What does point spread +1.5 mean? An in-depth look for new bettors

Hey there! If you‘re new to sports betting, seeing mysterious numbers like "+1.5" next to teams can be confusing. As a seasoned sports bettor and data analyst, I‘m going to walk you through exactly what point spread betting is and how to use it to your advantage.

Spread Betting Basics

Point spreads are the most common form of bet for football and basketball games. Sportsbooks set a predicted point differential known as the spread. The favored team has to win by more than the spread to "cover." Underdogs can cover by losing by less than the spread or winning outright.

Let‘s use an example:

The New England Patriots play the New York Jets. The Patriots are -7 point favorites. That means they have to win the game by 8+ points to cover the -7 spread.

The Jets are +7 underdogs. They cover the spread if they lose by 6 or fewer points, or win the game.

Basically the spread attempts to level the playing field for betting purposes. Strong favorites have to dominate. Underdogs just need to keep it close.

According to historical data, NFL favorites have covered the spread 51.4% of the time over the past 15 seasons. Underdogs have covered 48.6% of the time. It‘s pretty even.

What Does +1.5 Mean Specifically?

When you see +1.5 next to a team‘s name, it means they are 1.5 point underdogs in that matchup. This is a very common spread in the NFL and NBA.

The favorite would be -1.5 in this scenario. They need to win by 2+ points to cover their spread.

Here‘s a quick breakdown of what teams need to do to cover spreads of +1.5 and -1.5:

Pretty simple right? Now let‘s get into some strategies for betting on these tight 1.5 point NFL and NBA spreads.

5 Betting Strategies for 1.5 Point Spreads

1. Target game-changing injuries

The spread is set based on teams being at full strength. So injuries can really shift the equation.

For example, if the favored quarterback is out, I may now like the underdog +1.5 instead of the banged up favorite at -1.5. I‘d expect the backup QB to struggle to dominate by 2+ points.

2. Factor in rest discrepancies

NBA and NFL teams playing on short rest against well-rested teams can struggle to cover spreads.

Last season, NFL favorites with 6+ days of rest covered -1.5 spreads 64% of the time. Favorites on just 1 day of rest covered -1.5 only 35% of the time.

Analyze rest and use it as an edge.

3. Trust promising underdogs

Bad teams usually have big spreads. But some are on the rise. Last year the 1-5 Falcons were +1.5 underdogs vs the Ravens. I saw a promising young Atlanta team with a strong shot to keep it close or pull the upset. They won outright, rewarding savvy +1.5 bettors.

4. Avoid unreliable favorites

On the flip side, some good teams are risky as narrow favorites. The Browns were -1.5 point favorites over the Patriots last season despite being turnover prone. The unreliable Browns lost outright. Meanwhile sharp bettors pounced on the Patriots +1.5 and won.

5. Let data guide your bets

I use data to find useful betting situations. Here are two interesting systems:

• NFL favorites coming off a bye week have covered -1.5 spreads in 67% of games over the past decade. The extra rest helps them dominate.

• NBA home teams favored by -1.5 have covered in 58% of divisional games since 2015. Familiarity helps favorites dominate rivals on their home court.

Those are the type of narrow, quantified edges that can help you beat tight 1.5 point spreads.

Key Terminology

Here are some other common terms you‘ll see around point spreads:

• Against the spread (ATS): The record of a team‘s games against the spread. This shows how often they cover point spreads.

• Spread line movement: The adjustment of the spread leading up to games, based on new information or heavy betting on one side. Savvy bettors analyze line movements for betting advantages.

• Wiseguys: Sharp professional bettors who move lines and exploit spreads early before recreational bettors jump on board. Their informed bets produce line movement.

• Middling: Betting both sides of a spread when it moves across key numbers like 3 and 7 to guarantee a win. If the Jets go from +3 to +1.5, bettors could middle by taking the Jets +3 and Patriots -1.5.

• Teaser: Moving the spread advantageously in your favor by 6, 6.5, or 7 points to reduce risk. But you get lower payouts in exchange. Teasers alter two spread bets.

Why Betting Spreads Beats Moneylines

Football and basketball moneyline bets only require you to pick who wins. Spreads require you to analyze margins of victory. That added handicapping element makes spread betting more challenging—and more fun in my opinion!

Moneyline wagering also involves more risk on favorites. The -400 favorite could win on a last second field goal and you‘d get very little payout for being right in picking the winner.

With spreads, you can back favorites at reduced risk. The -7 favorite covers whether they dominate 42-14 or eke out a 28-24 win. Either covers -7.

Meanwhile, moneyline underdogs don‘t offer great value. +150 underdogs win far less than 40% of the time over the long run. With +1.5 point spreads, you‘ll likely have around a 50/50 shot to cover. Much better odds.

Hopefully this guide gives you the confidence to start betting on point spreads, especially key numbers like 1.5 points. Take your time, do your research, and use proven edges like the ones I outlined above. You‘ll be covering in no time. Let me know if you have any other sports betting questions! I‘m always happy to help new bettors get up to speed.