Hey there fellow basketball fan! I’m Terry and today I want to provide the definitive guide to help you understand the plus/minus stat. I know it can seem confusing at first, but my hope is to give you a comprehensive overview so you can appreciate the value it brings. Trust me, once you grasp the basics, you‘ll see how plus/minus can reveal insights about players that traditional stats alone may miss.
What Does Plus/Minus Actually Measure?
Simply put, plus/minus tracks how many more (or fewer) points a team scores versus allows when a certain player is on the court.
Let‘s say during LeBron James‘ minutes, the Lakers score 110 points and give up just 100 points. His plus/minus would be +10, because his team outscored their opponent by 10 with him playing. Make sense so far?
Now, if LeBron sits and the Lakers get outscored 90-100, LeBron‘s +/- wouldn‘t be affected. The stat strictly measures the net point differential when that specific player is active in the game.
Over the course of a season, you sum up all these on-court differentials for each player to calculate their total plus/minus. A big positive number means they consistently lifted the team. A negative total indicates they may have hurt more than helped.
Why Plus/Minus Is an Impactful Stat
You may be thinking, "Well, points and assists already show scoring impact. What does plus/minus add?"
Here‘s the key – it captures all the ways a player contributes, even beyond putting the ball in the hoop.
Let‘s say you have Tyson, a lockdown defender who doesn‘t take many shots. His steals, deflections, and smothering pressure fluster opponents into missing shots and committing turnovers.
Tyson probably won‘t stack up big points or assists, but his plus/minus will be excellent because his defensive presence gives his team a major edge.
Plus/minus also accounts for hockey assists, solid screens, effort plays, leadership, and everything else that helps a team succeed. So it provides a more complete picture of a player‘s total on-court value.
Typical Plus/Minus Values to Know
As a benchmark, most players have a plus/minus between -10 and +10 in a given game. Over an entire season against varied competition, the league leaders are generally in the +7 to +10 range.
Meanwhile, the lowest impact players who hurt their team‘s performance can have totals around -5 or worse.
Just to give you an idea, here are some notable career plus/minus totals:
- Tim Duncan – +9,810
- LeBron James – +7,622
- Chris Paul – +5,448
- Steph Curry – +4,852
- James Harden – +3,593
Based on this, you can see the elite, Hall of Fame-caliber players pile up the highest totals from their sustained excellence.
Now let‘s examine the top plus/minus performers from the 2021-22 regular season:
| Player | 2021-22 Plus/Minus |
|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | +743 |
| Chris Paul | +632 |
| Steph Curry | +554 |
| Giannis | +470 |
| Jimmy Butler | +468 |
The current campaign leaders align closely with our MVP candidates, demonstrating how plus/minus correlates with providing best-in-the-league impact.
Interpreting Good, Average and Poor Plus/Minus
There‘s no definitive threshold, but here are some general guidelines I use:
- +3.0 or greater – MVP-caliber season
- +2.0 to +3.0 – All-Star level impact
- +1.0 to +2.0 – Quality starter
- 0 to +1.0 – Average starter or decent role player
- -1.0 to 0 – Bench player giving mixed results
- -2.0 or below – Replacement-level performance
So for instance, if a young player has a rating of +2.1, it indicates they are already performing at an All-Star type level. Meanwhile, a veteran with a -1.5 plus/minus is likely a below-average contributor when on the court.
Of course, game-to-game fluctuations happen. But over a full season or career, the plus/minus totals give a good read of a player‘s true value.
Offensive and Defensive Plus/Minus Splits
Another cool insight is you can split plus/minus into OFF and DEF ratings. This helps indicate where a player‘s strengths originate.
For example, Ben Simmons has a career +5.9 DEF plus/minus showing his defensive prowess. But his -1.7 OFF plus/minus demonstrates his scoring limitations.
Meanwhile, elite offensive catalysts like Curry (+5.8 OFF) and Harden (+5.2 OFF) unsurprisingly derive most of their plus/minus boost from their scoring gravity and playmaking.
