What is a Negative Spread Bet? An In-Depth Guide for Sports Bettors

Hey there sports fans, it‘s your pal Terry here – back again to drop some knowledge bombs about one of my favorite types of sports wagers: the negative spread bet.

As you probably know, I‘m obsessed with all things sports betting related. I constantly have my eyes on the latest odds, stat trends, line movements, and any tidbit that can give me an edge. My passion for analytics and numbers helps me make some killer predictions!

In this post, I want to provide you with a deep-dive into negative spread betting. Together, we‘ll explore why they‘re used, how to take advantage of them, key strategy tips, and tons of sports examples so you can master this bet type. Get ready to become a spread betting pro!

Spread Betting Basics

First things first, let‘s make sure we‘re all on the same page with what a point spread bet actually is.

A point spread sets a margin of victory one team needs to win by in order to cash the bet. Sportsbooks create these spreads so that both teams in a game get betting action since one is typically better than the other.

Let‘s look at a real example:

New England Patriots -7
Miami Dolphins +7

In this matchup, the Patriots are expected to beat the Dolphins easily. But who would bet on Miami if they were just straight underdogs? The +7 spread gives them a chance, while the Pats now need to win by over a touchdown to cover.

This is an easy case of a negative spread. The minus sign (-) always indicates the favorite while the plus sign (+) marks the underdog.

Make sense so far? Now let‘s dive deeper into why we bet negative numbers and how to crush these wagers!

Why Bet on Negative Spreads?

More often than not, you‘ll be looking to bet on favorites laying points versus taking dogs getting points. There are some solid reasons to target teams with negative spreads:

Higher Win Probability

The team expected to win big must be superior, hence being the favorite. Over the long run, favorites cover negative spreads more often than underdogs cover positive ones.

Get Better Odds

Favorites lay points, but also typically have much lower and more attractive moneyline odds for straight bets. Their spread odds offer lower risk than moneylines most of the time.

Unique Handicapping

It‘s a different skill predicting by how much a superior team will win compared to just picking them straight up. Intriguing wrinkle!

Chance to Hedge

If you bet a favorite‘s moneyline, you can also take their spread as insurance in case they win close. Losing one bet but winning the other softens the blow.

More Options

A favorite has two ways to cash a spread bet – winning by enough or outright. An underdog must win straight up to hit a moneyline bet.

How to Successfully Handicap Negative Spreads

Picking winning favorites against the spread takes knowing the right things to analyze. Here‘s what I look at:

Study Trends

• Some teams are spread covering machines based on style of play and coaching. I track long-term spread records.
• Example: the Warriors covered 67% last year as spread favorites.

Watch Line Moves

• Pros bet early and move numbers. If a spread gets larger, it signals sharp action.
• Example: Rams open -3, quickly move to -5.5. The steam indicates heavy pro money on LA.

Rest & Preparation

• Well-rested and extensively prepared teams tend to cover easier.
• Example: Chiefs with extra rest off a bye, facing an opponent on short rest.

Letdown Spots

• Certain situational spots like after big wins or ahead of rival games produce spread fails.
• Example: Alabama may overlook unranked Vanderbilt before facing Auburn.

Injuries & Personnel

• Missing starters shrinks margins of victory. I check injury reports religiously.
• Example: Bengals won‘t cover big without star QB Joe Burrow.

Motivation Levels

• Sometimes big favorites lose intensity. Close spreads indicate urgency to blow teams out.
• Example: Packers need to cover -17 to clinch playoff bye for maximum effort.

Why Bet on Positive Spreads?

While I target betting negative spreads most of the time, positives spreads are also useful:

More Value

Underdogs see their spread odds and moneyline odds inflated. Payouts can be huge if they pull the upset.

Easier to Cover

It‘s difficult for favorites to cover large numbers consistently. Dogs only need to keep it close.

Buy an Insurance Point

You can buy extra points on a positive spread for a bigger middle. Reduces the risk.

Fade the Public

Joe Public loves betting favorites. When they drive negative numbers up, it leaves value on positive underdog spreads.

Spot Pros Taking Points

Sharp money on dogs moves the spread lower, unlike public money. That‘s a good indicator.

