Will DVDs Become Rare?

The short answer is no—most standard DVDs will never become rare or valuable collectibles due to the mass production runs in the 2000s and 2010s. However, for serious movie fans, specific limited edition DVD releases of popular films will likely maintain decent resale value due to demand from collectors looking to own complete libraries of their favorite franchises or directors. This detailed guide looks at the factors that will determine rarity.

DVD Sales Dropped 86% Between 2006 and 2020

The era of DVD dominance is clearly over. According to the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), annual DVD sales totals plunged from about $16 billion to just over $2 billion in that period. A steep decline that reflects changing consumer habits. The RIAA also reported that in 2021, DVDs and Blu-rays accounted for just 5% of total at-home entertainment spending—down from nearly 25% a decade ago.

Streaming now commands the lion‘s share of the market. Statista projects the global video streaming market will grow to over $119 billion in 2024, driven by services like Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+ and others. This leaves DVDs fading as a niche rather than the juggernaut they once were.

Most DVDs Were Mass Produced in the Billions

During the peak years of 2000 to 2010, major studios mass produced DVD releases, pressing tens or even hundreds of millions of copies for blockbuster titles. To put this in perspective, a very popular DVD that sold 5 million copies initially would still have 95% of its inventory remaining if 100 million discs were created. With supply so vastly outweighing demand, most typical DVDs just don‘t have the scarcity factor that drives collectibility.

Harry Potter DVD Sales Paint a Picture

To illustrate, the first Harry Potter film, The Sorcerer‘s Stone, sold over 14 million DVD units as of 2016. Impressive, but when 150-200 million discs exist, that‘s barely a dent. Even franchises as beloved as Harry Potter were printed in such enormous numbers that the original DVDs hold little residual value. They just aren‘t rare enough unless still sealed.

Exceptions Do Exist – Especially Limited Editions

Despite the majority of DVDs being nearly worthless, exceptions do exist. Limited edition box sets, special packaging like steelbooks, or very low initial production runs can all contribute to a disc maintaining decent collectible value. Because DVD production of niche titles aimed at smaller target audiences was smaller, supply can be limited.

The Criterion Collection Attracts Collectors

For classic and foreign films, DVD releases by specialty publishers like Criterion are great examples. With exacting film transfers and lovingly curated bonus content, cinephiles covet these editions. Used Criterion DVDs often retain 50% or more of original value years later due to film buff demand.

Franchise Box Sets Generate High Demand

Devoted fans seeking to own full libraries of their favorite movie or TV franchises also drive demand. Box sets packaging entire series runs in deluxe collections are hot items. Even damaged packaging can seriously dent resale value. Again, scarcity due to lower production numbers contributes to sustained value.

Nostalgia May Boost Value – But it Will Take Time

Just like the return of vinyl records, DVDs could regain some of their appeal down the road due to nostalgia. But don‘t expect this to happen too quickly. As older generations who grew up streaming become adults, fond memories of childhood movie nights or excited trips to the DVD store could ignite sentimental demand.

Yet this is unlikely to occur until at least the 2040s or 2050s – when DVDs would be 50+ years old. Right now, streaming dominates, so nostalgia has not set in. But for a 25 year old in 2050, 40 year old DVDs of beloved 1990s and 2000s movies could absolutely hold appeal.

Proper Storage is Key for Preservation

To maintain playability for as long as possible, collectors should carefully store DVDs by avoiding direct sunlight, high temperatures, and humidity. Stacking discs horizontally in their cases will help prevent warping. Always hold discs by the edges and avoid touching the bottom surface. Even delicate fingerprints can impact reading laser reflection.

Realistically though, all discs gradually decay. According to the Library of Congress, estimated DVD lifespan often ranges from 30 to 100 years. Discs created with high quality processes and materials will last longer. So proper care is critical, but no discs will last forever.

Average Prices Demonstrate Lack of Rarity

A visit to any used DVD shop quickly confirms most are nearly worthless now. According to ecommerce analytics site Worthpoint, the average secondhand sale price for a DVD is just $3. Unless still factory sealed, few approach their original list price. A cult classic DVD released in 2000 for $25 might fetch $10 today. This huge drop in value reveals how little scarcity or collector demand exists for most titles.

Some Retain Higher Value

Of course, nostalgic classics like Jurassic Park or Pixar titles do maintain solid resale value. For example, the original Shrek DVD still sells for around $25 sealed. And specialty releases like the Lord of the Rings Extended Editions box set can sell for hundreds. But for run-of-the-mill used DVDs, low prices rule the day.

How to Identify Potentially Valuable DVDs

For collectors looking to build a library of DVDs that may become rare, here are signs to look for:

• Prestige directors – Scorsese, Spielberg, Kubric
• Special packaging – Steelbooks, box sets, collector‘s series
• Very limited press runs – under 50,000 copies
• Out of print for extended periods
• Cult films or acclaimed box office hits
• Definitive editions of genre classics – sci-fi, horror, fantasy
• Unopened copies still in shrink wrap

The Bottom Line – Most DVDs Will Stay Common

Due to the perfect storm of peak production overlapping with growing streaming dominance, many DVD titles will remain in plentiful supply. Outside of the exception noted here, most studios flooded the market so profoundly that achieving true rarity is impossible. But for fans of cinema history and pop culture, select DVDs will likely maintain appeal and value. Though still a shrinking part of the industry, DVDs appear poised to become a niche rather than vanishing entirely.