Should you take even money in blackjack?

Taking even money in blackjack refers to when a player is offered to immediately collect their bet at 1:1 odds when the dealer shows an Ace instead of playing out the hand against the dealer‘s potential blackjack. This article analyzes when even money makes sense mathematically and strategically for blackjack players.

What is even money in blackjack?

In blackjack, if the dealer‘s upcard is an Ace, they have roughly a 30% chance of having a 10-value card in the hole for blackjack. When this happens, the player‘s blackjack is a "push" and their bet is returned.

To offset this risk of a push, many casinos allow the player to take "even money" and collect their bet at 1:1 odds immediately, irrespective of whether the dealer has blackjack or not. Essentially, the player is trading the opportunity to earn a 3:2 payout on their blackjack for the certainty of getting their bet back, even if the dealer also has blackjack.

Even money is commonly offered when:

• The player has blackjack and dealer has an Ace showing
• The player has a blackjack side bet at risk and dealer has Ace showing

The math behind even money

To determine if even money makes sense, we need to calculate its expected value (EV) and compare it to the EV of playing out the hand normally.

Here‘s a breakdown of the probabilities and payouts in the common scenario where the player has blackjack and dealer shows an Ace:

• Taking even money has an EV of +1 x 70.26% + 1 x 29.74% = +1x your bet
• Declining even money has an EV of +1.5 x 70.26% + 0 x 29.74% = +1.05x your bet

Therefore, declining even money and playing out your blackjack normally has a higher EV and is more profitable in the long run. The exception is when blackjacks pay 6:5, where even money has a nearly equal EV.

Why even money is usually disadvantageous

Except in the niche 6:5 blackjack scenario, even money carries a lower EV and higher house edge for the player. You are essentially paying a premium to remove the variance and guarantee a win when the dealer has blackjack.

According to blackjack expert Henry Tamburin, the house edge increases by over 3% when players always take even money. This results in forfeiting a significant portion of potential profits over the long run.

Furthermore, the variance that even money protects you from is not detrimental. While pushes may be psychologically frustrating, they have no impact on your bankroll. So removing the possibility of a push provides no mathematical value.

When even money may be correct

There are a few niche cases where even money carries merit:

• Blackjack side bets: Some side bets like Lucky Ladies pay even money on the player‘s blackjack regardless of the dealer‘s cards. Here, taking even money guarantees collecting the side bet.

• Tournament play: In a blackjack tournament, players may need to wager more chips to win their bracket. Taking even money ensures additional bets instead of a push.

• 6:5 blackjack payouts: The reduced 6:5 payout on blackjack makes even money comparably EV+ to playing out the hand.

• Counters with negative deck: Card counters with a very ten-rich remaining deck may take even money to lock in profit.

How even money compares to insurance

Insurance in blackjack works similarly to even money – the player can wager up to half their bet to get paid 2:1 if the dealer has blackjack. This protection comes at the cost of a 7.4% house edge on insurance wagers.

Even money with normal 3:2 blackjack payouts is comparable but slightly better than insurance with a 3% house edge. However, both options are still recommended to be avoided by basic strategy players, as they carry significant long term costs.

Expert tips on even money decisions

Here are some tips from blackjack experts on making optimal even money decisions:

• "Unless the blackjack payout is 6:5, don‘t take even money. The house edge against you is too high." (BlackjackInfo)

• "Only take even money if you‘re a huge underdog in a tournament and need the extra bets." (Max Rubin)

• "If you have blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace, wave off the even money offer. You‘ll win more by playing out the hand." (Arnold Snyder)

• "Carefully consider the payouts and game rules before taking even money. Make sure the math works out in your favor." (Jean Scott)

When to decline even money

Unless you are playing in a tournament, have a vulnerable side bet in play, or are at a 6:5 blackjack table, you should decline even money in the vast majority of scenarios. The cost of removing the variance of a dealer blackjack is too high relative to the long term expected value.

Here are some common spots where even money should always be avoided:

• Dealer has Ace up and you have a natural blackjack
• Dealer has Ace up and you have 20, 19 or any other strong hand
• No special circumstances in play like a side bet or tournament format

Key takeaways on even money

Below are some key tips to remember about even money in blackjack:

• Even money allows you to immediately collect your bet at 1:1 when the dealer has an Ace, instead of playing out the hand
• Taking even money has a lower EV than standard 3:2 blackjack payouts and costs over 3% in extra house edge
• Even money makes sense at 6:5 tables, with vulnerable side bets, and in some tournament situations
• Except in niche cases, avoid even money and play out your strong hands for higher potential payouts
• Neither even money nor insurance are advantageous for basic strategy players in typical blackjack games
• When in doubt, decline even money and rely on the optimal strategy for your specific blackjack rules and scenario

Making smart even money decisions takes an understanding of the math and long term impact on your bottom line. By knowing when to take and decline even money, blackjack players can boost their odds of leaving the table a winner.