Analyzing the split can distinguish players who tilt the scoreboard from defensive stoppers who prevent the other team from scoring. Both are enormously valuable, and plus/minus captures them separately.
Factors That Influence Plus/Minus
Now, plus/minus doesn‘t exist in a vacuum. There are some key variables to keep in mind:
Teammates – Great players boost each other‘s ratings. LeBron and AD have higher +/- because they play together.
Opponents – Facing tougher teams lowers a player‘s plus/minus for those games.
Playing Time – Starter vs reserve minutes impacts totals. Bench players have less time to accumulate high differentials.
Game Situation – Blowout victories or defeats skew the numbers more extremely.
Luck – Random variation in shooting % or production can sway any given game.
So while plus/minus measures individual impact, it‘s always influenced by context. The best use is looking at trends over multiple seasons rather than reacting to small samples.
Adjusted Plus/Minus Dives Deeper
To account for teammates and opponents, stats like “adjusted plus/minus” were created.
This uses regression analysis to isolate a player‘s impact by controlling for the other 9 players on the floor each night. It‘s super complex, but the core idea is adjusted +/- aims to more precisely gauge a player‘s unique nightly influence on scoring margin.
Adjusted +/- often aligns closely with intuitive player assessments, especially over multiple years. And it limits radical single-season swings caused by roster changes. I‘d recommend checking out both raw on-court/off-court plus/minus along with adjusted +/- to get the complete picture.
How Teams Use Plus/Minus Stats
You better believe NBA franchises rely heavily on plus/minus, especially when making personnel decisions. They have massive databases tracking five-man lineup ratings to identify which groups excel together.
Coaches study plus/minus trends to optimize rotations and substitution patterns. If the data shows certain players perform far better together, smart coaches will maximize those productive pairings and groups.
Front offices lean on multi-year plus/minus when projecting a player‘s potential impact. It provides tangible proof if someone consistently makes their team greater than the sum of its parts. No surprise that nearly every trade and signing over the past decade has prioritized guys with elite plus/minus contributions.
Fascinating Plus/Minus Examples
Let‘s bring this all together with some interesting real-world illustrations:
Andre Iguodala, +210 (+5.9 per game) – Despite just 7 points per game, Iguodala led the Warriors in plus/minus because of his defense, playmaking, and gravity. His versatility to guard 1-4 positions while leveraging Steph/Klay‘s scoring is a perfect fit.
DeAndre Jordan, -180 (-5.9 per game) – Jordan’s rim protection used to produce positive ratings, but his plodding offensive limits led to heavy negative marks in his later years as the NBA shifted towards speed.
Luka Doncic, +633 (+9.8 per game) – The young superstar instantly lifted a lottery Dallas team to contention by completely controlling the offense and scaling up his output against top defenses in the playoffs.
Trae Young, -280 (-6.2 per game) – Trae scores a ton, but gives so much back on the defensive end that the Hawks have actually performed far better with him off the court for long stretches. His one-way style needs covering up.
Tyler Herro, +5.2 per Game – The young sixth man lacks all-around contributions but provides crucial shooting to anchor the Heat‘s dangerous second unit. His elite bench plus/minus quantifies that scoring value.
Hopefully these scenarios give you a better sense of how impactful plus/minus can be in assessing a player‘s tangible effect on winning basketball. It tells a story that standard averages alone don‘t reveal.
Closing Thoughts on Plus/Minus Stats
That wraps up my guide to demystify plus/minus! Let me know if you have any other questions. I tried to cover all the key aspects in depth.
The stat isn‘t perfect or an all-encompassing singular metric. But combined with other analytics, plus/minus provides crucial supplemental information on a player‘s complete contributions.
From superstars to role players, it identifies who makes teams better across the box score and beyond. Plus/minus sheds light on winning basketball impact in ways that typical points, assists and rebounds alone cannot.
I hope this breakdown gave you a helpful introduction to appreciate all the insights plus/minus reveals. Trust me, once you get in the habit of checking it, your ability to evaluate players will reach a whole new level. It just might make watching the games that much more rewarding!