How to Handicap Positive Spread Bets

Here are my top tips for picking profitable underdogs ATS:

Study Stylistic Mismatches

• Team A‘s strength might match up very well against Team B‘s weakness.
• Example: A great passing defense matches up well with a one-dimensional rushing offense.

Consider Situational Spots

• Rivalry games and ‘lookahead‘ spots benefit underdogs.
• Example: Michigan State could look past Rutgers before facing Michigan.

Undervalued by the Market

• Be willing to fade the market if you find they overrate the favorite or underrate the dog. Trust your eyes.
• Example: Only a 7 point spread despite Team A blowing out Team B last year.

Talent Uncertainty

• Injuries, weather, and other intangibles reduce talent gaps.
• Example: Rumblings that the Browns starting QB may sit out, making their big spread unlikely to cover.

Coaching Disadvantages

• Some coaches specialize in covering big spreads.
• Example: Mike Leach‘s Air Raid system competes as huge underdogs.

I handicap dogs similar to favorites – studying matchups, statistics, and angles to spot opportunities with inflated positive numbers.

Real World Spread Betting Examples

Let‘s walk through some real life spread betting scenarios to drive home when you‘ll see negative and positive numbers:

FootballSpread Bets

New England Patriots -7 (-110)
Miami Dolphins +7 (-110)

Standard NFL spread with the superior Patriots favored by a touchdown over their divisional rival Dolphins. Bettors must decide if New England is 7+ points better on the field.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 (-115)
Jacksonville Jaguars +10 (-105) 

A double-digit spread in a mismatch between the Chiefs and lowly Jaguars. KC must still win by 11+ to cover as heavy favorites.

Dallas Cowboys -2.5 (-105)
Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 (-115)

Rivalry game with the Cowboys narrow road favorites by just a field goal. Low spread indicates an expected close game between these evenly matched foes.

Basketball Spread Bets

Los Angeles Lakers -5
Sacramento Kings +5

In the NBA, the Lakers would be 5 point road chalk against the Kings. LA would need to win by 6+ to cover the basketball spread.

Gonzaga -15
Portland +15

College basketball produces some massive spreads when top-ranked teams face smaller schools. Here, Gonzaga is a 15-point favorite over plucky underdog Portland.

Brooklyn Nets -1.5
Boston Celtics +1.5

Another spread in a pick ‘em range for what the oddsmakers expect will be a hotly contested playoff matchup between Boston and Brooklyn.

Hockey Spread Bets

Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+140)
Montreal Canadiens +1.5 (-160)

NHL spreads are called puck lines and the favored Lightning must win by 2+ goals to cover as short -1.5 chalk. Montreal can lose by 1 and still hit the +1.5 spread.

Hopefully these real life examples illustrate when you‘ll see small or large, negative or positive spreads across the major sports. Now let‘s get into how to actually place spread bets.

Step-by-Step Guide to Betting Negative Spreads

Let‘s walk through the process of making a sharp negative spread wager:

Find the Bet

Use my analysis to pick a superior favorite you expect to dominate their opponent. Identify bets with value.

Determine Your Bet Size

Figure out how much you want to risk on the spread bet. I suggest 1-5% of your bankroll per bet.

Place Your Wager

Take the bet at the sportsbook, either online or in-person. A typical NFL spread would be -110 odds.

Watch the Game

Sweat it out as you hope your pick covers the large point spread. Enjoy rooting for points!

Collect Your Winnings

If your team covers, head back to the sportsbook to collect your profits! If not, get ‘em next time.

It‘s a simple process. The key is using smart handicapping to pick the right teams that can comfortably cover negative spreads.

Step-by-Step Guide to Betting Positive Spreads

Here is how easy it is to bet spreads on juicy underdogs:

Find the Bet

Use my tips to identify attractive underdogs getting a bunch of points in their favor.

Determine Your Bet Size

Decide how much you want to risk. I start with 1 unit = 1% of bankroll.

Place Your Wager

Get a bet ticket on the dog spread, usually around +110 odds in football.

Watch the Game

Root for the underdog to keep it closer than the spread or win outright. Exciting!

Collect Your Winnings

Underdogs covering spreads pay very well. Enjoy turning a profit even if your dog loses.

