Why Bet on Negative Spread? A Pro Bettor‘s Guide to Picking Profitable Favorites

If you‘re new to betting spread bets, you‘ve likely noticed that teams will have either negative or positive numbers next to their spreads. A negative spread indicates the favorite while a positive spread is given to the underdog. But should you be betting these big favorites laying large negative spreads? As a pro sports bettor, I‘ll guide you through when and why betting the negative can boost your winnings.

What Does a Negative Spread Mean and Why Do Oddsmakers Use It?

Simply put, the negative spread shows which team sportsbooks view as the superior team expected to not just win a game, but win by a certain margin. These point spreads create an evening out effect between two unevenly matched teams.

For example, let‘s look at an NFL game between the 12-2 Dallas Cowboys and the 4-10 New York Giants. The raw talent and record gap suggests Dallas should easily dispatch the Giants. Oddsmakers install Dallas as -9.5 spread favorites.

This means for Dallas to cover the spread, the Cowboys need to win by 10+ points. The spread creates a challenge for Dallas to not just win, but dominate. On the flip side, the +9.5 spread gives the Giants a theoretical head start to make the game more even and interesting for bettors.

In my 20+ years as a sports betting analyst, I‘ve learned how to spot the ideal situations to target favorites on negative spreads. Keep reading as I lay out my strategy.

Why Bet on the Favorite with a Negative Spread?

While the payouts are smaller, betting on favorites with negative spreads provides some unique advantages:

1. Implied win probability is higher.

The 2022 Denver Broncos enter as -6.5 spread favorites over the lowly Houston Texans. Sportsbooks install Denver as nearly touchdown favorites due to their sizable talent edge. This large spread indicates Denver has an implied win probability around 70%, while Houston sits around 30%.

I‘ll take the team expected to win 70% of the time at reduced -110 payout over a +400 underdog with a 20% chance every day. Over time, betting on high probability spreads pays off.

2. Talent gaps lead to blowouts.

When top-tier teams face bottom feeders, lopsided scores often ensue. Last season, the 12-4 Green Bay Packers beat the 3-13 Detroit Lions 35-17 and 37-10 in their two matchups. Green Bay covered -10 and -13.5 spreads with room to spare in those contests.

Elite teams have the talent to pour it on and cover very wide margins. Our job as bettors is to identify when a major mismatch exists.

3. Minimizes upset risk.

While Cinderella stories make headlines, favorites actually have a strong track record of straight up wins. Since 2017, NFL favorites of -7 or more have a 79% win rate. I‘ll gladly lay -7 with a team expected to go 13-3 or 12-4 on the season.

With a large point cushion, it takes a complete disaster for favorites to lose outright. Steering clear of upsets is vital to long-term betting success.

4. High cover rates on parlays.

Using heavy chalk in spread bets for parlays is an advantage I exploit constantly. While a -16 favorite may only payout -600 straight up, combining them on 5 team parlays pumps the payouts to +600 or more. Their high cover rates boost the overall parlay odds significantly.

Challenges and Risks of Large Negative Spread Bets

It‘s not as easy as blindly betting on every large favorite and watching the cash roll in. There are some definite pitfalls and situations to avoid when it comes to big negative spreads:

1. Lower payouts

The bigger the spread, the lower profit margin. A -3 favorite may pay -115 odds. But a -24 favorite probably sits around -600 odds. The risk-reward ratio starts fading.

2. Backdoor covers

With a 28-0 lead, favorites start pulling starters and play prevent defense. This allows meaningless late scores and backdoor covers by underdogs. Players turn off when the game is out of reach.

3. Divisional rivalries

Familiarity breeds close games. Records often get thrown out when two bitter rivals square off. Emotions cause underdogs to play above their skill levels in rivalry spots.

4. Letdown spots

Favorites can become disinterested after a big win or looking ahead to future games. A team spotted -17 coming off a dramatic victory may sleep walk early and let a lesser foe hang around.

5. Injuries

Losing key players is challenging for any team. But it‘s amplified further for favorites being asked to cover wide margins. Missing just a couple offensive weapons can turn a -14 favorite into a -3 favorite.

How to Pick Profitable Negative Spread Bets

Through extensive data analysis, these are my top tips for identifying favorite spread bets with the highest cover probability:

Dig into cover rates

Some teams habitually cover spreads while others consistently underperform expectations. Analyzing cover rates from past seasons reveals teams with the makeup to cover large numbers.

Target historically high-scoring clubs

The 2022 Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs fit this bill. Teams capable of posting 28+ points weekly have a significant edge to cover spreads when priced as favorites.

Fade potential letdown spots

Use schedule analysis to identify if a big favorite may be emotionally compromised in certain spots. For example, I‘ll look to fade Ohio State following a rivalry or ranked team matchup.

Buy low on public overreactions

Monitor line movements and public betting trends. If a -7 favorite moves to -3.5 due to heavy underdog betting, it may present buying low opportunity.

Ride momentum trains

Teams finishing the prior season covering spreads at a high rate often continue that momentum into the new season, especially with roster continuity.

Follow coaching tendencies

Some coaches have a killer instinct and love running up scores. Others get conservative with any lead. Knowing a favorite‘s coach helps predict blowouts.

Check the forecast

Windy, rainy conditions can slow down pass-happy favorites and bring scoring down. I downgrade favorites if weather hinders their scoring style strengths.

Final Tips for Spread Betting Success

While favorites present safety, don‘t forget the underdog. Upsets happen constantly, so I recommend mixing in some small underdog plays with higher upside. This diversification keeps your bankroll balanced.

Stay patient and pick your spots. Just because a team is -14 doesn‘t make it a good play. Wait for the ideal matchup based on your research. Don‘t feel obligated to bet every game.

Hopefully this deep dive into the world of betting negative spreads gave you a clearer picture of when and how to take advantage of the oddsmakers‘ favorite teams. Take these tips and as you monitor betting lines, follow the numbers and situations that suggest prime blowout potential.