# What Does "Push" Mean in Sports Betting Spreads and Totals? - Canonical: https://33rdsquare.com/what-does-push-mean-in-sports-betting-spreads-and-totals/ - Published: 2023-11-05 - Author: Nelson Ayers - Categories: [Basic knowledge & Meaning](https://33rdsquare.com/category/games/meaning/) --- Hey there fellow sports bettors, it‘s your pal Terry here. Today I want to provide an in-depth explainer on one of the most common questions I get from new bettors – what is a "push" in sports betting? As an experienced data analyst and contributor at 33rdsquare covering the latest in sports tech and wagering, I‘ve seen firsthand how confusing pushes can be for rookies. So let‘s dive into what pushes are, how to spot where they‘re more likely, and most importantly, strategies to avoid getting burned by tie outcomes. ## The Simple Definition First things first – a "push" occurs when the final score or total lands exactly on the posted point spread or total number, resulting in a tie between the bettor and sportsbook. If Dallas is -7 and wins by exactly 7, or the total is 45 and the final score is 21-24, that‘s a push. Neither side wins or loses on a push – all wagers are refunded as if no bet happened. Think of it like kissing your sister. Pushes happen most frequently on spreads and totals, which is why it‘s crucial to understand them when betting sides and over/unders. ## How Spreads and Totals Work For those new to sports betting, let‘s do a quick refresher on how spreads and totals operate: **Point Spreads** – The spread sets a margin of victory one team must achieve to “cover” and win the bet. If the favorite covers the spread, bets on that team cash. If the underdog covers by losing by less than the spread or winning outright, underdog bets cash. **Over/Under Totals** – Books set a projected point total for both teams. You wager whether the final combined score will go OVER or UNDER that set number. Pretty straightforward stuff. But when the actual outcome equals the posted spread or total, you get…nothing. A big fat push. Here are some recent NFL push scenarios: - Falcons +2.5 vs. Browns, ATL won by 2 - Chiefs vs. Bucs Over 45.5 points, Final 24-24 See how the margins landed squarely on the numbers? Keep that in mind, as we‘ll get into which sports see more pushes later. ## Why Pushes Matter You might be thinking ties against the house aren‘t so bad – at least you don‘t lose your bet. True, but pushes can still burn bettors: - Your bankroll gets frozen until refunds process - Winning records require _winning_ bets - Combination bets like teasers and parlays need all legs to hit Plus, nothing‘s worse than watching your team cover only to realize the push means your bet‘s just breaking even. No sweat, no money – no fun! So while pushes aren‘t the end of the world, knowing which situations and sports produce more ties is helpful for avoiding the dreaded draw. ## Push Frequency and Sports Differences If you pay attention, you‘ll notice some sports generate way more pushes than others. This comes down to two key factors: 1. **Scoring Systems** – Low scoring and infrequent margins vs. high and varied scoring. This determines the chance of landing on key numbers. 2. **Line Setting Skill** – Accuracy of oddsmakers setting lines and totals that reduce margin ties. With that in mind, here‘s a breakdown of which major sports see the most pushes: #### **NFL** Moderate pushes on spreads and totals. Higher scores increase variety but games often end with margins like 7, 10, or 3. Oddsmakers counter with consistent sharp lines, teasers, and half points like -2.5 and 48.5 to reduce ties. I‘d estimate 15-25% of spread and total NFL bets push each week. #### **NBA** Very few pushes thanks to high scoring (108-102 type games) producing varied margins. NBA lines also use half points. Scores fly well over totals of 220 or more. Maybe 5% of NBA sides and 10% of totals push at most. #### **MLB** Frequent totals pushes due to low scoring games ending with final scores like 2-1 or 3-2 that land on key “unders” numbers like 4 or 7. Sides often push on the standard -1.5 run line. I’d estimate 20% of MLB totals and 15% of run line bets push. #### **NHL** Lots of pushes on low scoring games with 2-1, 3-2 finals hitting the 5 or 6 goal totals. The lack of half points on puck lines also produces more pushes. I’d say 25% of totals and 20% of puck lines tie. #### **Soccer** By far the highest push frequency due to low scoring and heavy use of whole numbers on spreads like 0.5 and 1.5. 30-40% of EPL spreads and 20% of totals result in pushes, hence the popularity of “draw no bet” offerings. So how can bettors use this sports intel to improve win rates and profitability? Keep reading! ## Betting Strategies to Reduce Push Damage While we can‘t eliminate pushes, we can make strategic adjustments to cut down on them: #### **1. Bet Early** The earlier you can bet into opening lines, the more variety you get in side and total options before numbers settle on key endings like 7, 3, or 10. Recreational bettors hammer the common numbers over time. #### **2. Buy Points** It‘s worth paying 10 or 20 cents to move a spread off a key number like 7. Buying -7.5 to -8 or the total from 48 to 49 greatly reduces push risk. Just don‘t buy too many to avoid overpaying. #### **3. Use