What does 3 way total goals mean? An in-depth look at betting on goal totals

Hey there sports betting friend! Terry here, your resident tech and data geek. As a passionate sports fan and frequent contributor to 33rdsquare.com, I wanted to provide a comprehensive explainer on what it means to bet on "3 way total goals" in soccer betting. I know this type of bet can be confusing for beginners, so strap in as I break it down in detail.

Overview of 3 Way Total Goals

At the most basic level, a "3 way total goals" bet allows you to wager on whether the total number of goals scored in a soccer match will be over, under, or exactly a certain number set by the sportsbook.

For example:

• Over 2.5 goals
• Under 2.5 goals
• Exactly 2 goals

If you bet the Over 2.5, you need 3 or more goals to be scored to win. If you bet the Under 2.5, you need 2 or fewer goals scored to win. And if you bet Exactly 2 goals, you only win if the final score ends up being 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. Pretty straightforward, right?

Now let‘s get into the nitty gritty details on how these 3 way total goal bets work, along with data-driven insights and proven betting strategies. I‘ve crunched the numbers so you have a statistical edge.

How Scoring Works in Soccer

Before we dive into the strategic element of 3 way total bets, it‘s important to understand how scoring works in soccer. Unlike high-scoring sports like basketball or football, goals are infrequent in soccer. The average goals per game across top European leagues is around 2.5 to 3.

According to my analysis of stats from FBRef.com, here are the average goals scored per game in the top 5 European leagues over the last 5 seasons:

As you can see, league averages range from 2.53 to 3.17 goals per match. This relatively low scoring volume is important to understand, as even a small difference in total goals can majorly swing your bet.

Choosing Your 3 Way Total

Sportsbooks will set a variety of goal totals for each match, usually starting at 2 or 2.5 goals. This number is based on factors like the teams‘ scoring rates, injuries, and current form.

It‘s important to consider the implied probability for each of the 3 outcomes based on the total.

For example, let‘s say the total is set at 2.5 goals for Liverpool vs Manchester United. The probabilities may look something like:

• Liverpool Wins 2–0 (Under 2.5 goals) – 18% chance
• Liverpool Wins 3–1 (Over 2.5 goals) – 15%
• Draw 1-1 (Exactly 2 goals) – 12%
• Other result – 55%

This means the sportsbook believes Under 2.5 goals has the highest chance of hitting at 18%. But there is still a decent 27% chance of the Over or Exactly options winning.

As a general rule, I like to target totals with around a 15–25% implied probability of hitting. This balances the risk vs reward. Betting on extremes like "Over 4.5 goals" may have long odds, but only hit 10% of the time.

Key Stats to Evaluate Totals

When predicting whether a match will go Over or Under a set total, I dig into team stats like:

• Goals scored per game: How often does each team find the back of the net? Home and away splits are important too.

• Shots on target per game: The quality of chances created. More shots = more goals.

• Recent goal totals: Form over the last 5-10 games shows whether scoring is on the rise or declining.

• Head-to-head trends: Some team matchups consistently play high or low scoring.

• Injuries/suspensions: Missing an elite scorer like Kane or Salah negatively impacts totals.

Combining all these factors, along with my own observations from watching games, helps make informed total predictions. Here‘s an example data table I might put together for a match:

As you can see, Liverpool has been more prolific in attack recently, taking more shots and scoring more goals. Combined with red hot Salah, this leans toward betting the Over 2.5 goals.

Betting Strategies and Tips

After analyzing the stats and matchup, here are some of my top strategies for successful 3 way total betting:

• Target home favorites: Teams score more often at home. Bet Over on matchups like Liverpool hosting Bournemouth.

• Fade defensive/low-scoring teams: Burnley, Atletico Madrid, Inter Milan. Their games often stay Under.

• Watch for motivation: Teams out of title/relegation races may see totals rise in meaningless end-of-season matches.

• Follow sharp money: Keep an eye on where respected bettors ("sharps") are putting their money, especially close to match time when insider info emerges.

• Have accounts at multiple books: Compare totals at various sportsbooks. Differences in their settings creates betting opportunities.

• Think odds, not goals: 3.5 goals seems higher than 2.5, but if the odds are better, it can be the smarter bet. Judge based on implied probability.

Those tips should give you a strategic edge on 3 way totals. But ultimately, do your research and go with your gut! Scoring trends can turn quickly in soccer, so don‘t get caught overthinking.

Thanks for reading my deep dive on this unique soccer bet! Whether you prefer rooting for goals or defense, 3 way totals provide the versatility to bet either Over or Under. So don‘t be afraid to give this a try the next time you‘re looking to get some action on a football match. And as always, bet responsibly – gamble should be fun!

Let me know if you have any other soccer betting topics you want me to cover in a future post. I‘m always happy to share my stats and strategy experience. Enjoy the games my friend!