Why is the spread a negative number?

Hey friend! If you‘re new to sports betting, you‘ve probably looked at a game and been confused why the spread has a negative number like -7 or -4.5. I know I was definitely puzzled when I first started seeing negative spreads next to certain teams.

But there‘s actually a very simple reason why the spread is a negative number – it indicates which team is the favorite to win that game.

Let me explain further how point spreads work so you can understand why favorites get negative spreads and underdogs get positive spreads.

What is a Point Spread?

Simply put, a point spread is a handicap set by oddsmakers to provide a scoring advantage or disadvantage to certain teams. This advantage/disadvantage is represented by the number, and its purpose is to even out the chances of either team winning a wager.

For example, let‘s say the Kansas City Chiefs are playing the New York Jets. The Chiefs have a much better team and are expected to win fairly easily.

To even things out betting-wise, oddsmakers might set the point spread like this:

Kansas City Chiefs -7
New York Jets +7

Now the Chiefs have to win by more than 7 points to "cover the spread." And the Jets can lose by up to 6 points but still cover their end of the spread.

This is how point spreads level the playing field and provide excitement on both sides of a bet.

So in this scenario, the Chiefs are the "favorite" at -7, while the Jets are the "underdog" at +7.

Favorites are denoted with a negative spread, while underdogs have a positive spread.

Let‘s look at some more examples to drive the point home:

• New England Patriots -4

• Miami Dolphins +4

• Los Angeles Lakers -2

• Chicago Bulls +2

• Alabama Crimson Tide -10.5

• Ole Miss Rebels +10.5

In every case, the team with the negative spread is expected to not only win, but exceed that margin of victory.

Now you might be wondering…

Why Do the Favorites Get the Negative Spread?

This confused me too at first, but it makes sense if you think about it.

The negative spread is essentially a handicap given to the better team to make the match more competitive betting-wise.

Oddsmakers know certain teams like the Patriots or Lakers are far superior to their opponents. To balance action on both sides of a game, they handicap the favorites by making them win by more than just 1 or 2 points.

For underdogs, the positive spread gives them an advantage by allowing them to lose within a certain point range and still cover.

So the negative spread handicaps the favorites, while the positive spread gives a boost to the underdog.

Here are some actual spreads from recent NFL games:

Favorites	Spread	Underdogs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-10.5	Carolina Panthers
Green Bay Packers	-4	Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Rams	-6.5	Seattle Seahawks

You can see how in each match-up, the stronger team is handicapped with a larger negative spread. This is to encourage betting on both sides.

Now let‘s look at a real example…

Chiefs vs Jets: A Case Study

Earlier I used a hypothetical Chiefs vs Jets match-up. Well in Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season, those teams did play – and the actual point spread was:

Kansas City Chiefs -10.5

New York Jets +10.5

The Chiefs were heavy 10.5 point favorites at home. This double-digit spread handicapped the superior Chiefs and gave a generous cushion for the underdog Jets.

According to the Action Network, 60% of bets were coming in on the Chiefs to cover that big number.

In this case, the public bettors were right! The Chiefs dominated and won 35-9, covering the -10.5 spread. Anyone who bet on the Chiefs had a winning ticket.

This is a perfect example of how a large negative spread handicaps the favorites. Despite being given -10.5 points, the Chiefs still covered with room to spare.

How Oddsmakers Set the Spread

At this point you might be wondering – how do oddsmakers actually come up with these point spread numbers anyway? What‘s the process there?

It‘s a complex calculation based on a combination of:

• Team strengths & weaknesses
• Player injuries or absences
• Recent performances
• Head-to-head history
• Home field advantage
• Situational factors like back-to-back games or travel
• Weather forecasts
• Public betting percentages

Oddsmakers take all this information into account when setting an opening spread. They want to encourage equal action on both sides of the game.

Their goal is to get ~50% of bets and money wagered on the favorite, and ~50% of action on the underdog.

This way the house is guaranteed profit from the built-in vigorish, and they don‘t care who actually wins the game. Pretty clever!

Key Numbers Matter

Once a spread is set, it will then move depending on how bets are flowing. And certain key numbers like 3, 7, and 10 play an important role in spread movement.

For example, a spread may move from Chiefs -9.5 to Chiefs -10. Crossing that key number 10 is significant for covering the spread.

Likewise, a spread that moves from Dolphins +2.5 to Dolphins +3 is noteworthy. That extra half point matters in covering that key field goal number.

Studying trends and statistical history around these "key numbers" is crucial for sports bettors. The difference of a half or full point can make or break a cover.

Don‘t Chase Losses by Betting Big Favorites

Beginners often assume that heavy favorites at -10 or more are a sure thing. But I‘ve learned the hard way that big spreads like that are no guarantee!

Back in 2019, I lost money betting on the Patriots as 17 point favorites over the Dolphins. The Pats were up 27-0 in the 4th quarter but took their foot off the gas and ended up winning only 27-24 – nowhere near covering that massive spread. I chased my losses and assumed the Patriots would dominate…but the spread bit me badly.

The moral is – don‘t get sucked into betting big favorites just because of a scary-looking negative spread. Upsets happen, and monster spreads are hard for any team to cover.

No matter how good a team looks on paper, anything can happen on the field to ruin a cover. So while favorites get saddled with a handicapping negative spread, they‘re never a lock so be careful.

The Difference for Positive Spread Underdogs

Now that we‘ve explored negative spreads for favorites, let‘s flip it around and talk positive spreads for underdogs.

We know underdogs are given a positive spread for a betting advantage, since they‘re expected to lose outright.

Here are the key differences to understand with positive spreads:

• They allow the underdog to lose within a specified range and still cover
• Exceeding the positive spread means winning outright
• Betting on underdogs with spreads up to +3 is lower risk
• Large positive spreads like +14 or higher are very difficult to cover
• The worst case is losing by exactly the spread amount ("pushes")

So while favorites need to overcome their negative spread, underdogs just need to keep the game within the positive spread to cash tickets.

Much lower bar!

Understanding the nuances of how positive and negative spreads work is critical to betting spreads successfully. Don‘t worry – with a bit of practice, you‘ll be reading and crunching spreads like a pro.

Point Spreads Have Been Around for Decades

Can you believe that point spreads have been part of sports betting since the 1940s?

Legend has it that spreads originated in Chicago when Charles McNeil a mathematician who worked for bookies started handicapping stronger teams. Oddsmakers realized this balanced betting on both sides.

From these humble beginnings, point spreads evolved into the standard way sportsbooks operate today. Millions of dollars now exchange hands based on teams covering negative or positive spreads.

So next time you see a negative spread, know that it traces back over 70 years! Those negative numbers handicap today‘s football and basketball powerhouses just like they did decades ago.

Spreads Can Be a Fun Ride

Sports betting spreads may seem complicated initially, but they provide excitement and winning opportunities on both favorite and underdog sides.

Once you understand that negative spreads handicap superior teams, while positive spreads give a boost to underdogs, you‘ve grasped the key logic.

I hope breaking down the history, rationale and numbers behind point spreads has helped explain why they exist and how to use them to your betting advantage.

With your new spread knowledge, let‘s enjoy the thrill of sweating out our bets as the games go down to the wire. Those close covers and missed spreads by a half point are all part of the sports betting rollercoaster.

Strap in and embrace the ride – I‘ll be right there riding along with you!