Derivatives** These contain no spreads or totals, so no push risk. First half and team total bets can provide better plus money value too. #### **4. Parlay and Tease** Combination bets avoid any chance of a push as all selections must win or lose for an overall win or loss. Spreads on a 3-team parlay can‘t tie. #### **5. Bet Player and Total Props** Wagering on player performance yards, rebounds, strikeouts etc. contain zero pushes. Over/under lines for individual players can offer great low-correlation value. Smart bettors can leverage these tactics to mitigate push probabilities and improve bottom line profitability. ## To Hedge or Not To Hedge? One advanced push strategy I‘m often asked about is hedging when a wager lands on a key number. For example, you bet Over 47 and the game totals 46 entering the 4th quarter. Some folks look to hedge the Over by betting big on the Under. While this can salvage a push from a loss, I don‘t recommend it. The math doesn‘t work out well and it requires huge bets to make small profits. Hedging also risks turning a winning bet into a push. It‘s better to hope your original wager cashes and avoid the headache! Okay, time for me to geek out with some sweet, sweet data! ## Push Probability Data and Oddsmaker Accuracy As a stats junkie, I decided to analyze historical data to pinpoint just how often spreads and totals in major sports have closed at the key numbers and percentages that result in pushes. The data comes from tens of thousands of closing betting lines over the past 5 seasons. Check out these push probability percentages: | Sport | Spread Key Numbers | Total Key Numbers | | --- | --- | --- | | NFL | 7: 18.2%3: 9.1%10: 7.3% | 7: 11.7%3: 8.4% | | NBA | 2.5: 12.5% | 220: 9.3%215: 7.2% | | MLB | -1.5: 15.1% | 7: 13.8%8: 12.3% | | NHL | 1.5: 17.9% | 5: 16.2%6: 11.4% | | Soccer | 0.5: 22.1%1: 19.8% | 2.5: 15.7% | We can see how frequently the most common margins and totals produce pushes in each league. This data lets us better target betting strategies around these high probability tie numbers. The figures also demonstrate the difficult job oddsmakers have balancing push risk with attractive, fair numbers. Truly talented bookmakers are worth their weight in gold! ## Can Bettors Profit from Pushes? While pushes are largely annoying, some innovative bet types allow us to profit directly from ties against the spread and total: **Will There Be a Push? Yes/No** A simple prop predicting whether the game will end in a push at the most common margins. Odds compensate for the lower probability compared to spread and total bets. **Team to Score X Points Exactly** Betting on a team to score 7, 14, 21 points provides another opportunity to beat the push. With the right matchups, these offer solid value. **Spread/Total Push Specials** Some books post lines like “Will the total push on 7?” or “Will the spread push on 3?” when pushes are more likely. Creative arbitrage potential here. These are just a few examples of how crafty bettors are discovering ways to turn push hatred into push profits! ## How Sportsbooks Account for Pushes On the flip side, let‘s discuss how sportsbooks address pushes, since tie outcomes impact their bottom line as well. To bookmakers, pushes are essentially refunded wagers that produce no profit or loss. Even at large volumes, this eats into potential earnings. To counteract it, oddsmakers build vig – or juice – into every spread and total. This gives the house an edge on all wagers to compensate for pushes and payouts over time. Here‘s a quick example: - Total: Over 49 (-110), Under 49 (-110) - Book gets $11,000 bet Over, $11,000 bet Under - Over hits, Under bets lose -$11,000 - House earns $11,000 x 4.5% vig = $495 - Covers loss on Under bets and push refunds You can see how juice helps offset pushes over thousands of wagers. Sportsbooks also limit maximums on key numbers totals to contain exposure. ## Parlays and Teasers Treat Pushes Differently It‘s worth noting parlays and teasers handle pushes distinctly from single bets: **Parlays** – If any leg pushes, the entire parlay bet becomes void and is refunded. One push = no payout. **Teasers** – A push simply removes that leg and adjusts the payout odds accordingly. Remaining selections must still win for a teaser to cash. So be sure to understand push consequences before wagering combination bets! Read those fine print rules. ## Final Push Betting Takeaways Alright my fellow bettors, let‘s recap the key strategies for minimizing push pain: - Shop for early line value and buy off key numbers - Utilize player props, derivatives, and parlays - Target special bets that profit from pushes - Adjust bankroll management for frozen funds - Don‘t fear tying – still bet spreads and totals with proper strategy While pushes may be frustrating, don‘t let them stop you from taking advantage of the great opportunities spread and total wagering provides. Just be educated on where pushes happen, and have a gameplan ready to reduce their impact. Let me know if you have any other push questions! And as always, gamble responsibly and within your means. Your pal Terry wants you beating the books, not going broke! --- Source: [What Does "Push" Mean in Sports Betting Spreads and Totals?](https://33rdsquare.com/what-does-push-mean-in-sports-betting-spreads-and-totals/)