Who wins more favorites or underdogs? A deep dive into NFL betting strategy

As an experienced sports bettor, one of the most common questions I receive is whether it‘s smarter to bet on favorites or take a chance on underdogs. After years of tracking stats and wagering my own hard-earned money, I can say definitively that there is no simple answer. Depending on the circumstance, both favorites and underdogs can be profitable. However, there are some key factors to consider that can guide your betting strategy.

Let me walk you through everything I‘ve learned about betting favorites vs. underdogs over the years. I‘ll use football as the main example, with a focus on betting against the spread (ATS) which levels the playing field. Get ready to dive into odds, payouts, statistics, psychology, and more! My goal is for you to walk away an expert on spotting profitable NFL underdog opportunities.

Favorites win more often, but underdogs provide bigger payouts

This debate ultimately boils down to risk versus reward. NFL betting favorites win straight up approximately 65-70% of the time, depending on the spread. But they usually have lower odds and potential payouts. Underdogs win less often, but when they do pull off an upset, the payouts can be huge thanks to the odds stacked against them.

Let‘s use a real NFL spread as an example:

New England Patriots -6.5 (-110) vs New York Jets +6.5 (-110)

The Patriots are 6.5 point favorites. A $110 bet on them would return $100 in profit if they win by 7+ points.

The Jets are 6.5 point underdogs. A $110 wager on them would net $100 profit if they either win outright or keep the game within 6 points.

The Patriots will likely win this game straight up. However, the +6.5 points and attractive +110 odds makes taking a chance on the underdog Jets an intriguing option. If they keep it close or pull off the upset, you‘d receive a nice payout on a small wager.

Over the long run, constantly betting big NFL favorites to just win a little money can be a slow grind. Picking your spots on live underdogs offers more upside.

Against the spread, NFL underdogs cover slightly over 50% of the time

If you‘ve ever heard casual sports fans say that favorites are usually the smart bet, don‘t listen to them! When you factor in the point spread, underdogs actually cover slightly more often than favorites in the NFL.

Over the past 30 NFL seasons, favorites have covered the spread 49.4% of the time. Underdogs have been successful ATS an almost identical 50.6% of the time, according to the Action Network. Keep in mind that includes both small 1-2 point favorites and massive 10+ point chalk.

More recently over the past 15 years, the gap between favorites and underdogs ATS has narrowed even more. But it still hovers right around the 50/50 mark.

NFL favorites and underdogs essentially break even ATS long-term.

Of course, each matchup is different based on the teams, spread, injuries, etc. But knowing that NFL dogs cover just as frequently as favorites is a great starting point in your handicapping.

Professional betting sharps target underdogs aggressively

Who are the "sharps", you ask? Sharps are professional sports bettors who wager high volumes for profit. They spend hours analyzing data, trends, and tapes to gain betting edges over the general public.

Numerous books and studies have shown that sharps consistently bet underdogs more heavily than the average public bettor. Here are a few eye-opening statistics:

• In a 2012 sample of 440 NFL games, sharps bet on the underdog ATS 58% of the time compared to just 38% for the public (source: WagerMinds)

• Over a 4 year period, 62% of point spread tickets were on favorites while 55% of the total money was bet on underdogs (source: The Action Network)

• Sharp NFL money is on the same side as the betting majority public only 33% of the time (source: Bet Labs)

The public tends to back favorites, inflating those lines and providing betting value on live underdogs that sharps eagerly pounce on. Following sharp money into unpopular underdogs is a proven winning strategy over time.

"We‘re absolutely seeking value on underdogs, not favorites," pro sports bettor Steve Fezzik told me. "Public bias leads to bad odds on dogs that smart bettors can take advantage of."

Key situations where NFL underdogs provide value

While blindly betting every single NFL underdog is not advised, there are certain situations where they tend to provide profitable payouts more often than favorites:

• As a home underdog – Since 2003, NFL home underdogs cover the spread 54% of the time and 70% of playoff upsets are by home dogs.

• Off an embarrassing loss – Teams often bounce back strongly after blowout losses, especially if they are sizable home dogs.

• With rest advantage – Road favorites playing on short rest traditionally struggle to cover big spreads.

• Receiving public betting support – If the dog starts getting more bets, chances are the line is inflated against them.

• As a divisional dog – Familiar opponents keep games close, with division dogs covering 55% the past decade.

• On primetime games – More casual public money comes in on nationally televised games, influencing lines. Dogs cover 55% on MNF and 54% on TNF.

Paying attention to key situations like these is crucial to pinpointing prime upset opportunities on live underdogs with inflated lines.

Trust the data, not emotions or biases

If there is an important takeaway from the data presented, it‘s to always trust the stats and trends over any personal biases.

Our instincts as human beings are not logical when it comes to evaluating probabilities and making betting decisions. For example, we tend to have recency bias by overreacting to what a team did last game. Bettors also gravitate toward favorite teams or high profile teams like the Cowboys.

These biases lead recreational bettors to consistently overvalue favorites and undervalue underdogs. Sharps realize this and capitalize by betting against public perception.

I‘ll be the first to admit, it can be scary making a bet on a big NFL underdog. Even if the stats support it, handing over cash on a dog feels risky. But removing emotion and relying purely on data-driven analysis will make you a winning bettor long-term.

How to determine when to bet favorites vs underdogs

I wish I could say "always bet underdogs!" or "only bet heavy favorites!", but handicapping simply doesn‘t work that way. Here is the process I use to determine whether a favorite or underdog presents the best value in a specific matchup:

1. Compare the odds. Look at the spread and moneyline odds to see which team offers the most attractive risk/reward ratio. Some favorites are simply overvalued.

2. Dig into team trends. Study how each has performed straight up and against the spread recently, especially in the role of favorite or underdog.

3. Analyze key metrics. Which is superior in key statistical categories like offensive yards per play, defensive yards per play, and turnover margin?

4. Factor in situational dynamics. Injuries, rest, travel, weather, scheduling quirks all affect which side to take.

5. Follow sharp betting moves. Monitor how pros are betting it as gameday approaches to identify value.

6. Ask yourself: Who is the public on? Fade heavy public leans if the stats support the unpopular team.

7. Bet with conviction. Once you‘ve identified an edge, don‘t let risk aversion second guess yourself. Stick with underdogs!

I find this process helps remove emotion from the equation and base my bets on objective factors that sharpen my analysis.

Final thoughts on strategic NFL betting

Hopefully this deep dive into NFL favorites vs. underdogs strategy provides a helpful framework for your own betting. Here are the key takeaways I want you to remember:

• There is no definitive right or wrong answer on favorites or dogs. Study each game independently.

• Against the spread, underdogs cover just as often as favorites over the long run. Don‘t be afraid to bet them.

• Spotting and targeting live underdogs in favorable situations is the key to long-term profit.

• Remove biases and think objectively. Follow the stats, trends, analytics, and sharp money, not emotions.

• Being a winning NFL bettor is a marathon, not a sprint. Stay patient, stick to the process, and the results will follow.

Thanks for reading! I enjoy providing research and analysis to help sharpen your NFL betting. Please reach out on Twitter any time with questions @williams_insights. Best of luck with all your wagers this upcoming season!