Shopping around for the best spread odds and prices is key. With the points in your favor, underdogs have a great shot to cover.

Data Insights on Spread Betting

Let‘s explore some revealing betting data that can inform spread betting strategy:

A few observations:

• As spreads get larger in either direction, cover rates converge closer to 50/50.

• Underdogs and favorites both cover around the same rate on comparable spreads.

• There is slight value betting underdogs +3 over favorites -3.

• Virtually no difference between a -7 or +7 spread‘s cover probability.

So this data illustrates that both sides provide almost equal cover value on typical NFL, NBA and college football spreads. No need to force either negative or positive bets.

Common Mistakes Beginners Make Betting Spreads

Watch out for these common novice blunders:

• Blindly betting big favorites because they "should" cover against lesser teams. Still dig into matchups and stats.

• Not understanding you win a negative spread bet on the favorite if they win by the set amount or more. It‘s not just about winning straight up.

• Confusing negative and positive signs. Double check who is the favorite and underdog. Don‘t bet the wrong side!

• Betting artificially inflated spreads just to get an extra half point or more on a side you like. Stick to value numbers.

• Assuming dogs cover positive spreads easily without doing any research. Big underdogs lose blowouts too.

• Parlaying too many big spread favorites together. The risk skyrockets as more teams must cover.

• Going too heavy on spread bets versus your overall bankroll. Have a staking plan.

Pro Tips for Spread Betting Success

Want to win more negative and positive spread bets? Here are my top pro tips:

• Have accounts at multiple sportsbooks to compare spreads and prices. Shop for the best odds.

• Follow line movements carefully to spot steam and reverse line moves signaling sharp action.

• Study coaching tendencies based on points and play styles. This is huge in covering spreads.

• Don‘t bet just for action. Wait patiently for the right spreads at the best prices.

• Be extremely selective betting double-digit college football spreads. Most can‘t cover huge numbers consistently.

• Use teaser and parlay bets sparingly as the house edge increases. But they can be useful in spots.

• Know the difference between covering the spread and just winning the game. Don‘t mix these up.

• Don‘t chase losses by forcing bigger spread bets. Stick to your staking plan and units.

Should You Buy Points on the Spread?

One advanced spread betting technique is buying points to move the spread more in your favor as insurance. Sportsbooks let you adjust the line for a larger vigorish percentage.

Here are two examples:

1. Buying +3 to +3.5 on an underdog. The half point could push the game to a field goal differential.

2. Buying -7 to -7.5 on a favorite to get over the key number of seven.

This can help in certain situations but should be used minimally. The juice on these bets gives the house a big edge long-term.

Only buy points very selectively, like moving off key numbers of 3 or 7 points. Most pros say it‘s not +EV to buy points frequently, especially more than a half point. Tread carefully here and only do it if you have a strong reason.

Should You Tease Spread Bets?

Teaser bets combine two or more spread wagers together in a parlay, allowing you to adjust all the spreads 6, 7 or 10 points in your favor. But the payout odds decrease.

Teasers can help in certain situations:

• Moving a +3 spread to +9 on an underdog.

• Combining multiple spread bets to reduce risk of losing the parlay.

• Moving off key numbers like 3 and 7.

However, winning teasers long-term is very challenging due to the reduced odds. Most sharp bettors say teasers harm the odds significantly compared to normal spread bets.

Use teasers sparingly when you have a strong reason to improve spreads on all sides. Don‘t just randomly throw together teasers all the time hoping they hit.

Key Takeaways: What We Learned About Negative Spreads

Let‘s recap the key points on understanding and attacking negative spread bets:

• Negative spreads indicate the favorite expected to win big in a matchup.

• There are many good reasons to target superior teams laying points.

• You must handicap how teams will perform against the spreads, not just picking winners.

• Shop for the optimal spread prices and watch line moves for smart money.

• There are various ways to successfully analyze teams likely to cover spreads.

• Positive spreads also offer ample betting opportunities on lucrative underdogs.

• Always learn from your winning and losing spread bets to improve.

I hope this guide better prepared you to dominate negative spread betting. You‘re now armed with tons of useful tips and insights to start nailing these wagers like a pro!

Let me know if you have any other spread betting questions. And as always, gamble responsibly my friends!

Your pal,

Terry