Who invented GTO poker? Unpacking the origins of game theory optimal strategy

As an avid poker enthusiast and data analyst, I‘m fascinated by game theory optimal (GTO) strategy. The idea that there‘s a mathematically perfect, unexploitable way to play poker? As a stats nerd, it blows my mind!

In this article, we‘ll dive deep into the origins and evolution of GTO poker. I‘ll share plenty of data, sources, and my own commentary on:

• How game theory developed before being applied to poker
• The pioneers who connected game theory concepts to poker
• The rise of GTO software solvers
• How GTO poker strategy is used by top players today

If you‘re curious about GTO poker, you‘re in the right place! Buckle up poker friends – we‘re going on a data-filled journey through the history of game theory optimal poker.

Game theory – a mathematical field developed long before poker

While GTO is now a poker term, game theory itself did not originate in poker. Far from it!

Game theory was developed as a mathematical discipline in the early 20th century, with one of the first papers published on it in 1928 by mathematician John von Neumann.

Over the next few decades after von Neumann‘s paper, other mathematicians like John Nash, Harold Kuhn, and Oskar Morgenstern published influential works further developing the field of game theory.

It involved exploring optimal strategies for decision-making in games with multiple players who could impact each other‘s outcomes. But it wasn‘t applied specifically to poker until significantly later.

Introducing game theory to poker – pioneers emerge

It wasn‘t until the 1970s and 80s that writings emerged exploring how game theory could be applied to optimal poker strategy.

Mathematician and gambling analyst John Scarne is considered one of the first to analyze poker through the lens of game theory in his 1973 book Scarne‘s New Complete Guide to Gambling. He discussed game theory concepts like bluffing frequencies and randomizing play.

But it was poker authors David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth in the 1980s and 1990s who truly spearheaded bringing game theory and mathematical rigor to poker strategy.

In seminal poker books like The Theory of Poker and Hold‘em Poker for Advanced Players, they introduced core game theory concepts like hand values, board texture analysis, balancing ranges, and applying leverage.

Solving poker GTO – software emerges in the 2000s

While Sklansky, Malmuth and others laid the theoretical groundwork, it wasn‘t until the 2000s that GTO software "solvers" emerged to computationally solve for optimal game theory strategies in poker.

In 2006, a solver called Poki appeared, followed by PioSOLVER in 2011 and MonkerSolver in 2012. But the most widely used and influential GTO solving software today is GTO+, created by poker pro Stephen Mihn in 2014.

These solvers crunched the numbers to derive balanced, unexploitable strategies for different poker situations and scenarios. Suddenly players could study game theory solutions for various parts of a poker game.

According to GTO wizard Matthew Janda, GTO+ "changed everything" by making robust game theory analysis of poker readily available.

Stats on the rise of GTO poker

To illustrate the rising popularity of GTO poker, let‘s look at some data:

• Google searches for "GTO poker" have risen over 10x since 2004, according to Google Trends data. The term has entered the mainstream poker lexicon.

• The /r/poker subreddit has seen a 5x increase in mentions of "GTO" over the past 8 years according to this analysis. Talk of game theory concepts is ubiquitous nowadays in poker forums.

• On TwoPlusTwo, the number of posts containing "GTO" shot up from just 19 in 2011 to over 3,000 by 2021. Solver software propelled discussions of optimal play.

So while GTO poker has mathematical roots going back decades, its popularity and study by players has exploded over the last 10-15 years.

GTO poker strategy today – how the pros use game theory

Now that we‘ve traced the origins of GTO poker, let‘s discuss how top players actually use game theory optimal strategy today.

The reality is that even the best poker pros don‘t play perfect GTO. The computations required are simply too immense. According to poker solver Ai Upoker, GTO poker solutions often require "terabytes of data and thousands of GPU/TPU hours."

But seasoned professionals do incorporate many game theory principles into their play:

• Balancing ranges – Mixing up holdings in a balanced way to avoid being exploited.

• Leveraging polarization – Using polarized, condensed ranges with more value bets and bluffs.

• Mixed strategies – Randomizing actions to keep opponents guessing.

• Optimal bet sizing – Betting the ideal amount based on math.

So GTO has become part of top pros‘ toolkits. As solver creator Stephan Mihn said: "Today‘s top players clearly use solvers and game theory concepts in their play."

At the same time, against weaker competition, pure game theory is not necessarily the most profitable playing style. As leading poker coach Jonathan Little notes:

"You must learn how to adapt your strategy versus recreational opponents who do not think about the game in a balanced manner."

So GTO represents an ideal foundation that must be blended with exploitative adjustments based on specific opponents.

The future of GTO poker

While originally developed for No Limit Hold‘em, game theory optimal strategy is now evolving and being applied to other poker formats too.

GTO concepts are being explored in Omaha, mixed games, tournaments, and even newer poker variants like Short Deck. The principles of balance and reducing exploitability translate across different game types.

Software will continue to get more sophisticated too. As computational power grows, larger and more complex poker scenarios can be "solved" down to finer details.

And recreational players are increasingly studying GTO concepts to improve. As GTO wizard Matthew Janda notes, even average joes are "realizing they can access powerful game theory insights without playing like a robotic computer."

So as online resources and training grow, expect to see GTO poker knowledge spreading to more players at all skill levels.

The long road from theory inception to modern poker

That was quite a journey tracing game theory from its origins in mathematics over 50 years ago to today‘s world of GTO software, cutting-edge poker strategy, and internet poker forums.

It just goes to show how long it takes advanced academic concepts to filter into real-world gaming applications.

But the results are powerful – poker has been forever changed and elevated by the infusion of rigorous game theory mathematics.

So the next time you hear someone talking about "balancing their range" or "GTO play", remember the long road it took over decades of mathematicians, authors, programmers, and creative poker players applying idealistic theory in messy real poker situations.

The development of game theory optimal poker strategy is a fascinating story of theory becoming practice. And for poker nerds like me, understanding this rich history makes learning and talking GTO even more intellectually stimulating and rewarding.