7, or 10. You pay for this in lower odds but it‘s worth considering.

7. Hedge with Round Robins

As mentioned earlier, round robins provide built-in hedging. You sacrifice a bit of top-end payout in exchange for hitting smaller parlays more consistently.

Now let‘s get into the math and money…

Parlay Math and Calculating Payouts

At first glance, parlay math can seem daunting. But a few principles make it manageable:

1) Calculate Using Moneyline Odds

Convert all spread and total odds into moneyline equivalents. This simplifies the math into consistent numbers.

For example, -110 spread and total odds convert to -105 moneyline.

2) Multiply All Odds

Take each leg‘s moneyline odds and multiply them together.

A 3-leg parlay at -120, -130, -140 odds would be:

1.83 x 1.77 x 1.71 = 5.54

3) Add Back Your Stake

Divide the multiplied odds by 100, then add 1 to return your original wager amount.

(5.54 / 100) + 1 = 6.54

So on a $100 bet, this parlay pays $654 (we‘ll get to vig next).

4) Calculate Using the Bet Amount

You can skip the dividing and just use the raw multiplied odds times bet size.

So on a $100 bet, the payout is 100 x 5.54 = $554.

Add back the $100 bet for $654 total return.

5) Remember the Vig!

Sportsbooks take a cut known as "vig" or juice. This chews into your potential profits.

You‘ll likely see odds of -120 or -110 rather than true -100 odds. Budget vig into your expectations.

I suggest using a parlay calculator so you can accurately estimate payouts. Brush up on converting between American, decimal and fractional odds too.

Let‘s now dive into the best approaches for parlay profitability.

Most Profitable Parlay Tips and Strategies

While winning ultra longshot parlays requires luck, you can boost overall profits with the right approach:

1. Bet Short Parlays

As we discussed already, limiting parlays to 2 or 3 legs is ideal. You sacrifice upside but gain WAY higher win probability. Hitting more often offsets reducing the big score chances.

2. Stick to Moneylines

Removing the points takes away the spread margin of error that can doom a parlay on a backdoor cover. Moneylines enhance consistency.

3. Focus on One League

Become an expert in that sport‘s nuances, data, and team/player styles. This allows you to find inefficiencies against public perception and oddsmakers.

4. Teasers Over Big Parlays

Though lower upside than a 5+ leg parlay, teasers with adjusted spreads or totals provide room for error on each leg.

5. Correlated Legs

Tying wagers together raises correlations. Same game parlays, player props, or team total pairs do this naturally.

6. Parlay Leg You Want More Exposure To

If you love a certain pick but want more action, parlay it with safer bets as a creative way to increase your risk/reward.

7. Use Round Robin Hedging

As covered earlier, round robins give you multiple chances at shorter parlays hitting. This helps mitigate the parlay risk.

The key is either A) Hitting a lot of smaller parlays consistently, or B) Hitting a few sporadic long parlays at precisely the right times.

Let‘s look at some bettors who‘ve pulled off the parlay lottery…

Biggest and Most Famous Parlay Wins

Some monumental parlays have made history:

$75 Million World Series Parlay (2022)

Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale bet a multi-million dollar 2-leg parlay on the Astros to win the AL and World Series. His store promotions paid off with a $75 million payout, the largest U.S. sports betting payday ever!

$27 Parlay Turns to $1.4 Million (2018)

An NJ man left $27 in his online sportsbook account, which he parlayed on a 16-leg MLB parlay across division winners at +66000 odds. Talk about betting the farm!

162-Leg Parlay Wins $276K (2021)

A BetMGM customer in Vegas hit an insane 162-leg NFL parlay across multiple weeks. At +154619 odds, they staked just $25 for a $276,981 payday!

63-Year Old Woman Wins $154K NBA Parlay (2021)

A beginner bettor in the Bronx NY frequented her local sportsbook daily. She hit a 16-leg NBA parlay that turned $5 into $154,938!

These stories illustrate that with a dash of luck, anyone can hit it big. But repeat profits require savvy and discipline.

Let‘s conclude with…

Final Thoughts and Takeaways

Parlays and round robins give you a shot at exponentially multiplying your bankroll. By combining smart strategy with proper money management, they can boost your profits and betting enjoyment.

Here are a few key tips to remember:

• Keep parlay lengths reasonable (2-4 legs ideal)

• Focus on short underdogs and favorites up to -200 odds

• Round robins provide built-in hedging

• Correlate bets that have related outcomes

• Take advantage of key numbers like spreads at 3 and 7

• Learn to calculate payouts yourself or use a parlay calculator

• Don‘t sacrifice proper bankroll management despite upside allure

While parlays are hard to master, they are winnable bets with the proper approach. I hope this guide provides you an edge with your parlay betting. Let me know if you have any other questions!