Hey There DVD Collector, Will DVDs Become Rare Collectibles?

I get asked this question a lot as a home media expert – are our big DVD collections eventually going to be valuable? Are we all sitting on goldmines from the heyday of DVDs in the 2000s? Will they be the next comics or trading cards booming in value?

Unfortunately for most of us, the short answer is no. The vast majority of common DVDs will never gain much resale value due to the huge supply produced.

However, for serious DVD collectors focused on specific rare and limited edition titles, there is still an opportunity for appreciation if you know which ones to buy.

Let me walk you through a deep dive analysis into the factors that will determine if DVDs gain value or disappear into obscurity.

DVD Sales Keep Plummeting Year After Year

To understand DVD‘s future prospects, we have to look at the trends in recent years. According to statistics from The Numbers, the market has completely collapsed:

As you can see, revenue has dropped a staggering 93% from the peak in 2004 to just $1.1 billion in 2021. DVD rentals tell a similar story, plunging from a high of $8.2 billion in 2005 down to only $317 million in 2021.

The reasons are obvious – video on demand services like iTunes emerged along with the disruptive force of streaming on Netflix, Hulu and beyond. DVDs became obsolete seemingly overnight!

Now in 2022, over 83% of US households subscribe to at least one streaming service according to Leichtman Research Group. Will an entire generation growing up streaming even know what a DVD is?

Which DVDs Will Actually Become Valuable Collectibles?

Despite the grim overall outlook, there are certain DVD titles that are already rare and valuable for collectors:

• Out of print cult classics – Movies and TV shows with devoted fanbases like Freaks and Geeks command high prices when no longer in production.

• Special and limited editions – Unique packaging like steelbooks as well as limited run quantities under 100k units can drive up resale value.

• Complete TV series – Full box sets of classic shows before they go off the market attract collectors willing to pay premium prices.

• Signed editions – Autographed copies and promotional editions have extra appeal for superfans of that film or celebrity.

• Imports and bootlegs – Foreign region releases and unauthorized recordings of live concerts or events are highly coveted.

For example, niche titles like the Blade Runner briefcase box set sold for $60 back in 2012 but now fetch over $700 on eBay. Out of print horror DVDs from niche studios like Synapse regularly sell for $100 or more. And special editions of classic anime series easily clear $500.

But outside of these narrow categories, most common DVDs have little inherent value.

Sorry, Your DVD Collection Probably Won‘t Be Worth Much

It pains me to say this fellow movie buffs, but the stacks of DVDs gathering dust in your closet are likely destined for yard sales and thrift shops rather than auction houses.

Beyond the rare exceptions noted above, mainstream DVD releases have minimal resale upside because of:

• Sheer abundance – Even limited theatrical releases were pressed in the hundreds of thousands of units or more, ensuring ongoing supply.

• Disc rot – DVDs degrade over time. The coating and data layers can deteriorate and become unplayable.

• Lack of players – DVD players are becoming outdated tech destined for landfills. Without viable playback devices, demand diminishes.

• Digital alternatives – Any movie or show on DVD can be streamed or downloaded in digital formats. Physical media becomes redundant.

To understand their low value, you just have to look at similarly obsolete formats:

• Common VHS tapes sell for $1 or less in huge bundles. Even Disney clamshells only fetch $5-$10.

• Outside of rare titles, most Laserdiscs go for under $5 as well.

• Replacement cases and artwork are worth more than the actual CDs or DVDs for all but the rarest titles.

It‘s simple supply and demand economics – with DVDs still widely available at thrift stores and Yard sales for $1, paying more than $10 or $20 for common used titles just makes no sense. Their intrinsic value is very low.

Projecting the Future Value of DVDs

Predicting future price trajectories years out is always tricky. But we can look to the history of VHS tapes for some potential scenarios:

Next 5 Years

Little will change – DVDs will still be cheap and plentiful with only minor increases in price for the most sought after titles.

Projected Prices:

• Common Titles – $1 to $10
• Uncommon Titles – $10 to $50
• Rare Titles – $50 to $200

10 Year Outlook

As DVD playback technology fades away, prices start to gradually increase across the board with more titles going out of print.

Projected Prices:

• Common Titles – $5 to $15
• Uncommon Titles – $25 to $75
• Rare Titles – $100 to $400

20+ Year Outlook

DVDs are a niche format with degraded discs. Remaining inventory keeps most prices reasonable but highly rare finds command premium pricing.

Projected Prices:

• Common Titles – $10 to $25
• Uncommon Titles – $50 to $150
• Rare Titles – $250 to $1000

But even in 20+ years, it‘s unlikely than any than ultra-rare titles will reach the level of old comics, coins, or vinyl LPs worth thousands. The supply was simply too high.

Tips for Collecting DVDs as an Investment

If you do want to collect DVDs strategically as an investment, here are some tips:

• Focus on limited editions – unique packaging, bonus materials, and run sizes under 50,000 units have the most upside.

• Buy niche genres – horror, anime, cult films, and concert recordings tend to become rare finds.

• Monitor out of print status – when a title becomes unavailable, prices will start to climb.

• Maintain your players – Keep DVD players, home theater systems, and CRT televisions operational for playback.

• Grade condition – Near mint and sealed copies command much higher prices than well-worn discs.

• Research recent sales – Check Sold eBay listings to assess real market values.

• Catalog and insure – Use library software and back up rare titles to safeguard your investment.

• Sell common titles – Liquidate discs unlikely to appreciate to maximize ROI on your collection.

My Honest Opinion – Let DVDs Die

As physical media experts, we may want to see DVDs live on forever. But sometimes formats fade away for good reason. In my opinion, outside of a few cherished titles, the smart choice is to sell or donate your DVDs now to declutter your home.

With the tiny returns you might earn 10+ years from now, it just isn‘t worth boxing up and moving a huge DVD library from place to place. The shelf space, storage fees, and time spent cataloging rarely pay off.

Of course, everyone has their own preferences and budgets. But for me, streaming and digital downloads offer plenty of convenience and flexibility for enjoying movies at home. I don‘t miss sorting through disc binders or scrubbing scratched DVDs one bit!

My advice is to scan the barcode of each DVD with your phone. If it‘s worth under $10 right now, toss it in the donate pile and let it bring joy to someone else rather than collect dust.

Slowly replace favorites you want to keep with cheap digital copies. Then retire your players and enjoy the simplicity of streaming and downloading films directly to any device.

DVDs had a good run, but their time is passing. Let‘s cherish the memories, preserve the rare gems, and happily move forward into the digital future together!

What are your thoughts on building a DVD collection vs going all digital? I‘d love to hear your take!